Composite
69.9 / 100 percentile
Screener / 686128
C
ARDIE R COPAS STATE VETERANS NURSING HOME
snfFL
13000 SW TRADITION PARKWAY, PORT SAINT LUCIE, FL 34987 · CCN 686128 · chain FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
120
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 69.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
Score model5Components13CHOW radar1Distress radar1Staffing7Penalties0Deficiencies14Licensure0Ownership13Related party3Transactions0Comps12Market rent33
Composite explanation
5| Component | Percentile | Raw | Weight | Weight share | Contribution | Counts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| financial risk | 97.0 | 88.4 | 0.30 | 0.2609 | 25.30 | in index |
| lease risk | 89.8 | 79.6 | 0.15 | 0.1304 | 11.71 | in index |
| chow risk | 83.2 | 36.0 | 0.15 | 0.1304 | 10.85 | in index |
| regulatory risk | 29.5 | 20.1 | 0.30 | 0.2609 | 7.70 | in index |
| staffing risk | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.25 | 0.2174 | 0.35 | in index |
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
Component scores and registry models
13| Score type | Score | Grade | Model | Status | Registry model notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| chow risk | 36.0 | B | v0.1-pos | default · in composite | Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure. |
| financial risk | 88.4 | F | v0.5 | default · in composite | R18. |
| lease risk | 79.6 | D | v0.5 | default · in composite | |
| p adverse action 12m | 0.1 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| p chow 12m | 0.2 | — | v0.1 | default · in composite | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
| regulatory risk | 20.1 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos. |
| staffing risk | 1.7 | A | v0.3 | default · in composite | Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS. |
| financial risk | 70.3 | D | v0.3 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| financial risk | 87.4 | F | v0.4 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 20.0 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| regulatory risk | 20.0 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 1.7 | A | v0.1 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
| staffing risk | 1.7 | A | v0.2 | superseded | Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity. |
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability
full board →p(CHOW, 12m)
0.2%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
35.0
100 = most likely to sell
Holdout AUC
0.874
evaluated before shipping, never refit
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | -1.24 | |
| Occupancy | 0.97 | -0.78 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.62 | |
| Current owner tenure (years) | 25.00 | +0.57 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.85 | -0.56 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.42 | |
| Ownership changes, last 5 years | 0.00 | +0.20 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | -0.17 |
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Distress radar — 12-month termination probability
full board →p(termination, 12m)
0.1%
model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29
Percentile among SNFs
57.2
100 = most likely to lose certification
Holdout AUC
0.971
top decile caught 95% of actual exits
| Driver | Value | Pull on odds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| For-profit ownership | 0.00 | +1.62 | |
| Deficiencies, last 12 months | 0.00 | +1.43 | |
| Total nurse staffing (HPRD) | 5.85 | -1.11 | |
| Occupancy | 0.97 | -0.92 | |
| Staffing trend, last 4 quarters | -1.21 | -0.59 | |
| No PBJ staffing report | 0.00 | +0.39 | |
| Fine amount, 12m (log) | 0.00 | +0.18 | |
| Never sold on record | 1.00 | +0.12 |
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
7| 2025Q4 HPRD | This facility | FL median | National median | National p25–p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total nurse | 5.85 | 3.42 | 3.28 | 2.90–3.77 |
| RN | 0.84 | 0.45 | 0.39 | 0.25–0.58 |
| Weekend total | 5.18 | 3.31 | 3.11 | — |
| Weekday total | 6.11 | 3.48 | 3.35 | — |
| Quarter | Days | Avg census | Total HPRD | RN | LPN | CNA | Weekend | Contract % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q4 | 92 | 116.0 | 5.85 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 4.15 | 5.18 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q3 | 92 | 115.8 | 5.46 | 0.64 | 0.80 | 4.02 | 5.13 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q2 | 91 | 108.5 | 6.02 | 0.73 | 0.83 | 4.45 | 5.29 | 0.0% |
| 2025Q1 | 90 | 95.8 | 6.65 | 0.95 | 0.87 | 4.83 | 5.79 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q4 | 92 | 81.7 | 7.06 | 1.08 | 0.88 | 5.11 | 6.09 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q3 | 92 | 73.9 | 6.86 | 1.07 | 0.77 | 5.01 | 5.80 | 0.0% |
| 2024Q1 | 91 | 55.4 | 6.76 | 1.13 | 0.76 | 4.87 | 5.49 | 0.0% |
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
14D × 14
deficiencies by survey year
| Survey | Type | Tag | Deficiency | Scope | Corrected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-19 | Health | F0552 | Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments. | D | 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-06-19 | Health | F0605 | Prevent the use of unnecessary psychotropic medications or use medications that may restrain a resident's ability to function. | D | 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-06-19 | Health | F0676 | Ensure residents do not lose the ability to perform activities of daily living unless there is a medical reason. | D | 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-06-19 | Health | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-06-19 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-06-19 | Health | F0756 | Ensure a licensed pharmacist perform a monthly drug regimen review, including the medical chart, following irregularity reporting guidelines in developed policies and procedures. | D | 2025-07-29 |
| 2025-03-12 | Health · complaint | F0684 | Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals. | D | 2025-04-12 |
| 2025-03-12 | Health · complaint | F0755 | Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist. | D | 2025-04-12 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0582 | Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered. | D | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0641 | Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment. | D | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0695 | Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed. | D | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0761 | Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs. | D | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0775 | Keep complete, dated laboratory records in the resident's record. | D | 2024-04-14 |
| 2024-03-14 | Health | F0880 | Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program. | D | 2024-04-14 |
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
13| Owner | Role | Pct | From | Status | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DICKERSON, VICKI | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FADEL, AHMAD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-06-30 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FADEL, AHMAD | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| MALLARD, LINDSAY | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-10-16 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROGERS, DONNA | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-02 | current | pecos_ownership |
| ROGERS, DONNA | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | — | 2021-10-01 | current | pecos_ownership |
| FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS | 5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST | 100% | 2022-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DONNA ROGERS | CORPORATE DIRECTOR | 0% | 2021-10-01 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AHMAD FADEL | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| AHMAD FADEL | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| DONNA ROGERS | ADP OF THE SNF | — | 2025-04-02 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| LINDSAY MALLARD | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2016-10-16 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
| VICKI DICKERSON | OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL | — | 2023-06-30 | ended 2026-05-18 | pecos_ownership |
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Transactions
0No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Comparable trades — FL snf
12| Close | Facility | Price | $/bed | Cap rate | Beds | Buyer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-01 | MARIANNA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 180 | MARIANNA REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC |
| 2024-11-20 | SOLARIS HEALTHCARE LELY PALMS | — | — | — | 117 | LP SNF OPERATIONS LLC |
| 2024-11-01 | GULF COAST MEDICAL CENTER SKILLED NURSING UNIT | — | — | — | 75 | LEE HEALTH SYSTEM INC |
| 2024-09-19 | ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA | — | — | — | 118 | ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA OPCO LLC |
| 2024-08-01 | PENINSULA HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW | — | — | — | 120 | PENINSULA CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | BAYONET POINT HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW | — | — | — | 120 | LIVING CENTER OF BAYONET POINT BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | KISSIMMEE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | KISSIMMEE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | HARBORVIEW HEALTH CENTER WEST ALTAMONTE | — | — | — | 116 | WEST ALTAMONTE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | HARBORVIEW SARASOTA | — | — | — | 81 | SARASOTA CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-15 | NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE | — | — | — | 167 | NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE BY HARBORVIEW LLC |
| 2024-07-09 | WATERS EDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION | — | — | — | 36 | SANDHILL COVE LLC |
| 2024-07-01 | RIVERWOOD HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER | — | — | — | 120 | RIVERWOOD NURSING SNF LLC |
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33| Geo | Kind | BR | Amount | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| county 12111 | acs median gross | 0 | $1,263 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12111 | fmr | 0 | $1,455 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12111 | acs median gross | 1 | $1,182 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12111 | fmr | 1 | $1,467 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12111 | acs median gross | 2 | $1,479 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12111 | fmr | 2 | $1,757 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12111 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,838 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12111 | fmr | 3 | $2,421 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12111 | acs median gross | 4 | $2,070 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12111 | fmr | 4 | $2,579 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_FMR |
| county 12111 | acs median gross | 5 | $1,855 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| county 12111 | acs median gross | $1,585 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| county 12111 | acs recent mover gross | $2,077 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 34987 | acs median gross | 1 | $2,203 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 34987 | acs median gross | 2 | $2,157 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 34987 | acs median gross | 3 | $1,855 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 |
| zcta 34987 | acs median gross | $2,095 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zcta 34987 | acs recent mover gross | $2,262 | 2024-12-31 | CENSUS_ACS5 | |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 110 | 0 | $2,277 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 90 | 0 | $1,863 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | safmr | 0 | $2,070 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 110 | 1 | $2,299 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 90 | 1 | $1,881 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | safmr | 1 | $2,090 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 110 | 2 | $2,750 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 90 | 2 | $2,250 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | safmr | 2 | $2,500 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 110 | 3 | $3,784 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 90 | 3 | $3,096 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | safmr | 3 | $3,440 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 110 | 4 | $4,037 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | payment standard 90 | 4 | $3,303 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
| zip 34987 | safmr | 4 | $3,670 | 2025-10-01 | HUD_USER_SAFMR |
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.