Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,251–3,300

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3251	KEY WEST HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	KEY WEST	0	—
3252	THOMAS NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	THOMAS	0	—
3253	CARRIAGE HILL REHAB AND NURSIN	0.6%	77.5	—	VA	FREDERICKSBURG	—	—
3254	WOODLAND CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.6%	77.5	A	WA	WOODLAND	62	—
3255	PRESTIGE CARE & REHABILITATION - GRANDVIEW	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	GRANDVIEW	—	—
3256	MINERAL AREA REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	FARMINGTON	0	—
3257	MARSHALLTOWN MED & SURG CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	MARSHALLTOWN	—	—
3258	MOTHER OF PERPETUAL HELP NURSING HOME INC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	BROWNSVILLE	—	—
3259	BRIDGEPORT HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	BRIDGEPORT	0	—
3260	EAST MOORE NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	MOORE	—	—
3261	KEMPER HOMEPLACE NURSING FACIL	0.6%	77.5	—	MS	DE KALB	0	—
3262	OXFORD HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MS	LUMBERTON	—	—
3263	PARKVIEW MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	WALTERS	0	—
3264	DESERET CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	UT	SALT LAKE CITY	0	—
3265	TEXAN NURSING & REHAB OF PLAINVIEW LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	PLAINVIEW	—	—
3266	GORDON OAKS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AL	MOBILE	—	—
3267	MEADOWS OF OTTAWA-GLANDORF	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	OTTAWA	—	—
3268	AUXILIO MUTUO	0.6%	77.5	—	PR	HATO REY	0	—
3269	SOUTHWEST GENERAL ORTHOPEDIC JOINT & SPINE SKILLED	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	MIDDLEBURG HEIGHTS	0	—
3270	THOMAS HOSPITAL SKILLED NURSING UNIT	0.6%	77.5	—	AL	FAIRHOPE	—	—
3271	PALM DRIVE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	SEBASTOPOL	0	—
3272	LAKESIDE HEIGHTS NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	KY	HIGHLAND HEIGHTS	0	—
3273	THE DUTCH MANOR NURSING AND REHAB CENTRE	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	SCHENECTADY	—	—
3274	SYCAMORE CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	FORT WORTH	0	—
3275	FRANKLIN COUNTY NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	MALONE	0	—
3276	VILLA OAKS CONVALESCENT HOPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	PASADENA	0	—
3277	MOUNT ROYAL TOWERS	0.6%	77.5	—	AL	BIRMINGHAM	—	—
3278	JEFFERSON REHABILITATION & HEALTH CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AL	BIRMINGHAM	—	—
3279	PINEVIEW MANOR INC	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	BEAVER	0	—
3280	MOUNTAIN VIEW HOSPITAL CONTINUING CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	UT	PAYSON	—	—
3281	GOOD SAMARITAN SOCIETY - OSNABROCK	0.6%	77.5	—	ND	OSNABROCK	—	—
3282	MEDICALODGES KANSAS CITY	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	KANSAS CITY	—	—
3283	SUMMIT PARK NURSING CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	POMONA	0	—
3284	(CLOSED) COLONIAL HILLS NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	MARYVILLE	—	—
3285	UPMC HORIZON TCC GREENVILLE	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	GREENVILLE	—	—
3286	ATLANTIC REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	ME	CALAIS	—	—
3287	ST PAUL RECOVERY INN	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	APPLETON	—	—
3288	OZARKS MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	WEST PLAINS	0	—
3289	WORTHAM REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	WORTHAM	—	—
3290	GLOUCESTER MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	SEWELL	0	—
3291	OUR LADY OF HOPE RESIDENCE	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	LATHAM	—	—
3292	WASHBURN COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	TOPEKA	—	—
3293	CHARLESS HOME, THE	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	SAINT LOUIS	—	—
3294	METHODIST HOSPITAL OF CHICAGO	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	CHICAGO	—	—
3295	WEDGEWOOD NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	C	TX	FORT WORTH	0	ADVANCED HCS LLC
3296	ST VINCENT ORTHOPEDIC TRANSITIONAL CARE	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	INDIANAPOLIS	—	—
3297	CORINTHIAN GARDENS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	BAKERSFIELD	0	—
3298	SUNSHINE HAVEN LORDSBURG	0.6%	77.5	—	NM	LORDSBURG	0	—
3299	PLEASANT CARE CONVALESCENT OF UKIAH	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	UKIAH	0	—
3300	Britthaven Of Raleigh	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	Raleigh	—	—

Showing 3,251–3,300 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.