Composite
60.4 / 100 percentile
| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 73.5 | 49.3 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 16.96 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 52.8 | 42.4 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 12.18 | in index |
| financial risk | 45.6 | 42.8 | 0.30 | 0.2308 | 10.52 | in index |
| chow risk | 73.1 | 54.0 | 0.15 | 0.1154 | 8.43 | in index |
| staffing risk | 21.7 | 21.8 | 0.25 | 0.1923 | 4.17 | in index |
| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 49.3 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 55.0 | C | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| chow risk | 53.1 | C | v0.6 | default · in composite | |
| financial risk | 42.8 | B | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 42.4 | B | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 21.8 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 67.4 | D | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 47.4 | C | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 34.0 | B | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 48.8 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 42.3 | B | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 42.3 | B | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 21.8 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 21.8 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -1.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 7.41 | -1.13 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Occupancy | 0.60 | +0.30 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.94 | +0.22 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.85 | -0.16 |
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | 3.28 | +1.50 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 4.00 | +0.69 | |
| Occupancy | 0.60 | +0.65 | |
| Chain size (log) | 2.94 | -0.51 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Never sold on record | 0.00 | -0.28 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.85 | -0.27 |
| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | IL median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.85 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.69 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.56 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.97 | 3.23 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 48.2 | 3.85 | 0.69 | 0.74 | 2.43 | 3.56 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 48.7 | 3.72 | 0.66 | 0.56 | 2.51 | 3.47 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 47.2 | 3.85 | 0.81 | 0.43 | 2.60 | 3.47 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 42.9 | 3.97 | 0.68 | 0.54 | 2.75 | 3.44 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 45.7 | 0.58 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.37 | 0.46 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 46.5 | 3.44 | 0.42 | 0.47 | 2.55 | 3.29 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 47.8 | 3.35 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 2.46 | 3.16 | 1.1% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 46.2 | 3.64 | 0.61 | 0.42 | 2.61 | 3.35 | 2.4% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 47.7 | 3.57 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 2.48 | 3.05 | 2.5% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 47.5 | 3.86 | 0.79 | 0.51 | 2.56 | 3.13 | 2.5% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 47.5 | 3.74 | 0.77 | 0.31 | 2.66 | 3.05 | 2.7% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 44.6 | 4.13 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 2.93 | 3.39 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 41.6 | 4.21 | 0.96 | 0.51 | 2.75 | 3.48 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 45.2 | 4.20 | 0.79 | 0.66 | 2.75 | 3.42 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 48.4 | 2.28 | 0.68 | 0.52 | 1.08 | 1.98 | 0.0% |
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-11-07 |
| 2025-10-20 | Health · complaint | F0908 | Keep all essential equipment working safely. | E | 2025-11-07 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health · complaint | F0600 | Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody. | D | 2025-09-12 |
| 2025-08-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-09-12 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0550 | Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights. | D | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0565 | Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility. | E | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0645 | PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities | D | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0661 | Ensure necessary information is communicated to the resident, and receiving health care provider at the time of a planned discharge. | D | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0693 | Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube. | D | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | E | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | E | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | F | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | F | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-12-13 | Health | F0881 | Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use. | F | 2025-01-06 |
| 2024-08-06 | Health · complaint | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-08-20 |
| 2024-08-06 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | E | 2024-08-20 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0554 | Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0686 | Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0697 | Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0848 | Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue. | E | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-11-08 | Health | F0909 | Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame. | D | 2023-11-30 |
| 2023-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2023-10-18 |
| 2023-09-27 | Health · complaint | F0689 | Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents. | D | 2023-10-18 |
| 2022-10-28 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2022-11-09 |
| 2022-10-28 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2022-11-09 |
| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STOUT, SCOTT | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WLC MANAGEMENT FIRM LLC | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2019-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| STOUT, SCOTT | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2019-03-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SCOTT STOUT | 5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2018-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| SCOTT STOUT | CORPORATE OFFICER | 100% | 2019-03-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| Close date | Price | Buyer | Seller | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-03-01 | — | HEARTLAND NURSING & REHABILITATION LLC | HEARTLAND MANOR INC NURSING CENTER | chow |
| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES | — | — | — | 231 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES LLC |
| 2025-04-10 | THE PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE | — | — | — | 145 | PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | La Bella of Mascoutah | — | — | — | 76 | MASCOUTAH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 58 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-03-05 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON | — | — | — | 134 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT | — | — | — | 99 | HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC | — | — | — | 71 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Avantara Joliet | — | — | — | 154 | PRIME HEALTHCARE SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF ST. ELMO | — | — | — | 60 | HAVEN OF ST. ELMO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Arc at Sangamon Valley | — | — | — | 171 | ARC AT SANGAMON VALLEY LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT | — | — | — | 64 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT LLC |
| 2024-12-17 | WYNSCAPE HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 209 | NELP-WYNDEMERE OPERATOR LLC |
| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 17023 | fmr | 0 | $696 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17023 | acs median gross | 1 | $593 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17023 | fmr | 1 | $769 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17023 | acs median gross | 2 | $879 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17023 | fmr | 2 | $1,009 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17023 | acs median gross | 3 | $934 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17023 | fmr | 3 | $1,245 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17023 | fmr | 4 | $1,336 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17023 | acs median gross | $861 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 17023 | acs recent mover gross | $794 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 62420 | acs median gross | 1 | $497 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62420 | acs median gross | 2 | $731 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62420 | acs median gross | 3 | $928 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 62420 | acs median gross | $701 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $737 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $603 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | safmr | 0 | $670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $814 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $666 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | safmr | 1 | $740 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,067 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $873 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | safmr | 2 | $970 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,309 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,071 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | safmr | 3 | $1,190 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,452 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,188 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 62420 | safmr | 4 | $1,320 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |