Composite
62.9 / 100 percentile
Screener / 106147
C
BLUE HERON HEALTH AND REHABILITATION
snfFL
5085 EAGLESTON BLVD, WESLEY CHAPEL, FL 33544 · CCN 106147 · chain TENDER LOVING CARE MANAGEMENT INC
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
141
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 62.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model6ML signals1Components14CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing16Penalties0Deficiencies16Licensure0Ownership10Related party4Transactions0Comps12Market rent34
Composite explanation
6| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 81.8 | 54.1 | 0.30 | 0.2069 | 16.92 | in index |
| financial risk | 70.1 | 59.2 | 0.30 | 0.2069 | 14.50 | in index |
| lease risk | 83.2 | 77.5 | 0.15 | 0.1034 | 8.61 | in index |
| chow risk | 81.7 | 31.2 | 0.15 | 0.1034 | 8.45 | in index |
| staffing risk | 23.4 | 23.5 | 0.25 | 0.1724 | 4.03 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.30 | 0.2069 | 0.70 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1| Kind | Finding | Signal | Subject | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| connection | Owner spans multiple chains | 6 chains | SMITH KIMBERLY | 9 facilities |
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Component scores and registry models
14| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| billing conduct | 54.1 | C | v0.1-pacpuf-snf | default · in composite | R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup. |
| chow risk | 31.2 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| financial risk | 59.2 | C | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| lease risk | 77.5 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.0 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 1.7 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 2.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 23.5 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 65.5 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 59.4 | C | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 2.1 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 2.1 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 23.5 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 23.5 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
1.7%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
66.4
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.73 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | +0.69 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.82 | -0.15 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | -0.10 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.0%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
33.6
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 3.00 | +0.87 | |
| Occupancy | 0.95 | -0.85 | |
| For-profit ownership | 1.00 | -0.69 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 3.82 | -0.25 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Chain size (log) | 1.79 | +0.16 | |
| Facility size (log beds) | 4.96 | -0.13 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | FL median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 3.82 | 3.42 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.68 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 3.62 | 3.31 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 3.90 | 3.48 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 133.9 | 3.82 | 0.68 | 0.81 | 2.34 | 3.62 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 131.4 | 3.70 | 0.62 | 0.91 | 2.17 | 3.54 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 132.9 | 3.75 | 0.51 | 0.94 | 2.30 | 3.60 | 0.8% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 131.1 | 3.88 | 0.56 | 0.94 | 2.38 | 3.67 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 118.7 | 4.02 | 0.61 | 0.94 | 2.47 | 3.84 | 1.1% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 101.6 | 3.78 | 0.57 | 0.88 | 2.33 | 3.52 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q2 | 91 | 95.9 | 3.74 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 2.25 | 3.38 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 90.1 | 3.74 | 0.52 | 0.94 | 2.28 | 3.49 | 0.6% |
| 2023Q4 | 92 | 87.7 | 3.82 | 0.49 | 1.02 | 2.31 | 3.52 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q3 | 92 | 88.4 | 3.77 | 0.36 | 1.04 | 2.38 | 3.63 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q2 | 91 | 93.3 | 3.94 | 0.43 | 1.03 | 2.47 | 3.65 | 0.0% |
| 2023Q1 | 90 | 98.1 | 3.88 | 0.43 | 1.12 | 2.33 | 3.62 | 3.9% |
| 2022Q4 | 92 | 92.3 | 4.08 | 0.40 | 1.23 | 2.45 | 3.71 | 8.4% |
| 2022Q3 | 92 | 78.7 | 4.27 | 0.43 | 1.34 | 2.50 | 4.01 | 9.8% |
| 2022Q2 | 91 | 59.3 | 4.80 | 0.58 | 1.48 | 2.74 | 4.33 | 1.1% |
| 2022Q1 | 90 | 52.6 | 4.54 | 0.36 | 1.57 | 2.61 | 4.22 | 5.2% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16D × 9E × 5F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-31 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | E | 2025-08-31 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health | F0656 | Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured. | D | 2025-08-31 |
| 2025-07-31 | Health | F0692 | Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health. | D | 2025-08-31 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0558 | Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0561 | Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice. | E | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0625 | Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0644 | Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0657 | Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0688 | Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0758 | Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited. | E | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0759 | Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0801 | Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician. | D | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0812 | Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards. | F | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0814 | Dispose of garbage and refuse properly. | F | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0847 | Inform resident or representatives choice to enter into binding arbitration agreement and right to refuse. | E | 2023-05-26 |
| 2023-04-27 | Health | F0848 | Provide a neutral and fair arbitration process and agree to arbitrator and venue. | E | 2023-05-26 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT, DWIGHT | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2017-06-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OTT, GARY | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2017-06-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| OTT, RYAN | CORPORATE OFFICER | — | 2017-06-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| SMITH, KIMBERLY | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2020-11-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| TENDER LOVING CARE MANAGEMENT INC | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2017-06-28 | current | pecos_ownership |
| KIMBERLY SMITH | W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE | 100% | 2020-11-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| GARY OTT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 52% | 2017-06-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| OTT FAMILY TRUST | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 15% | 2017-06-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| RYAN OTT | CORPORATE OFFICER | 13% | 2017-06-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DWIGHT OTT | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 10% | 2017-06-28 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — FL snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | MARIANNA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | MARIANNA REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-20 | SOLARIS HEALTHCARE LELY PALMS | — | — | — | 117 | LP SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | GULF COAST MEDICAL CENTER SKILLED NURSING UNIT | — | — | — | 75 | LEE HEALTH SYSTEM INC |
| 2024-09-19 | ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA | — | — | — | 118 | ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | PENINSULA HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW | — | — | — | 120 | PENINSULA CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | BAYONET POINT HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW | — | — | — | 120 | LIVING CENTER OF BAYONET POINT BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | KISSIMMEE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | KISSIMMEE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | HARBORVIEW HEALTH CENTER WEST ALTAMONTE | — | — | — | 116 | WEST ALTAMONTE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | HARBORVIEW SARASOTA | — | — | — | 81 | SARASOTA CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE | — | — | — | 167 | NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-09 | WATERS EDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 36 | SANDHILL COVE LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | RIVERWOOD HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | RIVERWOOD NURSING SNF LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
34| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 12101 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,298 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12101 | fmr | 0 | $1,593 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12101 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,182 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12101 | fmr | 1 | $1,696 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12101 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,371 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12101 | fmr | 2 | $1,977 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12101 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,768 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12101 | fmr | 3 | $2,527 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12101 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,544 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12101 | fmr | 4 | $3,077 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12101 | acs median gross | 5 | $2,709 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12101 | acs median gross | $1,505 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 12101 | acs recent mover gross | $1,919 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 33544 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,874 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 33544 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,955 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 33544 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,959 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 33544 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,650 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 33544 | acs median gross | $1,979 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 33544 | acs recent mover gross | $1,960 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,343 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,917 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | safmr | 0 | $2,130 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,486 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $2,034 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | safmr | 1 | $2,260 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,904 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,376 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | safmr | 2 | $2,640 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,718 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,042 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | safmr | 3 | $3,380 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,521 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,699 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 33544 | safmr | 4 | $4,110 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.