Reads as: riskier than 63.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
ASTON HEALTHCARE LLC
26 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.71
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.69
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.52
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.78
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
92.3
3.71
0.69
0.80
2.22
3.52
0.0%
2025Q3
92
96.6
3.96
0.90
0.67
2.39
3.77
0.0%
2025Q2
91
99.1
4.05
0.94
0.69
2.41
3.82
0.0%
2025Q1
90
98.3
4.15
0.91
0.82
2.42
3.97
1.6%
2024Q4
92
86.3
4.09
0.94
0.72
2.43
3.98
0.6%
2024Q3
92
104.8
4.00
0.90
0.70
2.40
3.77
0.0%
2024Q2
91
104.4
4.30
0.85
0.85
2.60
3.98
7.0%
2024Q1
91
98.3
3.92
0.50
1.09
2.33
3.80
9.8%
2023Q4
92
90.8
3.75
0.44
1.07
2.24
3.59
5.3%
2023Q3
92
95.9
3.68
0.34
1.12
2.22
3.68
8.1%
2023Q2
91
113.0
3.37
0.29
1.01
2.08
3.36
11.0%
2023Q1
90
120.7
3.58
0.30
1.06
2.22
3.46
14.1%
2022Q4
92
105.9
4.00
0.29
1.19
2.52
3.86
24.4%
2022Q3
92
101.5
4.26
0.43
1.01
2.82
4.08
20.3%
2022Q2
91
94.6
4.65
0.43
1.34
2.88
4.63
47.6%
2022Q1
90
93.1
4.39
0.61
1.01
2.77
4.12
36.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-04-11
2025-12-09
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2026-01-21
2025-04-16
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-05-16
2025-04-16
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
G
2025-05-16
2025-04-16
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
G
2025-05-16
2024-11-13
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-12-10
2024-11-13
Health · complaint
F0694
Provide for the safe, appropriate administration of IV fluids for a resident when needed.
D
2024-12-10
2024-10-30
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-11-30
2024-10-30
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-11-30
2024-10-30
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2024-11-30
2024-09-27
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health · complaint
F0676
Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2024-10-25
2024-09-27
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
D
2024-10-25
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
D
2024-08-29
2024-08-02
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2024-08-29
2024-05-03
Health · complaint
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-06-03
2023-12-04
Health · complaint
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2024-01-03
2023-08-10
Health · complaint
F0573
Let each resident or the resident's legal representative access or purchase copies of all the resident's records.
D
2023-09-08
2023-08-10
Health · complaint
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2023-09-08
2023-08-10
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2023-09-08
2023-07-27
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-08-10
2023-07-27
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2023-08-10
2023-06-20
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-07-18
2023-06-20
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2023-07-18
2022-03-24
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2022-04-24
2022-03-24
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-04-24
2022-03-24
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2022-04-24
2022-03-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-04-24
2022-03-24
Health
F0882
Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home.
B
2022-04-24
2022-03-24
Health
F0908
Keep all essential equipment working safely.
D
2022-04-24
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
WELLINGTON REHAB HOLDING PARTNERS, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2020-07-14
current
pecos_ownership
WELLINGTON REHAB REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
33%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
WELLINGTON REHAB REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
33%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ASTON HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDMAN, LEOPOLD
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-05
current
pecos_ownership
JEROME, GERRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-27
current
pecos_ownership
LUXE CONSULTING GROUP LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MACFARLANE, KERRY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-24
current
pecos_ownership
MACFARLANE, KERRY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-11
current
pecos_ownership
PARNES-DE-LUCE, PEARL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-16
current
pecos_ownership
SCHUSTER, RACHEL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SCHUSTER, RACHEL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHERMAN, STEVEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-11
current
pecos_ownership
SHERMAN, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL GUTMAN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
99%
2021-05-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WELLINGTON REHAB REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Other (financial or non-financial)
33%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
GERRY JEROME
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERRY MACFARLANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KERRY MACFARLANE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PEARL PARNES-DE-LUCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-09-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RACHEL SCHUSTER
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2025-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
RACHEL SCHUSTER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN SHERMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-11-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN SHERMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WELLINGTON REHAB REALTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-05-14
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,773,744
$2,773,744
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$2,692,948
$2,692,948
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$2,507,842
$2,507,842
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$2,746,622
$2,746,622
—
—
—
1
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12099
acs median gross
0
$1,584
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
0
$1,788
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
1
$1,688
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
1
$1,901
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
2
$1,878
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
2
$2,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
3
$2,281
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
3
$2,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
4
$2,678
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
fmr
4
$3,388
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12099
acs median gross
5
$3,061
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
acs median gross
$1,916
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12099
acs recent mover gross
$2,333
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33414
acs median gross
0
$1,961
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33414
acs median gross
1
$1,862
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33414
acs median gross
2
$2,260
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33414
acs median gross
3
$2,667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33414
acs median gross
4
$3,430
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33414
acs median gross
5
$3,364
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33414
acs median gross
$2,434
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33414
acs recent mover gross
$2,929
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 33414
payment standard 110
0
$2,497
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
payment standard 90
0
$2,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
safmr
0
$2,270
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
payment standard 110
1
$2,651
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
payment standard 90
1
$2,169
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
safmr
1
$2,410
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
payment standard 110
2
$3,146
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
payment standard 90
2
$2,574
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
safmr
2
$2,860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
payment standard 110
3
$4,081
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
payment standard 90
3
$3,339
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
safmr
3
$3,710
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
payment standard 110
4
$4,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
payment standard 90
4
$3,870
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33414
safmr
4
$4,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.