Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,951–3,000

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2951	DENVER MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	WICHITA FALLS	0	—
2952	MARSHALL LANE MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	CT	DERBY	—	—
2953	FORUM GROUP AT MORAN LAKE NSG & REHAB CENTER LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	GA	ROME	0	—
2954	HEALTHSOUTH REHAB HOSPITAL OF TOMS RIVER	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	TOMS RIVER	—	—
2955	MISSION NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	CUERO	—	—
2956	SANFORD PRAIRIEVIEW LIVING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	ND	UNDERWOOD	—	—
2957	HEARTLAND CARE INC D/B/A HEARTLAND CARE OF ARTESIA	0.6%	77.5	—	NM	ARTESIA	0	—
2958	EMERALD PARK HEALTH CARE CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	EVERGREEN PARK	—	—
2959	MYA HEALTH CARE	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	PALESTINE	—	—
2960	MANORCARE AT URBANA	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	URBANA	—	—
2961	CLINTONVILLE MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	CT	NORTH HAVEN	—	—
2962	COVENANT CARE OF O'FALLON	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	O FALLON	—	—
2963	ALDEN AT FORT HEALTHCARE, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	FORT ATKINSON	—	—
2964	FORUM GROUP AT WILDWOOD PARK NSG & REHAB CTR LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	GA	BRUNSWICK	—	—
2965	NORTHWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	MARBLE FALLS	—	—
2966	COOPER COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	BOONVILLE	0	—
2967	MORNINGCREST NURSING AND MEMORY CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	SOUTH BEND	—	—
2968	ARBORS AT TOLEDO SUBACUTE RE	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	TOLEDO	—	—
2969	METHODIST HOSPITAL EXTENDED CA	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	GOLDEN VALLEY	—	—
2970	NORTHOME HEALTHCARE CENTER INC	0.6%	77.5	—	MN	NORTHOME	—	—
2971	TOWNE CENTRE HEALTH CARE	0.6%	77.5	—	IN	MERRILLVILLE	—	—
2972	SCHUYLKILL MEDICAL CENTER-SOUTH JACKSON STREET TCU	0.6%	77.5	—	PA	POTTSVILLE	—	—
2973	CAMDEN CLARK MEM HOSP	0.6%	77.5	—	WV	PARKERSBURG	—	—
2974	SUTTER TRACY COMMUNITY HOSP	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	TRACY	—	—
2975	ADKINS CARE CENTER #2	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	EAST LIVERPOOL	0	—
2976	HIGHLINE CARE CENTERS, L L C	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	EAST WENATCHEE	—	—
2977	Huntersville Oaks	0.6%	77.5	B	NC	Huntersville	168	ADVOCATE HEALTH INC
2978	EASTLAND HEALTHCARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	EASTLAND	—	—
2979	MATER DEI NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	NEWFIELD	—	—
2980	ST MARY'S HOSPITAL--DECATUR	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	DECATUR	—	—
2981	CEDAR KNOLL CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	GRASS LAKE	0	—
2982	HOSPITALITY CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	ARKADELPHIA	—	—
2983	ST JUDE MEDICAL CENTER D/P SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	FULLERTON	—	—
2984	SAN GERARDO HOSP	0.6%	77.5	—	PR	RIO PIEDRAS	0	—
2985	SAN GORGONIO MEMORIAL HOSPITAL D/P SNF	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	BANNING	—	—
2986	LIFE CARE CENTER OF WEST SEATTLE	0.6%	77.5	—	WA	SEATTLE	—	—
2987	COLONIAL ESTATES	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	GUTHRIE	—	—
2988	HILLTOP LODGE	0.6%	77.5	—	KY	OWINGSVILLE	—	—
2989	MAURY REGIONAL HOSPITAL SNU	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	COLUMBIA	—	—
2990	ACUITY SPECIALTY HOSPITAL OF ARIZONA AT MESA	0.6%	77.5	—	AZ	MESA	—	—
2991	BRISTOL NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	BRISTOL	—	—
2992	MILDRED ALFORD NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	ABINGTON	0	—
2993	FORUM GROUP AT MOUNT BERRY NURSING & REHAB CTR LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	GA	ROME	0	—
2994	ARNOT OGDEN MED CTR R H C F	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	ELMIRA	—	—
2995	ABILENE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	ABILENE	0	—
2996	Universal Health Care/Nashville	0.6%	77.5	—	NC	Nashville	—	—
2997	CALLAWAY NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	SULPHUR	—	—
2998	BON-ING CARE AND REHABILITATION CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	GAHANNA	0	—
2999	Grossmont Gardens Healthcare Center	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	LA MESA	0	—
3000	NORTHVIEW SENIOR LIVING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	JOHNSTOWN	0	—

Showing 2,951–3,000 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.