Reads as: riskier than 83.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
9
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Federal penalty spike
23.1x prior
this facility
2026-07-29
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.0 vs natl
POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
STONEWALL HCG LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
S C HOLDINGS ILLINOIS LLC
9 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
62% fined
CHANKIN KEVIN
13 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
LINCOLN HCG LLC
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
MERMELSTEIN MICHAEL
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.23
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.00
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.33
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
56.8
3.23
0.28
1.00
1.96
3.00
1.2%
2025Q3
92
58.0
3.24
0.31
0.90
2.02
2.99
9.3%
2025Q2
91
55.0
3.05
0.26
0.84
1.95
2.92
9.1%
2025Q1
90
52.1
2.79
0.13
0.71
1.96
2.74
7.0%
2024Q4
92
49.6
2.87
0.31
0.70
1.85
2.69
17.3%
2024Q3
92
45.4
3.13
0.31
0.87
1.95
2.83
21.0%
2024Q2
91
52.9
2.73
0.31
0.72
1.70
2.49
30.1%
2024Q1
91
52.8
2.59
0.50
0.51
1.58
2.51
16.1%
2023Q4
92
52.0
2.61
0.55
0.46
1.61
2.54
8.1%
2023Q3
92
54.5
2.33
0.45
0.56
1.32
2.24
0.0%
2023Q2
91
52.9
2.65
0.38
0.71
1.56
2.54
0.0%
2023Q1
90
47.7
3.03
0.45
0.82
1.76
2.70
0.0%
2022Q4
92
52.5
2.89
0.46
0.82
1.61
2.61
0.1%
2022Q3
92
55.6
2.94
0.42
0.82
1.71
2.64
10.1%
2022Q2
91
54.4
3.19
0.41
0.89
1.89
2.86
28.2%
2022Q1
90
53.6
3.00
0.59
0.67
1.74
2.78
23.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-01-28
2026-01-16
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2026-02-10
2026-01-16
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2026-01-28
2026-01-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-01-26
2026-01-16
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2026-01-28
2025-03-04
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-03-18
2023-12-12
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2023-12-23
2023-12-12
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-23
2023-12-12
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2023-12-23
2023-12-12
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2023-12-23
2023-12-12
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
F
2024-01-31
2023-12-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-12-23
2023-12-12
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
F
2024-01-31
2023-09-22
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-09-25
2023-09-22
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2023-09-25
2023-09-22
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2023-09-25
2023-09-22
Health · complaint
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2023-09-25
2022-12-19
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2023-01-13
2022-12-19
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2023-01-13
2022-12-19
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-01-13
2022-12-19
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
E
2023-01-13
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
S & C HOLDINGS ILLINOIS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
30%
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINCOLN HCG LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MERMELSTEIN, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
STONEWALL HCG LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHANKIN, KEVIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
BARRY REALTY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BARRY REALTY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-02-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FRENCH, CANDIRA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
POINTE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
AHARON WEISS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AVROHOM RIBIAT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL MERMELSTEIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHIMON WEBSTER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YERUCHOM LEVOVITZ
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KEVIN CHANKIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CANDIRA FRENCH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$225,553
$7,491
—
—
$55,394
2
propco
2023-12-31
$94,735
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-01-31
$6,761
$2,421
$3,548
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$81,128
$29,054
$42,574
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$72,061
$30,618
$31,943
—
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$87,804
$37,128
$41,176
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17149
acs median gross
0
$277
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17149
fmr
0
$632
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17149
acs median gross
1
$484
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17149
fmr
1
$698
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17149
acs median gross
2
$705
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17149
fmr
2
$916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17149
acs median gross
3
$763
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17149
fmr
3
$1,114
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17149
acs median gross
4
$1,036
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17149
fmr
4
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17149
acs median gross
$676
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17149
acs recent mover gross
$611
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62312
acs median gross
1
$477
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62312
acs median gross
2
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62312
acs median gross
3
$695
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62312
acs median gross
$655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 62312
payment standard 110
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
payment standard 90
0
$567
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
safmr
0
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
payment standard 110
1
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
payment standard 90
1
$630
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
safmr
1
$700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
payment standard 110
2
$1,012
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
payment standard 90
2
$828
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
safmr
2
$920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
payment standard 110
3
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
payment standard 90
3
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
safmr
3
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
payment standard 110
4
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
payment standard 90
4
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62312
safmr
4
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.