Reads as: riskier than 55.4% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
ASTON HEALTHCARE LLC
26 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
WILDES DONNA
18 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.32
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.36
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.20
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.36
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
129.7
3.32
0.36
0.80
2.16
3.20
0.0%
2025Q3
92
131.5
3.27
0.42
0.72
2.12
3.13
0.0%
2025Q2
91
130.1
3.25
0.42
0.71
2.12
3.13
0.0%
2025Q1
90
150.3
3.36
0.48
0.73
2.14
3.24
0.4%
2024Q4
92
152.1
3.26
0.45
0.71
2.11
3.19
0.2%
2024Q3
92
148.6
3.26
0.41
0.76
2.09
3.20
9.3%
2024Q2
91
145.5
3.20
0.35
0.80
2.05
3.08
10.2%
2024Q1
91
154.2
3.22
0.36
0.77
2.08
3.11
8.0%
2023Q4
92
141.0
3.21
0.38
0.73
2.10
3.16
8.1%
2023Q3
92
143.8
3.11
0.33
0.74
2.04
3.11
11.5%
2023Q2
91
146.5
3.19
0.37
0.67
2.16
3.17
3.0%
2023Q1
90
153.0
3.20
0.38
0.62
2.21
3.21
0.0%
2022Q4
92
147.3
3.39
0.36
0.65
2.38
3.36
0.0%
2022Q3
92
147.2
3.36
0.32
0.72
2.32
3.37
0.7%
2022Q2
91
147.2
3.28
0.32
0.71
2.24
3.32
0.5%
2022Q1
90
147.9
3.48
0.29
0.77
2.42
3.49
5.1%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
18
D × 10E × 6F × 2
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-05
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
D
2026-03-06
2026-02-05
Health · complaint
F0603
Protect each resident from separation (from other residents, his/her room, or confinement to his/her room).
D
2026-03-06
2025-08-19
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2025-09-18
2025-02-20
Health · complaint
F0552
Ensure that residents are fully informed and understand their health status, care and treatments.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health · complaint
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2025-03-20
2025-02-20
Health
F0887
Educate residents and staff on COVID-19 vaccination, offer the COVID-19 vaccine to eligible residents and staff after education, and properly document each resident and staff member's vaccination status.
E
2025-03-20
2024-09-18
Health · complaint
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2024-10-18
2022-08-11
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2022-09-11
2022-08-11
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2022-09-11
2022-08-11
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-09-11
2022-08-11
Health
F0882
Designate a qualified infection preventionist to be responsible for the infection prevent and control program in the nursing home.
D
2022-09-11
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
17
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CREEKSIDE REHAB HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
BP CREEKSIDE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
LF CREEKSIDE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
ASTON HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
BUTLER, DAVID
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-10-29
current
pecos_ownership
FRIEDMAN, LEOPOLD
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-16
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSON, SUSAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARDS, JOHN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
RICHARDS, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-29
current
pecos_ownership
WILDER, LORI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-05
current
pecos_ownership
WILDES, DONNA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-08-28
current
pecos_ownership
DAVID BUTLER
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA WILDES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-08-28
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN RICHARDS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN RICHARDS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-10-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LORI WILDER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN JOHNSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-05-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
3
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2023-05-04
$581,854
—
$581,854
—
—
2
—
2022-05-31
$575,984
—
$575,984
—
—
2
—
2021-05-31
$626,966
—
$626,966
—
—
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12115
acs median gross
0
$1,579
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
0
$1,418
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
1
$1,628
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
1
$1,686
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
2
$1,789
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
2
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
3
$2,074
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
3
$2,537
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
4
$2,216
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
fmr
4
$3,027
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12115
acs median gross
5
$2,963
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
acs median gross
$1,818
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12115
acs recent mover gross
$2,167
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
0
$1,331
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
1
$1,642
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
2
$1,834
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
3
$2,043
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
4
$2,194
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs median gross
$1,821
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34231
acs recent mover gross
$2,141
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 34231
payment standard 110
0
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
0
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
0
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 110
1
$1,936
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
1
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
1
$1,760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 110
2
$2,255
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
2
$1,845
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
2
$2,050
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 110
3
$2,926
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
3
$2,394
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
3
$2,660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 110
4
$3,487
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
payment standard 90
4
$2,853
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34231
safmr
4
$3,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.