Ownership-change pipeline

CHOW Radar

p(change of ownership, next 12 months) · SNF only · holdout AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x

Ownership change Termination risk

Universe

16,900

active SNFs, scored

Model

p_chow_12m v0.1

deterministic logistic, public records only

Top decile captures

49.6%

of actual next-12m sales on holdout

Base rate

2.4%

observed 12m CHOW rate, training panels

Ranked by sale probability

10,051–10,100

#	Facility	p(CHOW 12m)	Percentile	Grade	State	City	Beds	Chain
10051	Maryfield Nursing Home	0.2%	37.0	A	NC	High Point	115	—
10052	PASADENA MANOR	0.2%	37.0	—	FL	SOUTH PASADENA	0	—
10053	CABRINI CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHAB S N F	0.2%	37.0	—	NY	NEW YORK	—	—
10054	TERRELL MANOR	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	TERRELL	0	—
10055	INSPIRA TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT WOODBURY	0.2%	37.0	—	NJ	WOODBURY	0	—
10056	HAMILTON CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	MD	BALTIMORE	—	—
10057	LIBERTY NRSG CTR OF WHEELERSBURG	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	WHEELERSBURG	0	—
10058	GOSNELL HEALTHCARE	0.2%	37.0	—	AR	GOSNELL	0	—
10059	HAMLIN PLACE OF BOYNTON BEACH	0.2%	37.0	A	FL	LANTANA	120	—
10060	HOLYOKE GERIATRIC AND CONVALESCENT CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	MA	HOLYOKE	—	—
10061	MERCY MEDICAL CENTER-SIOUX CITY	0.2%	37.0	—	IA	SIOUX CITY	0	—
10062	AMERICARE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TN	MEMPHIS	0	—
10063	WEST PLACE NURSING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	ATHENS	—	—
10064	GREENWOOD LEFLORE SUB ACUTE UN	0.2%	37.0	—	MS	GREENWOOD	—	—
10065	CANTON REGENCY NURSING AND REHAB CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	CANTON	—	—
10066	MARGUERITE GARDENS	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	ALHAMBRA	0	—
10067	LOGAN ACRES	0.2%	37.0	A	OH	BELLEFONTAINE	110	—
10068	HEALTHSOUTH TRANSITIONAL CARE UNIT	0.2%	37.0	—	UT	SANDY	—	—
10069	SANTA PAULA HEALTHCARE	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	SANTA PAULA	—	—
10070	PARK HAVEN HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	OH	ASHTABULA	0	—
10071	HOLIDAY PINES NURSING AND REHABILITATION LP	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	WOODVILLE	—	—
10072	MONTEREY CONVALESCENT HOSPITAL	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	MONTEREY	0	—
10073	RESTHAVEN LIVING CENTER, LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	LA	BOGALUSA	0	—
10074	AUBURN HILLS NURSING AND REHABILITATION	0.2%	37.0	—	AR	MOUNTAIN HOME	0	—
10075	MOUNTAIN VIEW LODGE	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	BIG SPRING	0	—
10076	CARONDELET HOLY CROSS HOSPITAL	0.2%	37.0	—	AZ	NOGALES	—	—
10077	ALAMEDA HOSPITAL AT WATERS EDGE	0.2%	37.0	—	CA	ALAMEDA	—	—
10078	SEA VIEW NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	VI	ST THOMAS	0	—
10079	SEYMOUR HEALTH AND REHAB	0.2%	37.0	—	IA	SEYMOUR	—	—
10080	CONTINIUMCARE OF WEBER CITY, LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	VA	WEBER CITY	0	—
10081	FRANKLIN TRANSITIONAL CARE	0.2%	37.0	—	TN	JOHNSON CITY	—	—
10082	PENOBSCOT NURSING HOME	0.2%	37.0	—	ME	PENOBSCOT	0	—
10083	DENVER MANOR	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	WICHITA FALLS	0	—
10084	MARSHALL LANE MANOR	0.2%	37.0	—	CT	DERBY	—	—
10085	FORUM GROUP AT MORAN LAKE NSG & REHAB CENTER LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	GA	ROME	0	—
10086	HEALTHSOUTH REHAB HOSPITAL OF TOMS RIVER	0.2%	37.0	—	NJ	TOMS RIVER	—	—
10087	MISSION NURSING & REHABILITATION	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	CUERO	—	—
10088	SANFORD PRAIRIEVIEW LIVING CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	ND	UNDERWOOD	—	—
10089	HEARTLAND CARE INC D/B/A HEARTLAND CARE OF ARTESIA	0.2%	37.0	—	NM	ARTESIA	0	—
10090	United Transitional Care Center	0.2%	37.0	A	WV	BRIDGEPORT	32	—
10091	EMERALD PARK HEALTH CARE CTR	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	EVERGREEN PARK	—	—
10092	MYA HEALTH CARE	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	PALESTINE	—	—
10093	MANORCARE AT URBANA	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	URBANA	—	—
10094	CLINTONVILLE MANOR	0.2%	37.0	—	CT	NORTH HAVEN	—	—
10095	COVENANT CARE OF O'FALLON	0.2%	37.0	—	IL	O FALLON	—	—
10096	ALDEN AT FORT HEALTHCARE, LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	WI	FORT ATKINSON	—	—
10097	FORUM GROUP AT WILDWOOD PARK NSG & REHAB CTR LLC	0.2%	37.0	—	GA	BRUNSWICK	—	—
10098	NORTHWOOD HEALTH CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	TX	MARBLE FALLS	—	—
10099	COOPER COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL	0.2%	37.0	—	MO	BOONVILLE	0	—
10100	MORNINGCREST NURSING AND MEMORY CARE CENTER	0.2%	37.0	—	IN	SOUTH BEND	—	—

Showing 10,051–10,100 of 16,900 scored SNFs← Prev Next →

Movers — largest changes between published composite scores

Facility	State	Setting	Previous	Current	Δ	As of
Crouse Community Center Inc	NY	adult day	0.0	98.5	+98.5	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	98.3	5.4	-92.9	2026-07-28
HOMEWELL CARE SERVICES	FL	home health	98.3	6.3	-92.0	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	97.2	6.3	-90.9	2026-07-28
HOME HEART FLORIDA	FL	home health	97.7	7.4	-90.3	2026-07-28
VITALCARING GROUP	FL	home health	98.1	10.4	-87.7	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	90.6	3.0	-87.6	2026-07-28
RIGHT AT HOME	FL	home health	93.8	8.2	-85.6	2026-07-28
SENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS	FL	home health	6.3	91.0	+84.7	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	98.9	16.2	-82.7	2026-07-28
BAYSHORE HOME CARE	FL	home health	97.6	15.1	-82.5	2026-07-28
VISITING ANGELS OF THE EMERALD COAST	FL	home health	97.8	15.6	-82.2	2026-07-28
HOME INSTEAD	FL	home health	6.3	88.5	+82.2	2026-07-28
ASSISTING HANDS GULF COAST	FL	home health	97.1	15.6	-81.5	2026-07-28
ALL WAYS CARING HOMECARE	FL	home health	16.3	97.6	+81.3	2026-07-28

Delta between the two most recent published values per facility and score_type. History is change-suppressed, so prev_at can predate computed_at by weeks; both timestamps are given.

p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes. Probabilities are calibrated guesses, not records; a facility can rank high and never sell. Composite grades never include predictions, and predictions never feed the composite.