Reads as: riskier than 60.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
14
2025Q3 HPRD
This facility
MI median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
4.02
3.52
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.42
0.47
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.79
3.32
3.11
—
Weekday total
4.11
3.61
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q3
92
70.5
4.02
0.42
0.90
2.69
3.79
0.0%
2025Q2
91
53.9
4.52
0.40
1.02
3.10
4.36
0.0%
2025Q1
90
51.1
4.75
0.27
1.26
3.22
4.58
0.0%
2024Q4
92
52.3
4.44
0.37
1.18
2.89
4.19
0.0%
2024Q3
92
50.2
4.67
0.33
1.12
3.22
4.38
0.0%
2024Q1
91
56.0
5.00
0.26
1.28
3.46
4.87
8.4%
2023Q4
92
52.2
5.01
0.43
1.25
3.33
4.75
8.7%
2023Q3
92
46.0
4.83
0.48
1.06
3.29
4.97
1.6%
2023Q2
91
41.0
4.84
0.37
1.25
3.23
4.63
8.0%
2023Q1
90
51.9
4.52
0.19
1.54
2.79
4.45
20.6%
2022Q4
92
50.7
3.45
0.20
1.01
2.25
3.39
27.6%
2022Q3
92
48.5
3.78
0.46
1.05
2.27
3.67
5.3%
2022Q2
91
52.4
3.48
0.63
0.81
2.04
3.44
0.0%
2022Q1
90
60.5
3.88
0.64
0.76
2.48
3.69
23.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
33
C × 1D × 23E × 2F × 4G × 1L × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-05
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-02-20
2026-02-05
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2026-02-20
2026-02-05
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-20
2025-12-30
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-01-28
2025-12-30
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-01-28
2025-12-30
Health · complaint
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2026-01-28
2025-12-30
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-01-28
2025-06-04
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2025-06-12
2025-06-04
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-06-12
2025-06-04
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2025-06-12
2025-06-04
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2025-06-12
2025-06-04
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2025-06-12
2025-06-04
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-06-12
2025-02-24
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-03-10
2025-02-24
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-03-10
2024-06-07
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2024-07-05
2024-06-07
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-07-05
2024-06-07
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-07-05
2024-06-07
Health
F0921
Make sure that the nursing home area is safe, easy to use, clean and comfortable for residents, staff and the public.
E
2024-07-05
2024-02-07
Health · complaint
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2024-03-06
2023-03-21
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0839
Employ staff that are licensed, certified, or registered in accordance with state laws.
L
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
C
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
L
2023-05-18
2023-03-21
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0885
Report COVID19 data to residents and families.
D
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0886
Perform COVID19 testing on residents and staff.
F
2023-04-12
2023-03-21
Health
F0895
Have a Compliance and Ethics Program.
F
2023-04-12
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
24
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NEXCARE HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRANSCUM, JAMES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
EISENBERG, LEO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON REAL ESTATE COMPANY LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
JOHN GANTONS COUNTRYSIDE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
JOHN GANTONS COUNTRYSIDE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-08-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
MILLER, CASIE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEXCARE HEALTH SYSTEMS, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
PERRY, MICHAEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ROBIN EISENBERG 2014 FAMILY TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
SANGSTER, TODD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
WRONSKI, FRANK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
YALAVARTHI, JYOTHSNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN GANTONS COUNTRYSIDE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JOHN GANTONS COUNTRYSIDE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
FRANK WRONSKI
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
31%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JAMES BRANSCUM
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
31%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LEO EISENBERG
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
31%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RICHARD PRESTAGE
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD SANGSTER
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL PERRY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CASIE MILLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN GANTONS COUNTRYSIDE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
JYOTHSNA YALAVARTHI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$288,370
—
—
—
$22,215
12
propco
2024-07-31
$245,000
$245,000
—
—
—
1
propco
2023-12-31
$420,000
$420,000
—
—
—
1
propco
2022-12-31
$420,000
$420,000
—
—
—
1
propco
2021-12-31
$420,000
$420,000
—
—
—
1
propco
2020-12-31
$420,000
$420,000
—
—
—
1
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 26075
acs median gross
0
$767
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26075
fmr
0
$838
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26075
acs median gross
1
$810
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26075
fmr
1
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26075
acs median gross
2
$1,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26075
fmr
2
$1,165
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26075
acs median gross
3
$1,186
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26075
fmr
3
$1,534
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26075
acs median gross
4
$1,191
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26075
fmr
4
$1,626
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 26075
acs median gross
5
$1,012
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26075
acs median gross
$985
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 26075
acs recent mover gross
$999
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49203
acs median gross
1
$757
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49203
acs median gross
2
$1,026
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49203
acs median gross
3
$1,158
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49203
acs median gross
4
$1,123
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49203
acs median gross
$1,019
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 49203
acs recent mover gross
$1,006
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 49203
payment standard 110
0
$1,001
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
payment standard 90
0
$819
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
safmr
0
$910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
payment standard 110
1
$1,122
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
payment standard 90
1
$918
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
safmr
1
$1,020
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
payment standard 110
2
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
payment standard 90
2
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
safmr
2
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
payment standard 110
3
$1,826
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
payment standard 90
3
$1,494
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
safmr
3
$1,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
payment standard 110
4
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
payment standard 90
4
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 49203
safmr
4
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.