Reads as: riskier than 35.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
ELLENBOGEN MOSS
21 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.25
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.12
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.16
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.28
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
111.3
3.25
0.12
0.84
2.29
3.16
1.4%
2025Q3
92
112.0
2.97
0.11
0.84
2.03
2.99
0.0%
2025Q2
91
112.5
3.10
0.15
0.84
2.12
3.12
0.4%
2025Q1
90
111.4
3.17
0.14
0.95
2.07
3.17
0.0%
2024Q4
92
113.9
3.07
0.14
0.89
2.05
3.07
0.0%
2024Q3
92
111.9
3.13
0.13
0.88
2.12
3.15
0.0%
2024Q2
91
110.3
3.12
0.20
0.81
2.11
2.99
0.0%
2024Q1
91
113.0
3.28
0.33
0.91
2.05
3.01
0.0%
2023Q4
92
111.3
3.28
0.19
0.98
2.11
2.98
0.0%
2023Q3
92
109.5
3.35
0.18
1.05
2.12
3.12
0.0%
2023Q2
91
108.6
3.45
0.19
0.95
2.31
3.19
0.0%
2023Q1
90
112.7
3.42
0.17
0.95
2.31
3.20
1.0%
2022Q4
92
108.6
3.29
0.15
0.93
2.22
3.27
0.0%
2022Q3
92
109.7
3.28
0.19
0.98
2.11
3.11
0.0%
2022Q2
91
106.5
3.20
0.21
0.92
2.07
2.95
0.0%
2022Q1
90
113.2
3.40
0.25
0.91
2.25
3.27
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-01-30
2025-04-03
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-03
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-03
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-03
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-03
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-03
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-03
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-05-12
2025-04-03
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-05-12
2024-01-11
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-02-15
2024-01-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-02-15
2023-11-08
Health · complaint
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
K
2023-11-16
2023-11-08
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
K
2023-11-16
2023-11-08
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2023-11-16
2022-07-20
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
F
2022-08-29
2022-07-20
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2022-08-29
2022-07-20
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2022-08-29
2022-07-20
Health
F0745
Provide medically-related social services to help each resident achieve the highest possible quality of life.
D
2022-08-29
2022-07-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2022-08-29
2022-07-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-08-29
2022-07-20
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2022-08-29
2022-07-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2022-08-29
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
8
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WILLISTON NURSING HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAIJNATH, HEMWATTIE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
ELLENBOGEN, MOSS
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FL MASTER OPCO HOLDCO II LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FL SNF TRUST I
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
FL SNF TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
HEMWATTIE BAIJNATH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2023-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MOSS ELLENBOGEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2023-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-07-31
$17,184
—
$17,184
—
—
3
—
2022-12-31
$16,216
—
$16,216
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$12,318
—
$12,318
—
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$13,830
—
$13,830
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12075
acs median gross
0
$580
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12075
fmr
0
$735
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12075
acs median gross
1
$457
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12075
fmr
1
$831
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12075
acs median gross
2
$834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12075
fmr
2
$974
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12075
acs median gross
3
$941
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12075
fmr
3
$1,238
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12075
acs median gross
4
$798
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12075
fmr
4
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12075
acs median gross
$850
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12075
acs recent mover gross
$713
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32696
acs median gross
1
$429
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32696
acs median gross
2
$818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32696
acs median gross
3
$1,011
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32696
acs median gross
4
$774
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32696
acs median gross
$854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32696
payment standard 110
0
$1,166
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
payment standard 90
0
$954
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
safmr
0
$1,060
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
payment standard 110
1
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
payment standard 90
1
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
safmr
1
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
payment standard 110
2
$1,573
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
payment standard 90
2
$1,287
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
safmr
2
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
payment standard 110
3
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
payment standard 90
3
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
safmr
3
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
payment standard 110
4
$2,079
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
payment standard 90
4
$1,701
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32696
safmr
4
$1,890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.