Composite
47.3 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 75.5 | 63.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 17.42 | in index |
| staffing risk | 71.0 | 71.0 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 13.65 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 43.7 | 32.6 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.08 | in index |
| chow risk | 54.5 | 52.7 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 6.29 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 25.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 80.5 | F | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 63.3 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 32.6 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 71.0 | D | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 66.9 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 46.9 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 63.7 | C | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 64.1 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.5 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 32.5 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 71.0 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 71.0 | D | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 7.33 | -1.14 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.93 | -0.66 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | -0.40 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain size (log) | 0.00 | +1.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | +0.87 | |
| Occupancy | 0.93 | -0.74 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 7.33 | -0.18 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | MI median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 2.97 | 3.52 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.37 | 0.47 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.86 | 3.32 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.01 | 3.61 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 36.1 | 2.97 | 0.37 | 0.63 | 1.97 | 2.86 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 36.6 | 2.87 | 0.36 | 0.64 | 1.87 | 2.67 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 36.9 | 2.96 | 0.42 | 0.57 | 1.97 | 2.92 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 37.6 | 3.00 | 0.38 | 0.59 | 2.03 | 2.98 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 36.8 | 3.10 | 0.45 | 0.60 | 2.06 | 2.92 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 38.2 | 2.84 | 0.52 | 0.50 | 1.82 | 2.69 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 36.4 | 2.91 | 0.55 | 0.54 | 1.82 | 2.84 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 31.1 | 3.10 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 1.89 | 2.98 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 29.5 | 3.17 | 0.42 | 0.78 | 1.97 | 3.22 | 8.8% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 30.9 | 3.02 | 0.20 | 0.92 | 1.90 | 2.96 | 4.1% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 30.7 | 3.08 | 0.15 | 0.99 | 1.94 | 3.20 | 4.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 32.4 | 3.44 | 0.07 | 1.15 | 2.22 | 3.21 | 18.1% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 34.1 | 2.71 | 0.24 | 0.88 | 1.60 | 2.67 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 35.9 | 2.64 | 0.38 | 0.61 | 1.66 | 2.59 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 33.0 | 2.86 | 0.20 | 0.96 | 1.70 | 2.89 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 35.7 | 2.26 | 0.26 | 0.86 | 1.15 | 2.44 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Health · complaint | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2026-05-28 |
| 2026-04-22 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | D | 2026-05-28 |
| 2025-09-04 | Health · complaint | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2025-10-01 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0578 | Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0655 | Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0732 | Post nurse staffing information every day. | C | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0757 | Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-04-18 |
| 2025-03-27 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2025-04-18 |
| 2024-04-17 | Health | F0584 | Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely. | E | 2024-05-09 |
| 2024-04-17 | Health | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2024-05-09 |
| 2024-04-17 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2024-05-09 |
| 2023-12-21 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | E | 2024-01-17 |
| 2023-12-21 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | E | 2024-01-17 |
| 2023-12-21 | Health · complaint | F0626 | Permit a resident to return to the nursing home after hospitalization or therapeutic leave that exceeds bed-hold policy. | D | 2024-01-17 |
| 2023-12-21 | Health · complaint | F0658 | Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality. | E | 2024-01-17 |
| 2023-12-21 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2024-01-17 |
| 2023-12-21 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-01-17 |
| 2023-12-21 | Health · complaint | F0730 | Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training. | E | 2024-01-17 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | E | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0727 | Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis. | E | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | E | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0882 | Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home. | D | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0883 | Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations. | E | 2023-05-03 |
| 2023-03-31 | Health | F0921 | Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public. | E | 2023-05-03 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ST LOUIS INVESTMENT | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2023-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ST LOUIS INVESTMENT | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2024-01-01 | current | hcris_a_8_1 |
| MCGOURTY, DIANE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| UDDIN, FAHIM | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2019-01-08 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DIANE MCGOURTY | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2019-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ST LOUIS INVESTMENT | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2022-01-01 | ended 2022-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| ST LOUIS INVESTMENT | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | 100% | 2020-01-01 | ended 2020-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| FAHIM UDDIN | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | — | 2019-01-08 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ST LOUIS INVESTMENT | Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider | — | 2021-01-01 | ended 2021-12-31 | hcris_a_8_1 |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-04-01 | — | RIVERSIDE HEALTHCARE CENTER LLC | PINE RIVER HEALTHCARE LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-01 | Niles Care Center, LLC | — | — | — | 100 | NILES CARE CENTER LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Medilodge of Zeeland | — | — | — | 138 | ZEELAND OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Muskegon | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS MUSKEGON OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Kent-Crossing | — | — | — | 182 | OPTALIS BELTLINE OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation at Leonard | — | — | — | 69 | OPTALIS LEONARD OPCO LLC |
| 2025-07-01 | Optalis Health & Rehabilitation of Ionia | — | — | — | 107 | OPTALIS IONIA OPCO LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | The Orchards at Big Rapids | — | — | — | 100 | BIG RAPIDS MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-31 | The Orchards at Lapeer | — | — | — | 87 | LAPEER MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-12-01 | Wexford Senior Care Center | — | — | — | 133 | WEXFORD SENIOR CARE CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | The Orchards at Canterbury on the Lake | — | — | — | 128 | CANTERBURY MI OPCO LLC |
| 2024-09-03 | Villa at Borgess Place | — | — | — | 101 | VILLA AT BORGESS PLACE LLC |
| 2024-08-07 | Optalis Health and Rehabilitation of Grand Rapids | — | — | — | 120 | OPTALIS GRAND RAPIDS OPCO LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 26057 | acs median gross | 0 | $754 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26057 | fmr | 0 | $689 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26057 | acs median gross | 1 | $558 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26057 | fmr | 1 | $742 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26057 | acs median gross | 2 | $861 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26057 | fmr | 2 | $973 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26057 | acs median gross | 3 | $948 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26057 | fmr | 3 | $1,304 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26057 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,074 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26057 | fmr | 4 | $1,455 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 26057 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,014 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 26057 | acs median gross | $834 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 26057 | acs recent mover gross | $891 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48880 | acs median gross | 1 | $860 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48880 | acs median gross | 2 | $838 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48880 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,027 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 48880 | acs median gross | $802 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 48880 | acs recent mover gross | $1,048 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $869 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $711 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | safmr | 0 | $790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $869 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $711 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | safmr | 1 | $790 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,133 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $927 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | safmr | 2 | $1,030 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,485 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,215 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | safmr | 3 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,650 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,350 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 48880 | safmr | 4 | $1,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |