Reads as: riskier than 55.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.6 vs natl
ZEFFREN EITAN
14 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
ZEFFREN EITAN
14 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.19
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.87
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.88
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.31
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
65.3
3.19
0.87
0.36
1.95
2.88
0.0%
2025Q3
92
70.1
3.28
0.91
0.41
1.96
2.96
0.0%
2025Q2
91
69.3
3.45
1.11
0.27
2.07
3.03
0.0%
2025Q1
90
66.8
3.53
1.06
0.40
2.07
3.03
0.0%
2024Q4
92
69.4
3.33
0.94
0.42
1.98
2.91
0.0%
2024Q3
92
69.9
3.07
0.56
0.52
1.98
2.94
0.0%
2024Q2
91
70.6
3.01
0.66
0.53
1.82
2.87
0.0%
2024Q1
91
67.3
2.85
0.67
0.49
1.69
2.74
0.0%
2023Q4
92
68.4
2.93
0.74
0.57
1.63
2.74
0.0%
2023Q3
92
73.7
2.53
0.76
0.46
1.32
2.29
0.0%
2023Q2
91
68.4
2.69
0.87
0.36
1.47
2.53
0.0%
2023Q1
90
69.4
2.69
0.73
0.48
1.48
2.45
0.0%
2022Q4
92
64.4
2.69
0.69
0.53
1.47
2.52
0.0%
2022Q3
92
59.0
2.84
0.67
0.66
1.51
2.67
0.0%
2022Q2
91
51.0
3.01
0.81
0.50
1.70
2.95
0.0%
2022Q1
90
50.1
3.15
0.79
0.60
1.76
3.08
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
27
D × 20E × 5F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-09
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-04-17
2025-12-24
Health · complaint
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2026-01-13
2025-04-29
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2025-04-30
2025-03-06
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2025-03-11
2025-03-06
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-03-11
2025-03-06
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2025-03-11
2025-03-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-03-11
2025-03-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-03-11
2024-10-09
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-10-24
2024-06-24
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2024-07-05
2024-02-09
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-02-12
2024-02-09
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-02-12
2024-02-09
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-02-12
2024-02-09
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-02-12
2024-02-09
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2024-02-12
2024-02-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-02-12
2024-02-09
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2024-02-12
2023-01-12
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-01-29
2023-01-12
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-01-30
2023-01-12
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-01-27
2023-01-12
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
E
2023-01-30
2023-01-12
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-01-29
2023-01-12
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-01-29
2023-01-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-01-30
2023-01-12
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2023-01-29
2023-01-12
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2023-01-29
2023-01-12
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
E
2023-01-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PHC OSWEGO HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
99%
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
EDSS VENTURES LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEHTA, NIKI
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZEFFREN, EITAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
EITAN ZEFFREN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
60%
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EZ HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
60%
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
REG 2018 IRREVOCABLE TRUST U/A/D 1/1/18
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
7257 N. LINCOLN AVENUE
—
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
7257 N. LINCOLN AVENUE
—
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
NIKI MEHTA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$297,143
—
—
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$250,852
—
—
—
$53,762
3
—
2023-05-31
$348,532
—
—
$6,032
$32,865
28
—
2022-12-31
$791,916
—
—
$14,580
$63,038
28
—
2021-12-31
$442,218
—
—
$526
$73,123
36
propco
2020-12-31
$259,267
—
—
—
—
34
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17093
acs median gross
0
$680
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17093
fmr
0
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17093
acs median gross
1
$1,196
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17093
fmr
1
$1,562
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17093
acs median gross
2
$1,700
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17093
fmr
2
$2,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17093
acs median gross
3
$2,084
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17093
fmr
3
$2,819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17093
acs median gross
4
$2,184
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17093
fmr
4
$2,918
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17093
acs median gross
5
$2,669
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17093
acs median gross
$1,781
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17093
acs recent mover gross
$1,802
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60543
acs median gross
1
$1,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60543
acs median gross
2
$1,732
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60543
acs median gross
3
$2,061
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60543
acs median gross
4
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60543
acs median gross
$1,616
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60543
acs recent mover gross
$2,545
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60543
payment standard 110
0
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
payment standard 90
0
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
safmr
0
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
payment standard 110
1
$1,397
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
payment standard 90
1
$1,143
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
safmr
1
$1,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
payment standard 110
2
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
payment standard 90
2
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
safmr
2
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
payment standard 110
3
$2,508
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
payment standard 90
3
$2,052
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
safmr
3
$2,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
payment standard 110
4
$2,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
payment standard 90
4
$2,124
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60543
safmr
4
$2,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.