Reads as: riskier than 35.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
25
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.8 vs natl
SEITLER DOVID
35 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.7 vs natl
YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
39 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+32.3 vs natl
DAVID A BERKOWITZ DELTA TRUST
38 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.8 vs natl
APERION CARE EXEC HOLDINGS LLC
26 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.7 vs natl
CHASE OFFICE LLC
82 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+29.0 vs natl
JOSHUA HOFFMAN TRUST
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.7 vs natl
WILHELM NAFTALI
81 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.2 vs natl
CURIS SERVICES LLC
85 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.1 vs natl
TUROFSKY STEVEN
87 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.4 vs natl
SPECTOR JENNIFER
93 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.4 vs natl
APERION CONSULTING LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.3 vs natl
BERKOWITZ DAVID
77 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
MEYSTEL YOSEF
77 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.9 vs natl
APERION CARE INC
29 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.4 vs natl
FRANKEL FREDERICK
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
ULBERT LISA
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.4 vs natl
YOSEF MEYSTEL DECLARATION OF TR OF YOSEF MEYSTEL TTEE
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.9 vs natl
GOLDFARB BRIAN
30 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
13 chains
CHASE OFFICE LLC
75 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
SPECTOR JENNIFER
90 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
TUROFSKY STEVEN
84 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
APERION CARE INC
28 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
WILHELM NAFTALI
78 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
ULBERT LISA
29 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
BERKOWITZ DAVID
73 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.80
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.77
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.82
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.79
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
82.7
2.80
0.77
0.12
1.91
2.82
0.1%
2025Q3
92
79.5
2.96
0.81
0.07
2.08
2.91
0.1%
2025Q2
91
76.3
3.11
0.81
0.08
2.22
3.03
0.1%
2025Q1
90
82.6
2.93
0.78
0.08
2.06
2.88
0.1%
2024Q4
92
82.2
2.88
0.80
0.10
1.98
2.78
0.1%
2024Q3
92
73.7
3.30
0.79
0.17
2.35
3.19
0.1%
2024Q2
91
70.1
3.43
0.70
0.28
2.45
3.25
0.1%
2024Q1
91
70.4
3.35
0.68
0.35
2.32
3.21
0.1%
2023Q4
92
74.1
3.00
0.59
0.22
2.19
2.85
0.1%
2023Q3
92
70.9
3.04
0.74
0.11
2.19
2.91
0.0%
2023Q2
91
67.4
3.01
0.77
0.08
2.16
2.85
0.0%
2023Q1
90
62.0
3.27
0.79
0.19
2.29
3.15
0.0%
2022Q4
92
61.9
3.12
0.78
0.19
2.15
2.96
0.0%
2022Q3
92
59.3
3.10
0.78
0.20
2.12
2.81
0.0%
2022Q2
91
57.1
3.02
0.75
0.23
2.04
2.75
0.0%
2022Q1
90
59.3
3.12
0.66
0.29
2.17
2.80
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 6E × 2F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-13
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-03-18
2025-03-13
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-03-18
2025-03-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2025-03-18
2024-05-17
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-05-29
2024-05-17
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-05-29
2024-05-17
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-05-29
2024-05-17
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-05-29
2024-05-17
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-05-29
2024-05-17
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-29
2023-04-20
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-04-27
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
44
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
APERION CARE EXEC HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
APERION CARE INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
APERION CONSULTING, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BERKOWITZ, DAVID
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
CHASE OFFICE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CHASE OFFICE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CURIS SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID A BERKOWITZ DELTA TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FOX PROP LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-07-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FOX PROP LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FOX PROP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
FRANKEL, FREDERICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEIGEL, KATHERINE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOLDFARB, BRIAN
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA HOFFMAN TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAGTAPON, ENRICO GREGARIO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAGTAPON, ENRICO GREGARIO
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-08
current
pecos_ownership
LAPTAPON, MARIA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEYSTEL, YOSEF
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-25
current
pecos_ownership
SEITLER, DOVID
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHROFF, PRANAV KUMAR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SPECTOR, JENNIFER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
TUROFSKY, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ULBERT, LISA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILHELM, NAFTALI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
YOSEF MEYSTEL DECLARATION OF TR OF YOSEF MEYSTEL TTEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
YOSEF MEYSTEL DELTA TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER SPECTOR
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LISA ULBERT
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN DAUBER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
49%
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN GOLDFARB
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOVID SEITLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ENRICO GREGARIO LAGTAPON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK FRANKEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
H.M. REAL ESTATE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
H.M. REAL ESTATE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
H.M. REAL ESTATE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
H.M. REAL ESTATE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
ended 2023-06-30
hcris_a_8_1
JOSHUA HOFFMAN TR JOSHUA HOFFMAN TTEE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHERINE GEIGEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIA LAPTAPON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NAFTALI WILHELM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PRANAV KUMAR SHROFF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN TUROFSKY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,572,874
$1,098,036
—
—
$84,897
13
propco
2023-12-31
$758,862
$582,141
$52,416
—
$49,036
13
propco
2023-06-30
$451,928
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$848,009
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$859,241
—
—
—
$2,448
3
propco
2020-12-31
$923,462
—
—
—
$4,188
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17089
acs median gross
0
$1,090
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
1
$1,175
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
2
$1,451
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
3
$1,771
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
4
$1,883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
5
$1,770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
acs median gross
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
acs recent mover gross
$1,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60120
acs median gross
0
$886
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60120
acs median gross
1
$1,090
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60120
acs median gross
2
$1,417
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60120
acs median gross
3
$1,706
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60120
acs median gross
4
$1,727
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60120
acs median gross
$1,371
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60120
acs recent mover gross
$1,773
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60120
payment standard 110
0
$1,496
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
payment standard 90
0
$1,224
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
safmr
0
$1,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
payment standard 110
1
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
payment standard 90
1
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
safmr
1
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
payment standard 110
2
$1,804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
payment standard 90
2
$1,476
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
safmr
2
$1,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
payment standard 110
3
$2,321
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
payment standard 90
3
$1,899
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
safmr
3
$2,110
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
payment standard 110
4
$2,684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
payment standard 90
4
$2,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60120
safmr
4
$2,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.