2850 PORTER'S CHAPEL ROAD, VICKSBURG, MS 39180 · CCN 255140 · chain NEXION HEALTH INC
Composite
95.6 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
107
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 95.6% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
18
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+27.5 vs natl
RINER MEERA
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.4 vs natl
LEE BRIAN
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+25.4 vs natl
NEXION HEALTH INC
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.8 vs natl
NEXION HEALTH LEASING INC
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+24.6 vs natl
HERDRICH WILLIAM
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.7 vs natl
NEXION HEALTH OF OHI INC
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.5 vs natl
BOLT BRETTON
30 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.4 vs natl
KIRLEY FRANCIS
50 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
10 chains
KIRLEY FRANCIS
49 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
RINER MEERA
46 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
LEE BRIAN
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
46% fined
RINER MEERA
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
KIRLEY FRANCIS
50 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
44% fined
LEE BRIAN
46 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
NEXION HEALTH INC
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
NEXION HEALTH LEASING INC
33 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
42% fined
NEXION HEALTH OF OHI INC
31 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
40% fined
BOLT BRETTON
30 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MS median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.86
3.68
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.02
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.67
3.30
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.94
3.82
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
100.8
2.86
0.02
0.97
1.86
2.67
17.2%
2025Q3
92
93.9
3.04
0.05
0.96
2.02
3.00
14.4%
2025Q2
91
91.3
3.16
0.03
0.96
2.16
3.08
5.7%
2025Q1
90
93.2
2.98
0.04
0.92
2.03
2.88
12.6%
2024Q4
92
93.0
3.02
0.08
0.88
2.06
2.99
7.3%
2024Q3
92
94.0
2.96
0.12
0.81
2.03
2.98
5.0%
2024Q2
91
98.1
3.00
0.14
0.78
2.08
2.99
7.5%
2024Q1
91
96.5
2.75
0.15
0.71
1.89
2.74
9.4%
2023Q4
92
96.5
3.03
0.15
0.79
2.10
2.94
29.3%
2023Q3
92
98.7
3.03
0.14
0.77
2.12
2.98
42.8%
2023Q2
91
95.2
2.98
0.15
0.80
2.03
2.89
39.1%
2023Q1
90
91.9
2.84
0.20
0.70
1.93
2.76
31.0%
2022Q4
92
82.7
2.85
0.20
0.79
1.86
2.83
18.0%
2022Q3
92
87.5
3.26
0.12
0.85
2.29
3.02
23.4%
2022Q2
91
89.3
3.14
0.10
0.90
2.14
2.86
28.7%
2022Q1
90
79.4
3.41
0.09
1.06
2.26
3.02
26.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
—
2026-02-10
Health · complaint
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-02-27
2025-09-23
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
G
2025-10-14
2025-09-23
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2025-10-14
2025-02-25
Health · complaint
F0604
Ensure that each resident is free from the use of physical restraints, unless needed for medical treatment.
D
2025-02-19
2025-01-09
Health · complaint
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
E
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
B
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health · complaint
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health · complaint
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
F
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health
F0851
Electronically submit to CMS complete and accurate direct care staffing information, based on payroll and other verifiable and auditable data.
F
2025-01-31
2025-01-09
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-01-31
2023-10-26
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-11-24
2023-10-26
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
G
2023-11-24
2023-10-26
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
G
2023-11-24
2023-10-26
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-11-24
2023-10-26
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-11-24
2022-06-16
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2022-07-22
2022-06-16
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2022-07-22
2022-06-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-07-22
2022-06-16
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2022-07-22
2022-06-16
Health
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2022-07-22
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
16
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
NEXION HEALTH OF OHI INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
BOLT, BRETTON
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
HERDRICH, WILLIAM
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
KIRLEY, FRANCIS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
LEE, BRIAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN, AMANDA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NEXION HEALTH LEASING, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
NEXION HEALTH, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
NEXION HEALTH, INC.
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-03-28
current
pecos_ownership
RINER, MEERA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
FRANCIS KIRLEY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
61%
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
AMANDA MORGAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRETTON BOLT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN LEE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MEERA RINER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM HERDRICH
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2018-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$512,804
—
—
—
$101,050
0
—
2023-12-31
$567,897
—
—
—
$95,580
0
—
2022-12-31
$471,952
—
—
—
$88,595
0
—
2021-12-31
$596,108
—
—
—
$78,035
0
—
2020-12-31
$574,024
—
—
—
$102,427
0
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 28149
acs median gross
0
$1,483
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28149
fmr
0
$800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28149
acs median gross
1
$608
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28149
fmr
1
$805
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28149
acs median gross
2
$908
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28149
fmr
2
$953
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28149
acs median gross
3
$1,020
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28149
fmr
3
$1,181
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28149
acs median gross
4
$885
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28149
fmr
4
$1,336
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28149
acs median gross
5
$1,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28149
acs median gross
$888
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28149
acs recent mover gross
$1,161
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39180
acs median gross
1
$667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39180
acs median gross
2
$923
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39180
acs median gross
3
$1,044
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39180
acs median gross
4
$1,250
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39180
acs median gross
5
$791
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39180
acs median gross
$897
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39180
acs recent mover gross
$1,105
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 39180
payment standard 110
0
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
payment standard 90
0
$729
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
safmr
0
$810
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
payment standard 110
1
$902
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
payment standard 90
1
$738
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
safmr
1
$820
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
payment standard 110
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
payment standard 90
3
$1,080
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
safmr
3
$1,200
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
payment standard 110
4
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
payment standard 90
4
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39180
safmr
4
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.