Composite
99.9 / 100 percentile
Screener / 146196
F
MERCYHEALTH JAVON BEA HOSPITAL -SNF
snfIL
2400 N ROCKTON AVE, ROCKFORD, IL 61103 · CCN 146196 · chain MERCY HEALTH CORPORATION
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
moderate
Certified beds
17
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 99.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model2ML signals1Components4CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing3Penalties0Deficiencies0Licensure0Ownership55Related party0Transactions0Comps12Market rent36
Composite explanation
2| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 91.4 | 61.0 | 0.30 | 0.6667 | 60.93 | in index |
| chow risk | 82.4 | 34.2 | 0.15 | 0.3333 | 27.47 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| anomaly | Top-decile risk vs 4–5 star rating | 13.9 | this facility | 2026-07-29 |
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Component scores and registry models
4| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 61.0 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 34.2 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.6 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.6%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
56.1
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 10.58 | -1.50 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Occupancy | 0.27 | +1.24 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 2.89 | +0.22 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.7%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
81.9
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 10.58 | -3.09 | |
| Occupancy | 0.27 | +2.01 | |
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -0.84 | -0.42 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 2.89 | +0.30 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
3| 2023Q1 HPRD | This facility | IL median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 10.58 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 5.58 | 0.49 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 10.65 | 2.93 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 10.55 | 3.23 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 4.6 | 10.58 | 5.58 | 0.00 | 5.00 | 10.65 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 4.7 | 9.80 | 5.15 | 0.00 | 4.65 | 9.62 | 0.0% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 4.4 | 11.42 | 6.13 | 0.71 | 4.58 | 10.06 | 0.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
0No deficiencies on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
55| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MERCY HEALTH CORPORATION | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2015-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| AREVALO, CARLOS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-10-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BEA, JAVON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | — | current | pecos_ownership |
| BEA, JAVON | INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-05-07 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BENNING, JOANNA | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2015-03-15 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BRINKERHOFF, ROBERT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2024-02-19 | current | pecos_ownership |
| BUDD, THOMAS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| CRANLEY, EDWARD | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2014-11-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DORSEY, JOHN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2012-08-20 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DORSEY, JOHN | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-29 | current | pecos_ownership |
| DORSEY, JOHN | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-12-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| GOELZER, MARK | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| HALLATT, JENNIFER | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2012-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| JOST, WESLEY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KILLPACK, TYLER | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KUS, KATHERINE | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2011-04-11 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KUS, KATHERINE | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2011-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MALAS, JOSEPH | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2025-06-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MERCY HEALTH CORPORATION | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OLIA, ALI | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-11-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OLSON, BRADLEY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2023-09-25 | current | pecos_ownership |
| PALCHES, KATHI | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 1999-11-08 | current | pecos_ownership |
| POOL, THOMAS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SANKEY, KARA | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2021-04-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SCACCIA, KIMBERLY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2020-03-23 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SCHACK, KATHERINE | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SYVERSON, DAVID | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2016-01-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| UDY, LADD | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2018-11-10 | current | pecos_ownership |
| WHITAKER, AMY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2022-08-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ALI OLIA | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2021-11-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AMY WHITAKER | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2022-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| BRADLEY OLSON | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2023-09-25 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DAVID SYVERSON | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2016-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| EDWARD CRANLEY | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2014-11-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JAVON BEA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | — | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JENNIFER HALLATT | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2012-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOANNA BENNING | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2015-03-15 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN DORSEY | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2012-08-20 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOSEPH MALAS | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2025-06-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KARA SANKEY | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2021-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KATHERINE SCHACK | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2016-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KIMBERLY SCACCIA | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2020-03-23 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LADD UDY | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2018-11-10 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| MARK GOELZER | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2016-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| ROBERT BRINKERHOFF | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2024-02-19 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| THOMAS BUDD | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2016-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| THOMAS POOL | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2016-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| TYLER KILLPACK | CORPORATE OFFICER | 0% | 2023-08-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| WESLEY JOST | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2016-01-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| CARLOS AREVALO | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2024-10-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN DORSEY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2024-12-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| JOHN DORSEY | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-29 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KATHERINE KUS | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2011-04-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KATHERINE KUS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2011-04-11 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| KATHI PALCHES | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 1999-11-08 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — IL snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-01 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES | — | — | — | 231 | RIVAYA CARE OF DES PLAINES LLC |
| 2025-04-10 | THE PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE | — | — | — | 145 | PEARL OF DOWNERS GROVE LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | La Bella of Mascoutah | — | — | — | 76 | MASCOUTAH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-04-01 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING | — | — | — | 58 | MONMOUTH REHAB AND NURSING LLC |
| 2025-03-05 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON | — | — | — | 134 | GOLDWATER CARE CLINTON LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT | — | — | — | 99 | HAVEN OF BRIDGEPORT LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC | — | — | — | 71 | CASS COUNTY SENIOR LIVING & REHABILITATION LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | Avantara Joliet | — | — | — | 154 | PRIME HEALTHCARE SENIOR LIVING, LLC |
| 2025-03-01 | THE HAVEN OF ST. ELMO | — | — | — | 60 | HAVEN OF ST. ELMO LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | Arc at Sangamon Valley | — | — | — | 171 | ARC AT SANGAMON VALLEY LLC |
| 2025-02-01 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT | — | — | — | 64 | ARC AT HICKORY POINT LLC |
| 2024-12-17 | WYNSCAPE HEALTH & REHAB | — | — | — | 209 | NELP-WYNDEMERE OPERATOR LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 17201 | acs median gross | 0 | $826 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17201 | fmr | 0 | $810 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17201 | acs median gross | 1 | $712 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17201 | fmr | 1 | $895 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17201 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,040 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17201 | fmr | 2 | $1,175 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17201 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,230 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17201 | fmr | 3 | $1,555 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17201 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,252 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17201 | fmr | 4 | $1,594 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 17201 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,208 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 17201 | acs median gross | $1,021 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 17201 | acs recent mover gross | $1,101 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 61103 | acs median gross | 0 | $645 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61103 | acs median gross | 1 | $694 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61103 | acs median gross | 2 | $971 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61103 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,166 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61103 | acs median gross | 4 | $1,246 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61103 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,356 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 61103 | acs median gross | $934 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 61103 | acs recent mover gross | $840 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $847 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $693 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | safmr | 0 | $770 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $935 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $765 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | safmr | 1 | $850 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $1,221 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $999 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | safmr | 2 | $1,110 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $1,617 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $1,323 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | safmr | 3 | $1,470 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $1,661 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $1,359 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 61103 | safmr | 4 | $1,510 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.