Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

3,001–3,050

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
3001	CAMBRIDGE SOUTH HEALTHCARE CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	BEVERLY HILLS	0	—
3002	ASHTON HEALTHCARE	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	ATHENS	0	—
3003	SOUTHWEST REGIONAL SKILLED NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	LUBBOCK	—	—
3004	MIDWAY CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	FOSSTON	0	—
3005	GREENE COUNTY HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	A	MS	LEAKESVILLE	60	LONG TERM CARE MANAGEMENT LLC
3006	WV UNIVERSITY HOSPITALS , D/P	0.6%	77.5	—	WV	MORGANTOWN	—	—
3007	GEORGETOWN NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	GEORGETOWN	—	—
3008	LEE ALAN BRYANT HEALTH CARE FACILITY	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	ROCKVILLE	0	—
3009	CENTRAL FLORIDA REGIONAL HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	SANFORD	—	—
3010	MOLOKAI GENERAL HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	HI	KAUNAKAKAI	—	—
3011	EVERGREEN HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	SCRANTON	—	—
3012	ROSE BROOK CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	NE	EDGAR	0	—
3013	EDGEMONT CENTER,INC	0.6%	77.5	—	VA	WYTHEVILLE	—	—
3014	SUNVIEW CARE & REHAB CENTER LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	SAN ANTONIO	0	—
3015	SILVERADO SENIOR LIVING - TURTLE CREEK	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	DALLAS	—	—
3016	HAWAII MEDICAL CENTER EAST	0.6%	77.5	—	HI	HONOLULU	—	—
3017	GARDENS-LAGRANGE/VICTORIAN MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	LA GRANGE	0	—
3018	ST. MARY'S REGIONAL MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	ENID	—	—
3019	OAKVIEW HEALTHCARE RESIDENCE LTD	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	HUBBARD	—	—
3020	EDWIN MORGAN CTR OF SCOTLAND M	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	LAURINBURG	—	—
3021	PALACIOS HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	PALACIOS	—	—
3022	REHAB INST OF N Y AT FLORENCE NIGHTINGALE H C	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	NEW YORK	—	—
3023	AMERICARE CONVALESCENT CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	DETROIT	—	—
3024	VIVIANS NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	AMARILLO	0	—
3025	MUENSTER HEALTH & REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	MUENSTER	0	—
3026	PIONEER MEDICAL CENTER LTC	0.6%	77.5	—	MT	BIG TIMBER	0	—
3027	MCGIRR NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	VT	BELLOWS FALLS	—	—
3028	MANORCARE HEALTH SERVICES OF WEST DES MOINES	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	WEST DES MOINES	—	—
3029	CRESCENT COURT NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	LODI	0	—
3030	HEARTLAND CARE OF HOBBS	0.6%	77.5	—	NM	HOBBS	—	—
3031	SSM DEPAUL HEALTH CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	BRIDGETON	0	—
3032	SNOW VALLEY NRSG & REHAB CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	LISLE	—	—
3033	LILY POND NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	STATEN ISLAND	—	—
3034	WINLEN OAKS LIVING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	FREDERICK	0	—
3035	HOSPICE OF SAINT JOHN - LTC	0.6%	77.5	—	CO	LAKEWOOD	—	—
3036	EVERGREEN CENTRALIA HEALTH & R	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	CENTRALIA	0	—
3037	ELMWOOD NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	MARLIN	0	—
3038	EAST GRAND NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	DETROIT	0	—
3039	THE BRIXTON AT HORSESHOE BAY	0.6%	77.5	B	TX	HORSESHOE BAY	0	—
3040	LAKELAND SPECIALTY HOSPITAL AT BERRIEN CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	BERRIEN CENTER	—	—
3041	PARK MANOR NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	BLOOMFIELD	—	—
3042	ARIZONA GRAND SENIOR LIVING COMMUNITY	0.6%	77.5	—	AZ	PHOENIX	0	—
3043	YORK HOSPITAL STRATER UNIT	0.6%	77.5	—	ME	YORK	0	—
3044	SPRING BRANCH HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	HOUSTON	—	—
3045	MANORCARE HEALTH SERVICES-NORTHWEST	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	OKLAHOMA CITY	—	—
3046	TEMPLE COMMUNITY HOSP D P SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	LOS ANGELES	—	—
3047	EASTERN SHORE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE	—	—
3048	ST VINCENT INFIRMARY MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	LITTLE ROCK	—	—
3049	VILLAGE VISTA MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	LANCASTER	0	—
3050	MCCURDY HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	EVANSVILLE	0	—

Showing 3,001–3,050 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.