Composite
68.6 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| regulatory risk | 95.6 | 93.9 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 22.06 | in index |
| financial risk | 65.9 | 56.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 15.21 | in index |
| staffing risk | 51.4 | 51.4 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 9.88 | in index |
| chow risk | 71.9 | 50.3 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 8.30 | in index |
| billing conduct | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 0.00 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 0.0 | A | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 45.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 55.6 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 56.3 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.5 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 93.9 | F | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 51.4 | C | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 35.0 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 44.2 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 61.3 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 93.8 | F | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 93.8 | F | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 51.4 | C | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 51.4 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 6.74 | -1.19 | |
| Occupancy | 0.41 | +0.83 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Contract staffing share | 0.28 | +0.33 | |
| High-severity deficiencies, 12m | 5.00 | +0.26 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.41 | +1.43 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 11.00 | -0.61 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 10.61 | -0.60 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| High-severity deficiencies, 12m | 5.00 | -0.36 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.61 | +0.26 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | IL median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.24 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.32 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 2.99 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.34 | 3.23 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 70.5 | 3.24 | 0.32 | 0.88 | 2.05 | 2.99 | 27.7% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 65.9 | 3.46 | 0.36 | 0.84 | 2.26 | 3.24 | 24.6% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 67.2 | 3.05 | 0.25 | 0.88 | 1.92 | 2.81 | 15.1% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 64.5 | 3.10 | 0.29 | 0.87 | 1.94 | 2.84 | 21.7% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 68.8 | 3.07 | 0.33 | 0.76 | 1.98 | 2.82 | 30.4% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 77.6 | 2.65 | 0.25 | 0.53 | 1.87 | 2.52 | 44.6% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 83.1 | 4.39 | 0.25 | 2.32 | 1.82 | 8.78 | 59.3% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 81.5 | 2.39 | 0.24 | 0.50 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 12.8% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 81.9 | 2.42 | 0.24 | 0.45 | 1.74 | 2.21 | 3.8% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 87.4 | 2.62 | 0.29 | 0.55 | 1.78 | 2.48 | 8.4% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 93.5 | 2.45 | 0.17 | 0.54 | 1.74 | 2.32 | 0.5% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 90.8 | 2.72 | 0.11 | 0.71 | 1.90 | 2.46 | 0.5% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 87.8 | 2.60 | 0.09 | 0.77 | 1.75 | 2.46 | 1.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 85.6 | 2.58 | 0.09 | 0.80 | 1.70 | 2.44 | 8.7% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 85.3 | 2.51 | 0.06 | 0.77 | 1.67 | 2.33 | 11.3% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 86.5 | 2.34 | 0.06 | 0.78 | 1.50 | 2.21 | 11.7% |
| Date | Type | Fine | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-09 | Fine | $40,440 | CMS provider data |
| 2025-07-31 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| 2024-07-06 | Fine | $80,470 | CMS provider data |
| 2024-07-06 | Payment Denial | — | CMS provider data |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | G | 2026-05-21 |
| 2026-03-25 | Health · complaint | F0760 | Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors. | D | 2026-04-03 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | J | 2026-01-10 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | J | 2026-01-10 |
| 2026-01-09 | Health · complaint | F0842 | Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards. | D | 2026-01-10 |
| 2025-09-25 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-11-04 |
| 2025-08-19 | Health · complaint | F0553 | Allow resident to participate in the development and implementation of his or her person-centered plan of care. | D | 2025-09-02 |
| 2025-08-19 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | G | 2025-09-02 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0585 | Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances. | F | 2025-08-22 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | K | 2025-11-04 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health · complaint | F0609 | Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities. | E | 2025-08-22 |
| 2025-06-13 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-07-07 |
| 2025-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0571 | Limit the charges against residents' personal funds for items or services for which payment is made under Medicare or Medicaid. | D | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0576 | Ensure residents have reasonable access to and privacy in their use of communication methods. | D | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0745 | Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life. | E | 2025-05-15 |
| 2025-04-23 | Health · complaint | F0835 | Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently. | F | 2025-05-15 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | E | 2024-09-12 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0623 | Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights. | D | 2024-10-02 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2024-10-02 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2024-10-02 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0699 | Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent. | D | 2024-09-06 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2024-08-27 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0809 | Ensure meals and snacks are served at times in accordance with resident’s needs, preferences, and requests. Suitable and nourishing alternative meals and snacks must be provided for residents who want to eat at non-traditional times or outside of scheduled meal times. | E | 2024-09-01 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2024-08-26 |
| 2024-08-22 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | E | 2024-08-23 |
| 2024-07-06 | Health · complaint | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2024-07-29 |
| 2024-07-06 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | K | 2024-07-29 |
| 2024-07-06 | Health · complaint | F0610 | Respond appropriately to all alleged violations. | D | 2024-07-29 |
| 2024-07-06 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2024-08-22 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health · complaint | F0602 | Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money. | D | 2023-12-08 |
| 2023-12-06 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2023-12-08 |
| 2023-11-16 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | G | 2023-11-25 |
| 2023-09-08 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | D | 2023-09-27 |
| 2023-09-08 | Health | F0604 | Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment. | D | 2023-09-27 |
| 2023-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-09-27 |
| 2023-09-08 | Health · complaint | F0675 | Honor each resident's preferences, choices, values and beliefs. | D | 2023-09-27 |
| 2023-09-08 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | E | 2023-09-27 |
| 2023-09-08 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2023-09-27 |
| 2023-09-08 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2023-09-27 |
| 2022-08-04 | Health | F0885 | Report COVID19 data to residents and families. | E | 2022-08-11 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PETERSEN, MARK | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2019-10-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| XCH, LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 99% | 2019-10-31 | current | pecos_ownership |
| LOGUE, ETHEL | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | — | 2019-07-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MARK PETERSEN | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2019-10-31 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ETHEL LOGUE | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 0% | 2019-07-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-10-31 | — | MARIGOLD HCO, LLC | PETERSEN HEALTH NETWORK LLC | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES | — | — | — | 231 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES LLC |
| 2025-04-10 | THE PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE | — | — | — | 145 | PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | La Bella of Mascoutah | — | — | — | 76 | MASCOUTAH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 58 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-03-05 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON | — | — | — | 134 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT | — | — | — | 99 | HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC | — | — | — | 71 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Avantara Joliet | — | — | — | 154 | PRIME HEALTHCARE SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF ST. ELMO | — | — | — | 60 | HAVEN OF ST. ELMO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Arc at Sangamon Valley | — | — | — | 171 | ARC AT SANGAMON VALLEY LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT | — | — | — | 64 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT LLC |
| 2024-12-17 | WYNSCAPE HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 209 | NELP-WYNDEMERE OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 17095 | fmr | 0 | $694 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17095 | acs median gross | 1 | $570 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17095 | fmr | 1 | $698 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17095 | acs median gross | 2 | $846 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17095 | fmr | 2 | $916 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17095 | acs median gross | 3 | $966 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17095 | fmr | 3 | $1,199 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17095 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,309 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17095 | fmr | 4 | $1,213 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17095 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,457 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17095 | acs median gross | $788 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 17095 | acs recent mover gross | $1,061 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 61401 | acs median gross | 0 | $260 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61401 | acs median gross | 1 | $573 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61401 | acs median gross | 2 | $892 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61401 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,008 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61401 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,463 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61401 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,393 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61401 | acs median gross | $810 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 61401 | acs recent mover gross | $1,062 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $630 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | safmr | 0 | $700 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $825 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $675 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | safmr | 1 | $750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,023 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $837 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | safmr | 2 | $930 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,331 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,089 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | safmr | 3 | $1,210 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,573 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,287 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61401 | safmr | 4 | $1,430 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |