707 THROGGS NECK EXPRESSWAY, BRONX, NY 10465 · CCN 335771 · chain EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
Composite
48.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
205
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 48.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
7
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.8 vs natl
STERN RONALD
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.0 vs natl
POLLAK THEODORE
7 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
FISCHEL MAYER
45 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
STEINBERG MOSHE
15 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
LEIFER JOEL
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
60% fined
STERN RONALD
5 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
POLLAK THEODORE
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.64
3.33
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.23
0.43
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.54
3.03
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.68
3.44
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
197.7
2.64
0.23
0.51
1.90
2.54
7.4%
2025Q2
91
196.8
2.61
0.24
0.49
1.89
2.62
5.7%
2025Q1
90
197.7
2.56
0.21
0.50
1.85
2.53
3.5%
2024Q4
92
197.9
2.61
0.30
0.48
1.84
2.64
4.1%
2024Q3
92
197.0
2.59
0.18
0.50
1.90
2.48
2.1%
2024Q2
91
198.9
2.63
0.14
0.59
1.90
2.52
4.6%
2024Q1
91
197.4
2.65
0.16
0.60
1.89
2.54
5.1%
2023Q4
92
195.5
2.68
0.19
0.46
2.03
2.61
4.1%
2023Q3
92
203.0
2.60
0.14
0.47
1.99
2.45
40.5%
2023Q2
91
198.9
2.53
0.10
0.51
1.93
2.32
40.6%
2023Q1
90
200.3
2.47
0.08
0.51
1.88
2.32
34.1%
2022Q4
92
198.8
2.57
0.03
0.56
1.98
2.33
34.9%
2022Q3
92
196.4
2.56
0.02
0.56
1.97
2.33
26.6%
2022Q2
91
197.9
2.54
0.03
0.52
1.99
2.31
27.2%
2022Q1
90
198.3
2.48
0.03
0.47
1.98
2.31
28.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
D × 15F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-03-13
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-04-23
2026-03-13
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2026-04-20
2026-01-07
Health · complaint
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2026-01-13
2023-12-01
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-01-16
2021-09-10
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2021-11-01
2021-09-10
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2021-11-01
2021-09-10
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2021-11-01
2021-09-10
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2021-11-01
2021-09-10
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2021-11-01
2021-09-10
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2021-11-01
2021-09-10
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2021-11-01
2021-09-10
Health
F0711
Ensure the resident's doctor reviews the resident's care, writes, signs and dates progress notes and orders, at each required visit.
D
2021-11-01
2021-09-10
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2021-11-01
2021-09-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2021-11-01
2019-02-22
Health
F0568
Properly hold, secure, and manage each resident's personal money which is deposited with the nursing home.
D
2019-03-11
2019-02-22
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2019-03-07
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
58
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LEIFER, JOEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
44%
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FARKOWITZ, ESTHER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BECHER, AARON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLOOM, DAVID
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BROWN-WHITTINGHAM, ANDREA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-02-16
current
pecos_ownership
BUSELL, SANDRA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHOPP, ALAN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ESTATE OF MAYER RISPLER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2019-07-21
current
pecos_ownership
EXCELSIOR CARE GROUP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
FARKOWITZ, ESTHER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-28
current
pecos_ownership
FISCHEL, MAYER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-28
current
pecos_ownership
FISCHEL, MAYER
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
GEORGE KLEIN TESTAMENTARY TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HERSH, ISAAC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-22
current
pecos_ownership
KLEIN, LARRY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEIFER, JOEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-28
current
pecos_ownership
LERNER, CHANA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NAKDIMEN, SHELLY
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ORGEL, BENZION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-12-27
current
pecos_ownership
PHILIPSON, BENT
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
POCCHIA, TERESA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
POLLAK, THEODORE
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHWARTZ, MICHAEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SINGER, BRUCHA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STEINBERG, MOSHE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-12
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, RONALD
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TESSLER, NAOMI
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
THROGS NECK REALTY GROUP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
THROGS NECK REALTY GROUP
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
VEZZA, ELENA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-03-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOEL LEIFER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
44%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAYER FISCHL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
27%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ESTHER FARKOWITZ
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRUCHA SINGER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHANA LERNER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NAOMI TESSLER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RONALD STERN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THEODORE POLLAK
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AARON BECHER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALAN CHOPP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENT PHILIPSON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BERISH RUBINSTEIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHELLY NAKDIMEN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID BLOOM
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY KLEIN
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL SCHWARTZ
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SANDRA BUSELL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TERESA POCCHIA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREA BROWN-WHITTINGHAM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-02-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BENZION ORGEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-12-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELENA VEZZA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-03-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ESTHER FARKOWITZ
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISAAC HERSH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2019-07-22
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOEL LEIFER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MAYER FISCHL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-12-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOSHE STEINBERG
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-07-12
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$6,565,074
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2023-12-31
$6,448,895
—
—
—
—
3
propco
2022-12-31
$4,618,839
—
—
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$627,772
—
—
—
—
2
—
2020-12-31
$756,243
—
—
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 36005
acs median gross
0
$1,191
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36005
fmr
0
$2,529
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36005
acs median gross
1
$1,380
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36005
fmr
1
$2,655
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36005
acs median gross
2
$1,525
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36005
fmr
2
$2,910
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36005
acs median gross
3
$1,733
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36005
fmr
3
$3,644
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36005
acs median gross
4
$1,771
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36005
fmr
4
$3,959
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 36005
acs median gross
5
$2,128
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36005
acs median gross
$1,458
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 36005
acs recent mover gross
$1,701
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 10465
acs median gross
0
$1,226
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 10465
acs median gross
1
$1,112
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 10465
acs median gross
2
$1,942
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 10465
acs median gross
3
$2,365
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 10465
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 10465
acs median gross
$1,904
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 10465
acs recent mover gross
$2,254
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 10465
payment standard 110
0
$2,904
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
payment standard 90
0
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
safmr
0
$2,640
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
payment standard 110
1
$3,047
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
payment standard 90
1
$2,493
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
safmr
1
$2,770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
payment standard 110
2
$3,344
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
payment standard 90
2
$2,736
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
safmr
2
$3,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
payment standard 110
3
$4,191
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
payment standard 90
3
$3,429
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
safmr
3
$3,810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
payment standard 110
4
$4,554
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
payment standard 90
4
$3,726
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 10465
safmr
4
$4,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.