Reads as: riskier than 58.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
14
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.2 vs natl
LACKE CARRIG KAREN
5 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
11 chains
TWOMAGNETS LLC
45 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
80% fined
LACKE CARRIG KAREN
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
67% fined
DUPONT LORI
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
57% fined
SHERMAN STEPHANIE
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
57% fined
GEHLER MIRIAM
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
57% fined
KERWIN ANDREW
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
57% fined
KUMAR RAJEEV SHIVA
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
57% fined
LYNN NICHOLAS
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
57% fined
REHAB SOLUTIONS GROUP LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
PARTNERS IN WEALTH MANAGEMENT INC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
PINION LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
JT AND ASSOCIATES LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
HBT IT LLC
6 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.77
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
1.16
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.25
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.98
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
40.4
4.77
1.16
0.41
3.20
4.25
16.5%
2025Q3
92
40.5
4.71
1.21
0.25
3.26
4.31
12.5%
2025Q2
91
42.1
4.77
1.04
0.28
3.46
4.20
14.1%
2025Q1
90
42.7
4.57
1.09
0.44
3.04
4.04
11.3%
2024Q4
92
43.6
4.50
1.02
0.43
3.04
4.07
9.5%
2024Q3
92
38.7
4.38
0.88
0.55
2.94
4.04
9.7%
2024Q2
91
37.6
4.24
0.87
0.50
2.88
3.77
9.6%
2024Q1
91
36.4
4.40
0.72
0.71
2.97
4.08
9.3%
2023Q4
92
37.2
4.29
0.80
0.60
2.90
4.08
9.4%
2023Q3
92
38.3
4.00
0.65
0.63
2.72
3.96
12.7%
2023Q2
91
37.6
4.37
0.83
0.63
2.91
4.18
10.5%
2023Q1
90
40.0
4.05
0.72
0.58
2.75
3.79
11.2%
2022Q4
92
39.2
4.05
0.56
0.75
2.74
3.87
12.5%
2022Q3
92
35.2
4.42
0.62
0.86
2.94
4.24
17.7%
2022Q2
91
38.4
4.18
0.74
0.78
2.67
3.98
0.0%
2022Q1
90
35.9
4.72
1.12
0.73
2.87
4.57
0.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-01-29
2025-10-09
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-11-01
2025-03-10
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-04-03
2025-03-10
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-04-03
2024-06-06
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-07-15
2024-06-06
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-07-15
2024-06-06
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-07-15
2024-06-06
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-07-15
2024-06-06
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-07-15
2024-06-06
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2024-07-15
2024-06-06
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-07-15
2024-06-06
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-07-15
2024-02-20
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-03-18
2024-02-20
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-03-20
2023-06-30
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
E
2023-07-28
2023-06-30
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-30
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2023-07-28
2023-05-10
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-06-16
2023-05-10
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-06-16
2023-05-10
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-06-16
2023-05-10
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-06-16
2023-05-10
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2023-06-16
2023-05-10
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-06-16
2023-05-10
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2023-06-16
2023-05-10
Health
F0805
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food prepared in a form designed to meet individual needs.
D
2023-06-16
2023-05-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-06-16
2022-06-08
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2022-07-10
2022-06-08
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-07-10
2022-06-08
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-07-10
2022-06-08
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2022-07-10
2022-06-08
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-07-05
2022-06-08
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2022-07-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-18
current
pecos_ownership
CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUPONT, LORI
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEHLER, MIRIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-03-14
current
pecos_ownership
HBT IT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
JT AND ASSOCIATES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KERWIN, ANDREW
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
KUMAR, RAJEEV SHIVA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2012-04-24
current
pecos_ownership
LACKE (CARRIG), KAREN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LYNN, NICHOLAS
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2011-03-14
current
pecos_ownership
PARTNERS IN WEALTH MANAGEMENT, INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PINION, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1995-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REHAB SOLUTIONS GROUP, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHERMAN, STEPHANIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-08-12
current
pecos_ownership
SIEBEL, ROBERT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
1996-12-19
current
pecos_ownership
SWEIS, NADEEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
TWOMAGNETS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ZAIO, NOREEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
CARRIAGE HEALTHCARE COMPANIES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
—
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT SIEBEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
100%
1996-12-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN LACKE (CARRIG)
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI DUPONT
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MIRIAM GEHLER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2011-03-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICHOLAS LYNN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2011-03-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RAJEEV KUMAR
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
0%
2012-04-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW KERWIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2016-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NADEEN SWEIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NOREEN ZAIO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHANIE SHERMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-08-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$161,796
—
—
—
—
1
—
2023-12-31
$142,473
—
—
—
—
1
—
2022-12-31
$154,807
—
$154,807
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$150,364
—
$150,364
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$86,869
—
$86,869
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17111
acs median gross
0
$1,027
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17111
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17111
acs median gross
1
$1,067
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17111
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17111
acs median gross
2
$1,440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17111
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17111
acs median gross
3
$1,743
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17111
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17111
acs median gross
4
$1,964
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17111
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17111
acs median gross
5
$2,105
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17111
acs median gross
$1,401
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17111
acs recent mover gross
$1,434
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60014
acs median gross
0
$1,106
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60014
acs median gross
1
$1,176
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60014
acs median gross
2
$1,445
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60014
acs median gross
3
$1,732
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60014
acs median gross
4
$2,554
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60014
acs median gross
$1,471
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60014
acs recent mover gross
$1,679
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60014
payment standard 110
0
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
payment standard 90
0
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
safmr
0
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
payment standard 110
1
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
payment standard 90
1
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
safmr
1
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
payment standard 110
2
$1,991
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
payment standard 90
2
$1,629
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
safmr
2
$1,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
payment standard 110
3
$2,563
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
payment standard 90
3
$2,097
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
safmr
3
$2,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
payment standard 110
4
$2,970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
payment standard 90
4
$2,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60014
safmr
4
$2,700
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.