200 Sand Creek Highway, Adrian, MI 49221 · CCN 235224
Composite
68.7 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
113
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 68.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
13 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.85
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.24
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
4.57
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.97
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
110.8
4.85
0.24
1.08
3.53
4.57
4.3%
2025Q3
92
110.8
4.76
0.25
0.94
3.57
4.48
8.0%
2025Q2
91
111.8
4.49
0.24
0.78
3.48
4.21
6.8%
2025Q1
90
104.3
4.94
0.32
1.00
3.63
4.85
0.0%
2024Q4
92
102.6
4.96
0.30
0.89
3.78
4.84
0.0%
2024Q3
92
112.3
4.68
0.32
0.82
3.54
4.52
0.0%
2024Q2
91
118.5
3.78
0.23
0.69
2.86
3.55
0.0%
2024Q1
91
112.0
5.09
0.31
1.05
3.73
4.89
0.0%
2023Q4
92
105.6
5.24
0.20
1.18
3.86
4.84
0.0%
2023Q3
92
108.4
4.96
0.24
1.11
3.61
4.59
0.0%
2023Q2
91
107.9
5.08
0.23
1.17
3.68
4.61
0.0%
2023Q1
90
97.9
4.90
0.19
1.30
3.42
4.64
0.0%
2022Q4
92
92.8
4.90
0.26
1.14
3.50
4.65
0.0%
2022Q3
92
89.1
4.89
0.27
1.11
3.52
4.59
0.0%
2022Q2
91
86.6
4.83
0.25
1.06
3.52
4.58
0.0%
2022Q1
90
83.4
4.62
0.26
1.00
3.36
4.49
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
D
2026-04-17
2026-03-19
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2026-04-17
2026-03-19
Health
F0637
Assess the resident when there is a significant change in condition
D
2026-04-17
2026-03-19
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2026-04-17
2026-03-19
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2026-04-17
2026-03-19
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-04-17
2026-03-19
Health · complaint
F0948
Ensure that paid feeding assistants have the training they need.
E
2026-04-17
2026-02-05
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2026-03-02
2025-09-22
Health · complaint
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2025-12-11
2025-06-25
Health · complaint
F0605
Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function.
D
2025-06-13
2025-06-25
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-05-29
2024-08-01
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2024-08-01
2023-11-16
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
B
2023-12-04
2023-11-16
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2023-12-04
2023-11-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-12-04
2023-11-16
Health
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
G
2023-12-04
2023-11-16
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-12-04
2023-11-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-12-04
2023-10-19
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2023-10-20
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LENAWEE COUNTY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
—
current
pecos_ownership
BLEVINS, CHRISTINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
CONCEPT REHAB, INC.
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELLEDGE, SARA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-12-06
current
pecos_ownership
GRAHAM, AMY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-14
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, KRISTIE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
JONES, LINDSEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-06-18
current
pecos_ownership
MACNAUGHTON, THOMAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
MANER, COSTERISAN & ELLIS, PC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MICHIGAN POST-ACUTE MEDICAL SERVICES 1 PC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORRISON MANAGEMENT SPECIALISTS INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-17
current
pecos_ownership
REILLY, JENNIFER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-06-17
current
pecos_ownership
SCARBOROUGH, JOYCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-18
current
pecos_ownership
TUCKEY, ERIN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-09-27
current
pecos_ownership
TUCKEY, ERIN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-13
current
pecos_ownership
VERNIER, KIRK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-06-18
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMSON, BRANDY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-08-20
current
pecos_ownership
AMY GRAHAM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-04-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDY WILLIAMSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2018-08-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHRISTINA BLEVINS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIN TUCKEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-09-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ERIN TUCKEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER REILLY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-06-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOYCE SCARBOROUGH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KIRK VERNIER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-06-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KRISTIE JONES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LINDSEY JONES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-06-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SARA ELLEDGE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-12-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THOMAS MACNAUGHTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
0
No related-party cost years on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26091
acs median gross
0
$627
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26091
fmr
0
$804
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26091
acs median gross
1
$805
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26091
fmr
1
$889
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26091
acs median gross
2
$1,034
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26091
fmr
2
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26091
acs median gross
3
$1,168
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26091
fmr
3
$1,491
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26091
acs median gross
4
$1,110
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26091
fmr
4
$1,622
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26091
acs median gross
5
$871
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26091
acs median gross
$987
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26091
acs recent mover gross
$1,084
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49221
acs median gross
1
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49221
acs median gross
2
$1,069
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49221
acs median gross
3
$1,176
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49221
acs median gross
4
$1,009
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49221
acs median gross
5
$869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49221
acs median gross
$992
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49221
acs recent mover gross
$1,106
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 49221
payment standard 110
0
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
payment standard 90
0
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
safmr
0
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
payment standard 110
1
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
payment standard 90
1
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
safmr
1
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
payment standard 110
2
$1,309
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
payment standard 90
2
$1,071
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
safmr
2
$1,190
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
payment standard 110
3
$1,672
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
payment standard 90
3
$1,368
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
safmr
3
$1,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
payment standard 110
4
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
payment standard 90
4
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49221
safmr
4
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.