Reads as: riskier than 43.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
3
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
ASTON HEALTHCARE LLC
26 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
WILDES DONNA
18 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
DILELLA VINCENT
4 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.16
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.49
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.08
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.19
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
170.5
3.16
0.49
0.64
2.03
3.08
1.6%
2025Q3
92
173.6
3.14
0.51
0.59
2.03
3.06
0.2%
2025Q2
91
172.2
3.11
0.48
0.59
2.04
3.06
0.0%
2025Q1
90
173.6
3.17
0.54
0.60
2.02
3.05
0.9%
2024Q4
92
169.4
3.18
0.55
0.62
2.01
3.07
2.3%
2024Q3
92
167.9
3.14
0.56
0.62
1.96
3.05
4.6%
2024Q2
91
168.4
3.10
0.54
0.59
1.97
3.04
8.1%
2024Q1
91
161.7
3.19
0.54
0.66
1.99
3.11
4.9%
2023Q4
92
158.2
3.36
0.52
0.74
2.10
3.21
9.7%
2023Q3
92
150.9
3.22
0.52
0.61
2.09
3.19
10.2%
2023Q2
91
149.6
3.32
0.52
0.71
2.09
3.25
3.5%
2023Q1
90
155.2
3.40
0.50
0.72
2.18
3.30
0.2%
2022Q4
92
157.3
3.36
0.44
0.75
2.17
3.32
0.0%
2022Q3
92
151.7
3.33
0.45
0.77
2.11
3.33
0.0%
2022Q2
91
145.7
3.14
0.47
0.69
1.98
3.10
1.6%
2022Q1
90
150.1
3.38
0.45
0.64
2.29
3.23
16.6%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
23
D × 15E × 7F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-12
Health · complaint
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2026-02-12
2025-12-11
Health
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
E
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health · complaint
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2026-01-11
2025-12-11
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
E
2026-01-11
2023-08-02
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2023-09-02
2023-08-02
Health
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2023-09-02
2023-08-02
Health
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2023-09-02
2023-08-02
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-09-02
2023-08-02
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-09-02
2021-08-13
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2021-09-10
2021-08-13
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2021-09-10
2021-08-13
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2021-09-10
2021-08-13
Health
F0800
Provide each resident with a nourishing, palatable, well-balanced diet that meets his or her daily nutritional and special dietary needs.
D
2021-09-10
2021-08-13
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2021-09-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
18
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
OAKPARK REHAB HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-01-04
current
pecos_ownership
BP OAKPARK TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
LF OAKPARK TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
ASTON HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
BERARD, LORI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-06
current
pecos_ownership
DILELLA, VINCENT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-06
current
pecos_ownership
DILELLA, VINCENT
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-18
current
pecos_ownership
FERRONE, KAREN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-02
current
pecos_ownership
REYNARD-SURIANO, SU
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-09
current
pecos_ownership
REYNARD-SURIANO, SU
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
WILDES, DONNA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
DONNA WILDES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KAREN FERRONE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-04-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI BERARD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-08-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SU REYNARD-SURIANO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SU REYNARD-SURIANO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-09
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINCENT DILELLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-06
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VINCENT DILELLA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-09-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-05-04
$600,017
—
$600,017
—
—
2
—
2022-05-31
$594,602
—
$594,602
—
—
2
—
2021-05-31
$680,642
—
$680,642
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12103
acs median gross
0
$1,353
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12103
fmr
0
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12103
acs median gross
1
$1,391
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12103
fmr
1
$1,696
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12103
acs median gross
2
$1,712
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12103
fmr
2
$1,977
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12103
acs median gross
3
$2,050
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12103
fmr
3
$2,527
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12103
acs median gross
4
$2,324
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12103
fmr
4
$3,077
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12103
acs median gross
5
$2,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12103
acs median gross
$1,642
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12103
acs recent mover gross
$1,906
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34684
acs median gross
0
$1,404
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34684
acs median gross
1
$1,627
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34684
acs median gross
2
$1,997
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34684
acs median gross
3
$1,861
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34684
acs median gross
4
$3,250
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34684
acs median gross
$1,854
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34684
acs recent mover gross
$1,635
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 34684
payment standard 110
0
$1,914
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
payment standard 90
0
$1,566
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
safmr
0
$1,740
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
payment standard 110
1
$2,035
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
payment standard 90
1
$1,665
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
safmr
1
$1,850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
payment standard 110
2
$2,376
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
payment standard 90
2
$1,944
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
safmr
2
$2,160
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
payment standard 110
3
$3,036
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
payment standard 90
3
$2,484
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
safmr
3
$2,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
payment standard 110
4
$3,696
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
payment standard 90
4
$3,024
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34684
safmr
4
$3,360
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.