Reads as: riskier than 70.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
SHELBY JACK
31 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.19
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.56
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.14
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.22
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
78.7
3.19
0.56
0.53
2.10
3.14
0.1%
2025Q3
92
77.7
3.23
0.59
0.52
2.12
3.16
0.4%
2025Q2
91
80.1
3.26
0.63
0.47
2.16
3.14
0.2%
2025Q1
90
81.2
3.16
0.63
0.43
2.10
3.09
0.0%
2024Q4
92
78.3
3.26
0.62
0.46
2.17
3.22
1.0%
2024Q3
92
79.7
3.23
0.53
0.51
2.18
3.17
3.5%
2024Q2
91
80.9
3.25
0.58
0.48
2.19
3.09
3.0%
2024Q1
91
79.5
3.40
0.73
0.46
2.20
3.28
0.6%
2023Q4
92
81.4
3.43
0.85
0.39
2.18
3.34
0.0%
2023Q3
92
79.3
3.39
0.84
0.45
2.10
3.35
0.0%
2023Q2
91
77.0
3.62
0.85
0.49
2.28
3.30
0.0%
2023Q1
90
77.8
3.57
0.70
0.54
2.33
3.21
0.0%
2022Q4
92
77.3
3.71
0.49
0.78
2.43
3.43
5.6%
2022Q3
92
75.5
3.73
0.32
0.87
2.54
3.47
6.5%
2022Q2
91
68.5
3.71
0.26
1.04
2.41
3.39
6.6%
2022Q1
90
65.2
3.76
0.21
0.84
2.71
3.40
0.9%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-10-10
2025-09-11
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2025-10-10
2025-09-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2025-10-10
2025-09-11
Health
F0698
Provide safe, appropriate dialysis care/services for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-10-10
2025-09-11
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2025-10-10
2025-09-11
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2025-10-10
2025-09-11
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2025-10-10
2025-09-11
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-10-10
2025-09-11
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2025-10-10
2024-10-23
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-10-16
2024-05-16
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0756
Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0883
Develop and implement policies and procedures for flu and pneumonia vaccinations.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0909
Regularly inspect all bed frames, mattresses, and bed rails (if any) for safety; and all bed rails and mattresses must attach safely to the bed frame.
D
2024-06-14
2024-05-16
Health
F0919
Make sure that a working call system is available in each resident's bathroom and bathing area.
D
2024-06-14
2023-03-02
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2023-03-31
2023-03-02
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2023-03-31
2023-03-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-03-31
2023-03-02
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-03-31
2023-03-02
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2023-03-31
2023-03-02
Health
F0810
Provide special eating equipment and utensils for residents who need them and appropriate assistance.
D
2023-03-31
2023-03-02
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2023-03-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
8
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NORTH LAKE NURSING HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKMAN, RUSSELL
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
FL MASTER OPCO HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
FL SNF TRUST I
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
FL SNF TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
SHELBY, JACK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
JACK SHELBY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RUSSELL BLACKMAN
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2022-07-26
$5,710
—
$5,710
—
—
3
—
2021-12-31
$7,979
—
$7,979
—
—
3
—
2020-12-31
$8,893
—
$8,893
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12099
acs median gross
0
$1,584
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
0
$1,788
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
1
$1,688
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
1
$1,901
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
2
$1,878
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
2
$2,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
3
$2,281
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
3
$2,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
4
$2,678
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
4
$3,388
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
5
$3,061
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
acs median gross
$1,916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
acs recent mover gross
$2,333
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33403
acs median gross
1
$1,150
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33403
acs median gross
2
$1,488
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33403
acs median gross
3
$2,220
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33403
acs median gross
4
$2,392
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33403
acs median gross
$1,601
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 33403
payment standard 110
0
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
payment standard 90
0
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
safmr
0
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
payment standard 110
1
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
payment standard 90
1
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
safmr
1
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
payment standard 110
2
$2,002
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
payment standard 90
2
$1,638
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
safmr
2
$1,820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
payment standard 110
3
$2,596
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
payment standard 90
3
$2,124
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
safmr
3
$2,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
payment standard 110
4
$3,014
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
payment standard 90
4
$2,466
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33403
safmr
4
$2,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.