22600 Armada Ridge Road, Armada, MI 48005 · CCN 235609 · chain MI OPCO HOLDCO LLC
Composite
35.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
67
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 35.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
TAUB JACOB
20 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
GUTMAN ISAAC
22 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
HOFFMAN ALEXANDER
20 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.96
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.49
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.85
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.00
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
64.6
2.96
0.49
0.72
1.75
2.85
0.0%
2025Q2
91
62.9
3.10
0.37
0.93
1.80
3.05
0.0%
2025Q1
90
64.0
2.98
0.43
0.77
1.78
2.81
0.0%
2024Q4
92
63.4
2.90
0.47
0.74
1.69
2.73
0.0%
2024Q3
92
63.4
2.68
0.46
0.75
1.48
2.50
0.7%
2024Q2
91
60.7
2.59
0.45
0.77
1.37
2.57
0.0%
2024Q1
91
62.7
2.45
0.55
0.70
1.20
2.44
0.0%
2023Q4
92
60.6
2.78
0.63
0.83
1.33
2.57
0.0%
2023Q3
92
61.8
2.76
0.63
0.74
1.40
2.59
0.0%
2023Q2
91
62.5
2.65
0.53
0.65
1.48
2.63
11.4%
2023Q1
90
62.5
2.84
0.53
0.72
1.60
2.81
15.1%
2022Q4
92
61.7
2.90
0.59
0.66
1.65
2.65
40.7%
2022Q3
92
62.0
2.16
0.56
0.41
1.21
2.12
24.9%
2022Q2
91
63.3
2.03
0.43
0.48
1.13
2.21
3.5%
2022Q1
90
62.2
2.24
0.46
0.42
1.36
2.24
0.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-03-06
2025-06-10
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-06-27
2025-06-10
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2025-06-27
2025-06-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-06-27
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-06-14
2024-05-23
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-06-14
2023-12-19
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2023-11-07
2023-07-05
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-07-19
2023-05-09
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2023-05-26
2023-05-09
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2023-05-26
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ARMADA NORTHWEST MI MT LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ARMADA OPCO HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARMADA NORTHWEST MI MT LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FISHERMAN, ZALMAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
GUTMAN, ISAAC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HENRIKSON, DONALD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HOFFMAN, ALEXANDER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
KORNFELD, ROBERT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
MI OPCO HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
TAUB, JACOB
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ARMADA NORTHWEST MI MT LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-06-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
RHEMA ARMADA RE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
RHEMA ARMADA RE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
RHEMA ARMADA RE
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ALEXANDER HOFFMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
30%
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC GUTMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
30%
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACOB TAUB
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
30%
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT KORNFELD
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD HENRIKSON
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZALMAN FISHERMAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$690,488
—
—
—
$194,167
2
propco
2023-12-31
$1,306,622
$223,760
—
—
$110,482
2
propco
2022-12-31
$705,328
$252,883
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-05-31
$143,618
$86,167
—
—
—
3
propco
2021-12-31
$1,024,574
$597,304
—
—
—
2
propco
2020-12-31
$475,383
$140,456
—
—
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26099
acs median gross
0
$1,008
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26099
fmr
0
$1,009
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26099
acs median gross
1
$995
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26099
fmr
1
$1,122
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26099
acs median gross
2
$1,240
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26099
fmr
2
$1,411
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26099
acs median gross
3
$1,487
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26099
fmr
3
$1,724
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26099
acs median gross
4
$1,719
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26099
fmr
4
$1,868
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26099
acs median gross
5
$1,569
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26099
acs median gross
$1,211
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26099
acs recent mover gross
$1,304
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48005
acs median gross
1
$869
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48005
acs median gross
2
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48005
acs median gross
3
$1,200
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 48005
acs median gross
$1,053
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 48005
payment standard 110
0
$1,045
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
payment standard 90
0
$855
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
safmr
0
$950
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
payment standard 110
1
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
payment standard 90
1
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
safmr
1
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
payment standard 110
2
$1,463
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
payment standard 90
2
$1,197
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
safmr
2
$1,330
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
payment standard 110
3
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
payment standard 90
3
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
safmr
3
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
payment standard 110
4
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
payment standard 90
4
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 48005
safmr
4
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.