Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,151–3,200

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3151	PRESTIGE CARE AND REHABILITATION OF EDMONDS	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	EDMONDS	—	—
3152	SAMARITAN BETHANY HEIGHTS	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	ROCHESTER	—	—
3153	JOSEPHSON NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	IRONWOOD	—	—
3154	ZION CARE CENTER INC	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CINCINNATI	—	—
3155	NEURO-REHAB CTR-MIDDLEBORO, THE	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	MIDDLEBOROUGH	—	—
3156	CAREONE AT SOMERSET VALLEY	0.6%	77.5	C	NJ	BOUND BROOK	64	—
3157	DOWAGIAC NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	DOWAGIAC	0	—
3158	HILLTOP HAVEN NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	GUNTER	—	—
3159	HILLCREST SENIOR LIVING	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	RED LAKE FALLS	0	—
3160	ANNIE WALKER NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	KY	MOUNT STERLING	—	—
3161	SANGAMON CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	SPRINGFIELD	0	—
3162	MONTEREY HEALTHCARE & WELLNESS CENTRE, LP	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	ROSEMEAD	—	—
3163	DESERET HEALTH AND REHAB AT FEDERAL HEIGHTS	0.6%	77.5	—	UT	SALT LAKE CITY	0	—
3164	ARROWHEAD SENIOR LIVING COMMUNITY	0.6%	77.5	C	MO	OSAGE BEACH	80	MIDWEST HEALTH INC 06122001
3165	CHAPLINWOOD NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	C	GA	MILLEDGEVILLE	100	COMMUNITY HEALTH SYSTEMS INC
3166	CARE ONE AT HAMILTON	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	HAMILTON TOWNSHIP	0	—
3167	Brighton Manor	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	Fuquay Varina	—	—
3168	TWIN OAKS CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	MANSFIELD	—	—
3169	MERCY ST JOHN'S CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	SPRINGFIELD	—	—
3170	EXETER CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	NE	EXETER	—	—
3171	ST ANTHONYS MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	EFFINGHAM	0	—
3172	GRANDVIEW MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	NE	CAMPBELL	—	—
3173	TCC AT WARREN GENERAL	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	WARREN	—	—
3174	Carolinas Hosp Sys Trans Care	0.6%	77.5	—	SC	Florence	—	—
3175	CANTERBURY MANOR NURSING CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	WATERLOO	—	—
3176	CARE LIVING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	0	—
3177	ABSMC SUMMIT CAMPUS D/P SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	OAKLAND	—	—
3178	FOREST HILL HEALTH AND REHAB	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	EAST MOLINE	0	—
3179	CASA ILLUMINARIA CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	CO	DEL NORTE	—	—
3180	HOMESTEAD NURSING AND REHABILITATION OF GORMAN	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	GORMAN	0	—
3181	SUNVIEW CARE & REHAB CENTER LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	CORSICANA	0	—
3182	TOMBALL REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	TOMBALL	—	—
3183	POTTSTOWN MEMORIAL MED CTR TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	POTTSTOWN	—	—
3184	CORINTHIAN THE	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	KENTON	—	—
3185	ALL FAITH PAVILION	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	CHICAGO	0	—
3186	BALDWIN MANOR NURSING HOME IN	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CLEVELAND	—	—
3187	SAMPSON REGIONAL MEDICAL CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	CLINTON	—	—
3188	PLANTATION KEY CONVALESCENT CT	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	TAVERNIER	0	—
3189	BLOSSOM SOUTH NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	ROCHESTER	0	—
3190	GRENADA LAKE MEDICAL CTR TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	MS	GRENADA	—	—
3191	BELL COUNTY NURSING AND REHAB CENTER OF TEMPLE INC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	TEMPLE	0	—
3192	ANTHONY COMMUNITY CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	KS	ANTHONY	—	—
3193	LA HACIENDA AT LA POSADA	0.6%	77.5	—	AZ	GREEN VALLEY	—	—
3194	DETAR HOSPITAL NAVARRO	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	VICTORIA	—	—
3195	OAKVIEW CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	DURAND	—	—
3196	SUMMER HILL RESIDENTIAL	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	FRANKLIN	—	—
3197	LAKEVIEW REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	MT	BIGFORK	0	—
3198	SORRENTO CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	DETROIT	0	—
3199	ORANGE CITY MUNICIPAL HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	ORANGE CITY	—	—
3200	PLANTATION VILLAGE NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	ALTUS	0	—

Showing 3,151–3,200 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.