Reads as: riskier than 92.7% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
8
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
anomaly
Top-decile risk vs 4–5 star rating
6.7
this facility
2026-07-29
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+39.2 vs natl
CF ST LOUIS LLC
34 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+35.9 vs natl
LAKE FOREST BANK TRUST COMPANY N A
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+31.4 vs natl
GPN FAMILY TRUST U A D 4 28 08
74 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+30.1 vs natl
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U A D 1 3 12
72 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.2 vs natl
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
79 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.2 vs natl
SHABAT MENACHEM
85 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
RSM US LLP
18 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.06
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.65
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.95
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.10
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
126.9
3.06
0.65
0.58
1.82
2.95
4.0%
2025Q3
92
127.6
2.94
0.64
0.54
1.77
2.78
3.1%
2025Q2
91
126.0
3.10
0.67
0.53
1.90
2.89
3.3%
2025Q1
90
130.6
2.91
0.60
0.52
1.79
2.81
0.8%
2024Q4
92
132.8
2.83
0.54
0.53
1.77
2.73
2.1%
2024Q3
92
124.7
2.88
0.60
0.57
1.71
2.82
2.0%
2024Q2
91
127.6
2.80
0.65
0.51
1.63
2.70
3.5%
2024Q1
91
115.6
2.86
0.61
0.52
1.74
2.77
4.6%
2023Q4
92
119.0
2.89
0.64
0.52
1.73
2.83
2.5%
2023Q3
92
121.0
2.94
0.66
0.51
1.76
2.87
7.2%
2023Q2
91
121.1
2.97
0.61
0.58
1.79
2.83
3.7%
2023Q1
90
120.7
2.92
0.70
0.51
1.72
2.86
3.0%
2022Q4
92
121.9
2.83
0.72
0.49
1.63
2.71
5.0%
2022Q3
92
128.9
2.74
0.61
0.58
1.54
2.56
1.6%
2022Q2
91
128.6
2.82
0.61
0.59
1.62
2.60
0.0%
2022Q1
90
124.9
2.87
0.65
0.61
1.61
2.69
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
26
D × 19E × 5G × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-18
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2026-05-01
2026-04-18
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2026-05-01
2026-04-18
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2026-05-01
2026-03-27
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-04-02
2026-03-27
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2026-04-02
2026-03-27
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2026-04-02
2026-03-27
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-04-02
2025-04-28
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-04-29
2025-01-09
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2025-01-16
2025-01-09
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2025-01-16
2025-01-09
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2025-01-16
2025-01-09
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2025-01-16
2025-01-09
Health
F0806
Ensure each resident receives and the facility provides food that accommodates resident allergies, intolerances, and preferences, as well as appealing options.
D
2025-01-16
2025-01-09
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2025-01-16
2024-03-15
Health
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
E
2024-03-21
2024-03-15
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-03-21
2024-03-15
Health
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2024-03-21
2024-03-15
Health
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2024-03-21
2024-03-15
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2024-03-21
2024-03-15
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-03-21
2024-03-15
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-03-21
2024-03-15
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2024-03-21
2024-03-15
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-03-21
2024-03-15
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
E
2024-03-21
2023-09-14
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2023-09-27
2023-08-16
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-08-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
28
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U/A/D 1/3/12
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GPN FAMILY TRUST U/A/D 4/28/08
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CF ST. LOUIS LLC
—
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CF ST. LOUIS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
DOROS GENERATION TRUST U/A/D 1/3/12
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
GPN FAMILY TRUST U/A/D 4/28/08
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
KALRA, SANDEEP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
LAKE FOREST BANK & TRUST COMPANY, N.A.
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2024-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
LANNING, CAMBERLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2015-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
LEGACY HEALTHCARE FINANCIAL SERVICES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRAIRIE PROPERTY HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PRAIRIE PROPERTY HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PRAIRIE PROPERTY HOLDINGS, CC
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2014-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
PRAIRIE PROPERTY HOLDINGS, CC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-17
current
pecos_ownership
RSM US LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHABAT, MENACHEM
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MENACHEM SHABAT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
50%
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CAMBERLY LANNING
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2015-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CF ST. LOUIS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CF ST. LOUIS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CF ST. LOUIS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
CHAIM RAJCHENBACH DESCENDANTS TR UA 04282008
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PRAIRIE PROPERTY HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PRAIRIE PROPERTY HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PRAIRIE PROPERTY HOLDINGS
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
SANDEEP KALRA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2014-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,419,501
—
—
—
$22,456
7
propco
2023-12-31
$1,441,551
—
—
—
$50,340
7
propco
2022-12-31
$1,455,234
—
—
—
$30,828
8
propco
2021-12-31
$1,464,950
—
—
—
$35,119
8
propco
2020-12-31
$1,538,117
—
—
—
$45,835
8
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17089
acs median gross
0
$1,090
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
1
$1,175
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
2
$1,451
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
3
$1,771
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
4
$1,883
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17089
acs median gross
5
$1,770
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
acs median gross
$1,453
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17089
acs recent mover gross
$1,632
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60505
acs median gross
0
$887
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60505
acs median gross
1
$1,040
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60505
acs median gross
2
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60505
acs median gross
3
$1,575
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60505
acs median gross
4
$1,530
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60505
acs median gross
5
$1,801
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60505
acs median gross
$1,316
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60505
acs recent mover gross
$1,432
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60505
payment standard 110
0
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
payment standard 90
0
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
safmr
0
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
payment standard 110
1
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
payment standard 90
1
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
safmr
1
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
payment standard 110
2
$1,771
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
payment standard 90
2
$1,449
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
safmr
2
$1,610
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
payment standard 110
3
$2,277
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
payment standard 90
3
$1,863
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
safmr
3
$2,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
payment standard 110
4
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
payment standard 90
4
$2,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60505
safmr
4
$2,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.