Reads as: riskier than 81.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.34
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.46
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.25
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.37
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.0
3.34
0.46
0.82
2.06
3.25
0.0%
2025Q3
92
86.4
3.35
0.44
0.78
2.13
3.28
0.0%
2025Q2
91
84.3
3.47
0.42
0.86
2.19
3.36
0.0%
2025Q1
90
87.3
3.29
0.51
0.70
2.09
3.21
0.0%
2024Q4
92
86.0
3.14
0.45
0.75
1.94
3.02
0.0%
2024Q3
92
82.7
3.41
0.60
0.73
2.08
3.31
0.0%
2024Q2
91
83.0
3.44
0.54
0.77
2.14
3.39
0.0%
2024Q1
91
83.5
3.38
0.50
0.84
2.03
3.35
0.0%
2023Q4
92
86.6
3.35
0.38
0.98
2.00
3.22
0.0%
2023Q3
92
89.7
3.23
0.32
1.00
1.92
2.99
0.0%
2023Q2
91
86.7
3.33
0.32
1.03
1.98
3.09
0.0%
2023Q1
90
89.1
3.22
0.28
0.99
1.94
3.07
0.0%
2022Q4
92
94.9
3.05
0.22
1.00
1.83
2.92
0.0%
2022Q3
92
86.5
3.24
0.17
1.26
1.81
3.04
7.7%
2022Q2
91
87.9
3.14
0.16
1.25
1.73
2.95
16.2%
2022Q1
90
88.1
3.06
0.09
1.20
1.78
2.98
10.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-08-26
2024-08-29
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-08-26
2024-08-29
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-09-23
2024-08-29
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-09-23
2024-08-29
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-09-23
2024-08-29
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-09-23
2024-08-29
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
E
2024-09-24
2024-08-29
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
F
2024-09-23
2023-08-09
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-08-30
2023-08-09
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
G
2023-08-30
2023-08-09
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2023-08-30
2023-08-09
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2023-08-30
2023-08-09
Health
F0849
Arrange for the provision of hospice services or assist the resident in transferring to a facility that will arrange for the provision of hospice services.
D
2023-08-30
2023-08-09
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
F
2023-08-30
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
38
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FOURINONE OPERATOR LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
B&Y HEALTHCARE S CORP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
B&Y TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BABAS 2013 LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BURNBAUM, EDWARD
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
CODY HEALTHCARE S CORP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRAIG FLASHNER 2007 TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLASHNER, CRAIG
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
FLASHNER, CRAIG
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
FOURINONE ACQUISITION GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
GOODWIN, JUSTIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HAGGERTY ROAD ACQUISTION GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
HYPER CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
KIRK, KRISTINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-05
current
pecos_ownership
KIRK, KRISTINE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MEHLER, ELIEZER
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
NORCROSS, ROBERT
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PERLSTEIN, YITZCHOK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PERLSTEIN, YITZCHOK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
PLYMOUTH COURT PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PLYMOUTH COURT PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PRESTIGE ADMINISTRATIVE SERVICES, LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERT L NORCROSS II FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBERT L NORCROSS II IRREVOCABLE TRUST
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROGERS, STACEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SLIM, ACHRAF
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
CRAIG FLASHNER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK PERLSTEIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
46%
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT NORCROSS
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ACHRAF SLIM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JUSTIN GOODWIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTINE KIRK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTINE KIRK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-07-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PLYMOUTH COURT PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PLYMOUTH COURT PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PLYMOUTH COURT PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
STACEY ROGERS
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
YITZCHOK PERLSTEIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,202,807
—
—
—
—
5
propco
2023-12-31
$1,409,829
—
—
—
$207,699
2
propco
2022-12-31
$1,533,697
—
—
—
$238,223
2
propco
2021-12-31
$1,431,095
—
—
—
$160,938
2
propco
2020-12-31
$1,303,684
—
—
—
$212,365
2
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26163
acs median gross
0
$876
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26163
fmr
0
$1,009
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26163
acs median gross
1
$876
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26163
fmr
1
$1,122
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26163
acs median gross
2
$1,144
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26163
fmr
2
$1,411
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26163
acs median gross
3
$1,310
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26163
fmr
3
$1,724
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26163
acs median gross
4
$1,395
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26163
fmr
4
$1,868
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26163
acs median gross
5
$1,431
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26163
acs median gross
$1,132
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26163
acs recent mover gross
$1,309
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48170
acs median gross
0
$1,679
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48170
acs median gross
1
$1,096
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48170
acs median gross
2
$1,330
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48170
acs median gross
3
$2,142
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48170
acs median gross
$1,227
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48170
acs recent mover gross
$1,627
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 48170
payment standard 110
0
$1,155
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
payment standard 90
0
$945
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
safmr
0
$1,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
payment standard 110
1
$1,276
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
payment standard 90
1
$1,044
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
safmr
1
$1,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
payment standard 110
2
$1,606
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
payment standard 90
2
$1,314
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
safmr
2
$1,460
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
payment standard 110
3
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
payment standard 90
3
$1,602
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
safmr
3
$1,780
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
payment standard 110
4
$2,123
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
payment standard 90
4
$1,737
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48170
safmr
4
$1,930
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.