Reads as: riskier than 91.8% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
23
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+42.1 vs natl
BANK LEUMI USA
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+38.4 vs natl
DAVIS ESTHER
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.7 vs natl
LAUREN MAGNUSSON GRANTOR TR DATED 11 02 2004
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.7 vs natl
RANDI SCHULLO GRANTOR TR DATED 11 02 2004
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.7 vs natl
AUDRA ELISCO GRANTOR TR DATED 11 02 2004
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.3 vs natl
CARL JOAN
26 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+37.1 vs natl
ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.9 vs natl
MOLITOR ROBERT
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.7 vs natl
SCHULLO RANDI
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
SCHULLO NICOLE
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
ELISCO ARIN
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
ELISCO CHARLES
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
MAGNUSSON GARRETT
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.3 vs natl
MAGNUSSON PAIGE
23 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.2 vs natl
SCHLOSSBERG FLOYD
25 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+36.2 vs natl
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+35.7 vs natl
THE ALDEN GROUP LTD
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+34.4 vs natl
SCHULMAN JOSEPH
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
48% fined
DAVIS ESTHER
21 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
24 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
SCHULLO RANDI
27 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
SCHLOSSBERG FLOYD
25 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.39
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.91
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.24
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.46
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
60.2
3.39
0.91
0.43
2.05
3.24
4.3%
2025Q3
92
60.5
3.45
0.88
0.46
2.12
3.27
5.7%
2025Q2
91
63.8
3.60
0.89
0.51
2.20
3.47
25.2%
2025Q1
90
60.7
3.67
0.91
0.46
2.30
3.44
21.1%
2024Q4
92
63.7
3.64
0.84
0.45
2.35
3.51
27.9%
2024Q2
91
64.2
3.14
0.83
0.41
1.90
2.93
17.4%
2024Q1
91
64.0
2.91
0.77
0.37
1.78
2.80
8.8%
2023Q4
92
57.2
3.49
0.87
0.44
2.18
3.31
0.0%
2023Q3
92
56.9
3.35
0.90
0.47
1.98
3.12
0.0%
2023Q2
91
52.1
3.25
0.93
0.47
1.85
3.02
0.0%
2023Q1
90
53.4
3.10
0.91
0.51
1.68
2.96
0.0%
2022Q4
92
50.5
3.14
0.88
0.50
1.75
3.04
0.0%
2022Q3
92
47.3
3.34
0.84
0.56
1.95
3.27
0.0%
2022Q2
91
54.5
3.02
0.75
0.49
1.78
2.92
0.0%
2022Q1
90
53.5
3.13
0.76
0.56
1.81
3.05
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2025-03-28
2025-03-27
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
J
2025-03-28
2024-05-23
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
E
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
G
2024-05-24
2024-05-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-05-24
2024-01-22
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-02-05
2024-01-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-02-05
2024-01-22
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
F
2024-02-05
2023-07-02
Health · complaint
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-07-19
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
40
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NORTH SHORE TOUHY ASSOC. LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
NORTH SHORE TOUHY ASSOC. LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THE ALDEN GROUP, LTD.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
1994-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
58%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
58%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AUDRA ELISCO GRANTOR TR DATED 11/02/2004
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2018-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAUREN MAGNUSSON GRANTOR TR DATED 11/02/2004
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2018-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
RANDI SCHULLO GRANTOR TR DATED 11/02/2004
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
21%
2018-02-28
current
pecos_ownership
ELISCO, ARIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELISCO, CHARLES
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAGNUSSON, GARRETT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAGNUSSON, PAIGE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULLO, JOSEPH
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULLO, NICOLE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
ALDEN MANAGEMENT SERVICES, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1994-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
BANK LEUMI USA
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2012-08-29
current
pecos_ownership
CARL, JOAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
1994-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
DAVIS, ESTHER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-03-15
current
pecos_ownership
DITANGCO, ANGELA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-04-30
current
pecos_ownership
MOLITOR, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-06-16
current
pecos_ownership
SCHLOSSBERG, FLOYD
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1994-10-23
current
pecos_ownership
SCHULLO, RANDI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
ANGELA DITANGCO
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2018-04-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NORTH SHORE TOUHY ASSOC. LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
NORTH SHORE TOUHY ASSOCIATES LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
NORTH SHORE TOUHY ASSOCIATES LLC
Director, officer, administrator or key person of provider or organization
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM PROFESSIONAL CENTER
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
58%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
33%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FORUM
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
33%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ARIN ELISCO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES ELISCO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GARRETT MAGNUSSON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH SCHULLO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NICOLE SCHULLO
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAIGE MAGNUSSON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ESTHER DAVIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-03-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FLOYD SCHLOSSBERG
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1994-10-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOAN CARL
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
1994-10-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RANDI SCHULLO
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2010-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT MOLITOR
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2008-06-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,460,474
$1,089,241
—
$1,115,441
$52,811
9
propco
2023-12-31
$3,409,080
$966,929
—
$1,126,934
$46,556
9
propco
2022-12-31
$3,365,561
$897,295
—
$1,217,639
$42,965
9
propco
2021-12-31
$3,028,481
$997,594
—
$1,016,766
$37,736
8
propco
2020-12-31
$3,017,139
$1,052,307
—
$1,091,161
$30,493
7
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17031
acs median gross
0
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
1
$1,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
2
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
4
$1,909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
5
$1,794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs median gross
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs recent mover gross
$1,752
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60077
acs median gross
0
$1,388
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60077
acs median gross
1
$1,256
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60077
acs median gross
2
$1,594
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60077
acs median gross
3
$2,044
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60077
acs median gross
4
$2,356
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60077
acs median gross
$1,508
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60077
acs recent mover gross
$1,883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60077
payment standard 110
0
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
payment standard 90
0
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
safmr
0
$1,500
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
payment standard 110
1
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
payment standard 90
1
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
safmr
1
$1,600
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
payment standard 110
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
payment standard 90
2
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
safmr
2
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
payment standard 110
3
$2,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
payment standard 90
3
$2,088
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
safmr
3
$2,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
payment standard 110
4
$2,948
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
payment standard 90
4
$2,412
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60077
safmr
4
$2,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.