161A MARINE STREET, SAINT AUGUSTINE, FL 32084 · CCN 105816 · chain ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
Composite
88.4 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
120
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 88.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.40
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.19
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.26
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.45
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
102.8
3.40
0.19
1.08
2.12
3.26
0.0%
2025Q3
92
99.9
3.62
0.26
1.08
2.28
3.52
0.0%
2025Q2
91
109.5
3.39
0.25
0.82
2.32
3.33
14.6%
2025Q1
90
106.9
3.25
0.34
0.76
2.15
3.18
3.9%
2024Q4
92
105.2
3.28
0.42
0.63
2.23
3.19
2.8%
2024Q3
92
101.5
3.38
0.42
0.72
2.25
3.28
0.0%
2024Q2
91
105.7
3.33
0.46
0.71
2.15
3.23
0.1%
2024Q1
91
108.4
3.43
0.52
0.71
2.19
3.30
11.5%
2023Q4
92
109.8
3.75
0.57
0.76
2.42
3.66
16.7%
2023Q3
92
110.7
3.31
0.56
0.59
2.15
3.28
7.2%
2023Q2
91
108.9
3.55
0.65
0.71
2.19
3.42
5.5%
2023Q1
90
106.1
3.63
0.62
0.80
2.22
3.42
5.4%
2022Q4
92
104.7
3.61
0.45
0.74
2.42
3.39
9.1%
2022Q3
92
106.8
3.38
0.27
0.85
2.26
3.07
34.6%
2022Q2
91
95.0
3.39
0.41
0.80
2.19
3.29
52.0%
2022Q1
90
90.8
3.81
0.44
0.83
2.55
3.72
53.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2025-05-08
2025-04-10
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-05-09
2025-04-10
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2025-05-08
2025-04-10
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2025-05-08
2025-04-10
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-05-08
2025-04-10
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-05-08
2024-12-04
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-01-03
2024-12-04
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
D
2025-01-03
2024-05-17
Health · complaint
F0624
Prepare residents for a safe transfer or discharge from the nursing home.
G
2024-06-17
2024-05-17
Health · complaint
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
G
2024-06-17
2023-09-21
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2023-10-06
2023-09-21
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
J
2023-10-06
2023-09-21
Health · complaint
F0867
Set up an ongoing quality assessment and assurance group to review quality deficiencies and develop corrective plans of action.
J
2023-10-06
2023-05-18
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2023-06-18
2023-05-18
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2023-06-18
2023-05-18
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-06-18
2023-05-18
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-06-18
2023-05-18
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-06-18
2023-05-18
Health
F0802
Provide sufficient support personnel to safely and effectively carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service.
E
2023-06-18
2023-05-18
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-06-18
2021-09-16
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2021-10-21
2021-09-16
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
F
2021-10-21
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
14
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
LILAC SNF HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
ST. AUGUSTINE FL HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
ST. AUGUSTINE FL PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
90%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ST. AUGUSTINE FL PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
90%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
GORELICK, BATYA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
LAKE, LARRY
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
LILAC HEALTH GROUP LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-01-13
current
pecos_ownership
TERENTEV, ALEX
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-12-01
current
pecos_ownership
ST. AUGUSTINE FL PROPCO LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
90%
2022-01-13
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HC FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-01-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZANZIPER FAMILY TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2022-01-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BATYA GORELICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-01-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LARRY LAKE
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
0%
2022-01-13
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ALEX TERENTEV
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2021-12-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$3,741,368
—
$920,570
$1,120,906
$100,614
15
propco
2023-12-31
$3,205,926
—
$647,467
$820,179
$85,073
15
propco
2022-12-31
$2,625,902
—
$648,260
$681,744
—
11
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12109
acs median gross
0
$1,655
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12109
fmr
0
$1,355
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12109
acs median gross
1
$1,469
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12109
fmr
1
$1,382
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12109
acs median gross
2
$1,744
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12109
fmr
2
$1,658
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12109
acs median gross
3
$2,132
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12109
fmr
3
$2,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12109
acs median gross
4
$2,864
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12109
fmr
4
$2,561
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12109
acs median gross
5
$3,464
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12109
acs median gross
$1,922
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12109
acs recent mover gross
$2,219
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32084
acs median gross
0
$1,363
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32084
acs median gross
1
$1,318
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32084
acs median gross
2
$1,635
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32084
acs median gross
3
$1,618
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32084
acs median gross
4
$2,273
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32084
acs median gross
$1,567
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32084
acs recent mover gross
$1,860
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32084
payment standard 110
0
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
payment standard 90
0
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
safmr
0
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
payment standard 110
1
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
payment standard 90
1
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
safmr
1
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
payment standard 110
2
$1,815
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
payment standard 90
2
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
safmr
2
$1,650
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
payment standard 110
3
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
payment standard 90
3
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
safmr
3
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
payment standard 110
4
$2,805
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
payment standard 90
4
$2,295
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32084
safmr
4
$2,550
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.