Ownership-change pipeline

Distress Radar

p(Medicare termination, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

15,359

active SNFs, scored

Model

v0.1

p_adverse_action_12m · deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

95.4%

of actual next-12m terminations on holdout

Base rate

0.6%

observed 12m termination rate, training panels

Ranked by termination probability

2,901–2,950

#	Facility	p(exit 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
2901	THE MILLENNIUM INSTITUTE FOR ADVANCE NURSING CARE	0.6%	77.5	—	PR	RIO PIEDRAS	0	—
2902	SHAMROCK NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	SHAMROCK	—	—
2903	ROCKFORD NURSING & REHAB CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	ROCKFORD	0	—
2904	WHISPERING OAKS CARE CTR	0.6%	77.5	—	WI	PESHTIGO	0	—
2905	ROCKDALE RESIDENCE AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	ROCKDALE	0	—
2906	OUR LADY OF MERCY HEALTH CARE	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	WORCESTER	—	—
2907	HELIA HEALTHCARE OF ROLLA	0.6%	77.5	—	MO	ROLLA	—	—
2908	LAKESHORE VILLAS HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	TAMPA	0	—
2909	WARSAW HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	VA	WARSAW	—	—
2910	Linden Court	0.6%	77.5	C	NE	North Platte	135	VETTER SENIOR LIVING
2911	EXETER HEALTHCARE	0.6%	77.5	—	NH	EXETER	—	—
2912	BLUEPOINT NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MD	BALTIMORE	—	—
2913	HEYWOOD TRANSITIONAL CARE CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	GARDNER	—	—
2914	KLAMATH REGIONAL REHAB CT	0.6%	77.5	—	OR	KLAMATH FALLS	—	—
2915	MARY GREELEY MEDICAL CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	AMES	—	—
2916	MEDILODGE OF BLOOMFIELD HILLS, INC	0.6%	77.5	—	MI	BLOOMFIELD HILLS	0	—
2917	HEARTWOOD NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER INC	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	TAYLOR	—	—
2918	CALERA MANOR, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	OK	CALERA	0	—
2919	PERRY MEMORIAL HOSP SNU	0.6%	77.5	—	IL	PRINCETON	0	—
2920	WELLINGTON MANOR NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	WELLINGTON	0	—
2921	PASADENA MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	FL	SOUTH PASADENA	0	—
2922	CABRINI CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHAB S N F	0.6%	77.5	—	NY	NEW YORK	—	—
2923	CENTURY VILLA HEALTH CARE	0.6%	77.5	B	IN	GREENTOWN	84	PUTNAM COUNTY HOSPITAL
2924	TERRELL MANOR	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	TERRELL	0	—
2925	INSPIRA TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT WOODBURY	0.6%	77.5	—	NJ	WOODBURY	0	—
2926	HAMILTON CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MD	BALTIMORE	—	—
2927	LIBERTY NRSG CTR OF WHEELERSBURG	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	WHEELERSBURG	0	—
2928	GOSNELL HEALTHCARE	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	GOSNELL	0	—
2929	HOLYOKE GERIATRIC AND CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	MA	HOLYOKE	—	—
2930	MERCY MEDICAL CENTER-SIOUX CITY	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	SIOUX CITY	0	—
2931	AMERICARE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	MEMPHIS	0	—
2932	WEST PLACE NURSING CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	ATHENS	—	—
2933	GREENWOOD LEFLORE SUB ACUTE UN	0.6%	77.5	—	MS	GREENWOOD	—	—
2934	CANTON REGENCY NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	CANTON	—	—
2935	MARGUERITE GARDENS	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	ALHAMBRA	0	—
2936	HEALTHSOUTH TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.6%	77.5	—	UT	SANDY	—	—
2937	SANTA PAULA HEALTHCARE	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	SANTA PAULA	—	—
2938	PARK HAVEN HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	OH	ASHTABULA	0	—
2939	HOLIDAY PINES NURSING AND REHABILITATION LP	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	WOODVILLE	—	—
2940	MONTEREY CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	MONTEREY	0	—
2941	RESTHAVEN LIVING CENTER, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	LA	BOGALUSA	0	—
2942	AUBURN HILLS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.6%	77.5	—	AR	MOUNTAIN HOME	0	—
2943	MOUNTAIN VIEW LODGE	0.6%	77.5	—	TX	BIG SPRING	0	—
2944	CARONDELET HOLY CROSS HOSPITAL	0.6%	77.5	—	AZ	NOGALES	—	—
2945	ALAMEDA HOSPITAL AT WATERS EDGE	0.6%	77.5	—	CA	ALAMEDA	—	—
2946	SEA VIEW NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	VI	ST THOMAS	0	—
2947	SEYMOUR HEALTH AND REHAB	0.6%	77.5	—	IA	SEYMOUR	—	—
2948	CONTINIUMCARE OF WEBER CITY, LLC	0.6%	77.5	—	VA	WEBER CITY	0	—
2949	FRANKLIN TRANSITIONAL CARE	0.6%	77.5	—	TN	JOHNSON CITY	—	—
2950	PENOBSCOT NURSING HOME	0.6%	77.5	—	ME	PENOBSCOT	0	—

Showing 2,901–2,950 of 15,359 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.