Reads as: riskier than 33.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
19
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.7 vs natl
WILHELM NAFTALI
81 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.2 vs natl
CURIS SERVICES LLC
85 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.1 vs natl
TUROFSKY STEVEN
87 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.4 vs natl
SPECTOR JENNIFER
93 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
PETERSEN SNF HOLDINGS LLC
14 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
TUROFSKY STEVEN
84 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
SPECTOR JENNIFER
90 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
CURIS SERVICES LLC
81 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
WILHELM NAFTALI
78 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
93% fined
PETERSEN SNF HOLDINGS LLC
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
83% fined
AXIOM CARE LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
83% fined
DAUBER ELIANA
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
83% fined
DAUBER JONATHAN
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
83% fined
WEBB JESSICA
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
54% fined
WILHELM NAFTALI
81 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
53% fined
SPECTOR JENNIFER
93 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
52% fined
CURIS SERVICES LLC
85 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
52% fined
TUROFSKY STEVEN
87 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
RIDER SHANNON
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.82
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.38
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.06
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.11
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
33.0
3.82
0.38
1.23
2.21
3.06
0.0%
2025Q3
92
34.7
3.58
0.45
1.06
2.08
2.97
0.0%
2025Q2
91
34.4
3.49
0.34
1.01
2.14
2.93
0.0%
2025Q1
90
35.2
3.28
0.30
0.90
2.08
2.97
0.0%
2024Q4
92
36.7
3.17
0.31
0.84
2.01
2.97
0.0%
2024Q3
92
37.4
2.90
0.40
0.59
1.91
2.68
0.0%
2024Q2
91
38.2
2.64
0.46
0.40
1.78
2.43
0.0%
2024Q1
91
35.4
2.52
0.49
0.48
1.56
2.29
0.9%
2023Q4
92
35.6
2.61
0.58
0.43
1.60
2.43
0.0%
2023Q3
92
35.5
2.84
0.53
0.55
1.75
2.70
0.0%
2023Q2
91
33.3
2.97
0.50
0.63
1.84
2.80
0.0%
2023Q1
90
34.6
3.01
0.37
0.71
1.93
2.93
0.0%
2022Q4
92
33.9
3.30
0.62
0.49
2.19
3.22
0.0%
2022Q3
92
40.0
2.70
0.45
0.42
1.83
2.67
0.0%
2022Q2
91
35.7
3.07
0.55
0.49
2.03
2.87
0.0%
2022Q1
90
36.3
2.99
0.52
0.48
1.99
2.79
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2025-12-29
2025-12-05
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
F
2025-12-19
2025-12-05
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
E
2025-12-19
2024-11-22
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-12-04
2024-11-22
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2024-12-04
2024-11-22
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-12-05
2024-10-04
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-10-21
2024-07-10
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2024-08-08
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2024-06-24
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2024-06-24
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-06-24
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-06-24
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-06-24
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2024-06-24
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-06-24
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-06-24
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
L
2024-08-13
2024-06-10
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2024-08-08
2023-12-06
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2023-12-28
2023-12-06
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2023-12-28
2023-12-06
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2023-12-28
2023-12-06
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-02-22
2023-12-06
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-12-28
2023-12-06
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-02-22
2023-12-06
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
G
2024-02-22
2023-12-06
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
F
2024-02-22
2023-12-06
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2024-02-22
2023-12-06
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2024-02-22
2023-12-06
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
F
2024-02-22
2023-12-06
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2023-12-28
2023-12-06
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-12-28
2023-12-06
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
F
2023-12-28
2023-07-06
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-07-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
32
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ROSICLARE LAND COMPANY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-12-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ROSICLARE LAND COMPANY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AXIOM CARE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-19
current
pecos_ownership
AXIOM CARE, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
BANEY, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
CURIS SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAUBER, ELIANA
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAUBER, JONATHAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
LUCAS, KAREN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
PETERSEN SNF HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-02-19
current
pecos_ownership
RIDER, SHANNON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPECTOR, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
TUROFSKY, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WEBB, JESSICA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILHELM, NAFTALI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER SPECTOR
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JESSICA WEBB
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROSICLARE LAND COMPANY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-07-31
hcris_a_8_1
ROSICLARE LAND COMPANY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ROSICLARE LAND COMPANY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ROSICLARE LAND COMPANY
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-08-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JONATHAN DAUBER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID A BERKOWITZ DELTA TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BERKOWITZ
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YOSEF MEYSTEL
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELIANA DAUBER
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN LUCAS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE BANEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NAFTALI WILHELM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHANNON RIDER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN TUROFSKY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-11-30
$291,730
$132,793
$158,937
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$396,687
—
$74,707
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$435,740
—
$85,566
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$480,085
—
$100,997
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$244,227
—
$78,366
—
—
2
propco
2020-07-31
$222,779
—
—
—
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
29
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17069
acs median gross
0
$232
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17069
fmr
0
$632
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17069
acs median gross
1
$239
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17069
fmr
1
$698
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17069
acs median gross
2
$657
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17069
fmr
2
$916
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17069
acs median gross
3
$550
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17069
fmr
3
$1,098
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17069
fmr
4
$1,308
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17069
acs median gross
$379
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17069
acs recent mover gross
$650
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62982
acs median gross
0
$236
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62982
acs median gross
2
$832
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 62982
acs median gross
$440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 62982
payment standard 110
0
$792
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
payment standard 90
0
$648
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
safmr
0
$720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
payment standard 110
1
$869
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
payment standard 90
1
$711
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
safmr
1
$790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
payment standard 110
2
$1,144
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
payment standard 90
2
$936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
safmr
2
$1,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
payment standard 110
3
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
payment standard 90
3
$1,125
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
safmr
3
$1,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
payment standard 110
4
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
payment standard 90
4
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 62982
safmr
4
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.