Reads as: riskier than 69.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.0 vs natl
3701 LUNT LLC
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.4 vs natl
ISRAEL INVESTMENT TR
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+22.2 vs natl
AARON JONATHAN
32 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.9 vs natl
ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.4 vs natl
GRAF MARCELLA
37 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
43% fined
AARON FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
7 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.37
3.13
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.76
0.49
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.10
2.93
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.47
3.23
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
88.0
3.37
0.76
0.45
2.16
3.10
9.0%
2025Q3
92
84.7
3.58
0.88
0.37
2.33
3.26
13.8%
2025Q2
91
86.6
3.50
0.84
0.43
2.23
3.27
17.7%
2025Q1
90
84.6
3.33
0.72
0.48
2.12
3.13
15.8%
2024Q4
92
77.6
3.36
0.81
0.39
2.16
3.16
6.0%
2024Q3
92
78.5
3.43
0.82
0.39
2.22
3.32
30.8%
2024Q2
91
78.7
3.21
0.88
0.31
2.02
3.02
29.7%
2024Q1
91
79.0
3.45
0.91
0.42
2.13
3.21
40.1%
2023Q4
92
82.9
3.37
1.00
0.34
2.03
3.23
37.2%
2023Q3
92
83.1
3.38
0.96
0.38
2.05
3.11
36.8%
2023Q2
91
80.5
3.32
0.89
0.36
2.06
3.08
34.0%
2023Q1
90
80.3
3.28
0.89
0.38
2.01
3.09
29.1%
2022Q4
92
80.6
3.36
0.94
0.35
2.07
3.18
32.2%
2022Q3
92
75.9
3.18
0.90
0.30
1.99
3.04
35.5%
2022Q2
91
74.0
3.25
1.04
0.23
1.98
3.05
33.2%
2022Q1
90
76.2
3.41
1.15
0.26
2.00
3.09
31.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2025-06-18
2025-05-29
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-06-18
2025-05-29
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-06-18
2025-01-22
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-02-13
2025-01-22
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-02-13
2025-01-06
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-01-23
2024-06-30
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2024-07-26
2024-06-30
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-07-26
2024-05-16
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
G
2024-06-10
2024-05-16
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2024-06-10
2024-05-16
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2024-06-10
2024-02-01
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-04-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
AARON FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
30%
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
AB INVESTMENT TRUST U/A/D 01/03/23
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
3701 LUNT LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
6930 TOUHY AVENUE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
6930 TOUHY AVENUE LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AARON FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
AARON, JONATHAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
AB INVESTMENT TRUST U/A/D 01/03/23
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
GRAF, MARCELLA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL INVESTMENT TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
KANTER, JEREMY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
OMNIA HEALTHCARE GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
ROBIN, JASON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
TELLER, CHANANEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-03
current
pecos_ownership
TODD A STERN 2015 IRRV INS TR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-10-24
current
pecos_ownership
JONATHAN AARON
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
30%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHANANEL TELLER
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TODD A STERN 2015 IRRV INS TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL FAMILY INVESTMENT TRUST
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ISRAEL INVESTMENT TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARCELLA GRAF
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARIANNE MARCOCIG
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN NAGEL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
2%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GABRIEL KROLL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATHERINE PROCTOR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHOSHANA GROSS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
1%
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON ROBIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JEREMY KANTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-03
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$349,451
—
—
—
$2,487
4
propco
2024-09-02
$398,048
—
—
—
$98,230
0
—
2024-06-30
$2,241,312
—
—
—
$553,108
0
—
2023-06-30
$2,303,684
—
—
—
$591,106
0
—
2022-06-30
$1,958,185
—
—
—
$506,800
0
—
2021-06-30
$2,468,367
—
—
—
$507,835
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 17031
acs median gross
0
$1,230
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
1
$1,271
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
1
$1,581
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
2
$1,454
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
2
$1,781
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
3
$1,693
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
3
$2,294
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
4
$1,909
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
fmr
4
$2,653
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 17031
acs median gross
5
$1,794
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs median gross
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 17031
acs recent mover gross
$1,752
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60714
acs median gross
0
$1,440
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60714
acs median gross
1
$1,132
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60714
acs median gross
2
$1,361
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60714
acs median gross
3
$1,915
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60714
acs median gross
4
$1,833
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60714
acs median gross
$1,336
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 60714
acs recent mover gross
$1,059
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 60714
payment standard 110
0
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
payment standard 90
0
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
safmr
0
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
payment standard 110
1
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
payment standard 90
1
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
safmr
1
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
payment standard 110
2
$1,716
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
payment standard 90
2
$1,404
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
safmr
2
$1,560
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
payment standard 110
3
$2,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
payment standard 90
3
$1,809
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
safmr
3
$2,010
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
payment standard 110
4
$2,552
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
payment standard 90
4
$2,088
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 60714
safmr
4
$2,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.