Screener / 105295

FORT WALTON REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC

snfFL

1 LBJ SR DRIVE, FORT WALTON BEACH, FL 32547 · CCN 105295 · chain SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC

Composite

12.0 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

120

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 12.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model5 ML signals2 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties0 Deficiencies5 Licensure0 Ownership39 Related party5 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent35

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
billing conduct	75.7	50.5	0.30	0.2308	17.47	in index
staffing risk	42.1	42.2	0.25	0.1923	8.10	in index
financial risk	15.8	24.1	0.30	0.2308	3.65	in index
chow risk	12.5	17.6	0.15	0.1154	1.44	in index
regulatory risk	1.5	1.0	0.30	0.2308	0.35	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

ML signals — parallel engine

Kind	Finding	Signal	Subject	First seen
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	47 chains	FORVIS MAZARS LLP	251 facilities
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	9 chains	ORIX REAL ESTATE CAPITAL LLC	17 facilities

Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	50.5	C	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	24.2	A	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	11.1	A	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	24.1	A	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
p adverse action 12m	0.0	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	3.2	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	1.0	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	42.2	B	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	61.7	C	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	41.7	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	37.2	B	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	30.1	B	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	1.0	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	1.0	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	42.2	B	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	42.2	B	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

3.2%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

79.0

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	1.00	+0.69
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
Occupancy	0.88	-0.52
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Chain size (log)	3.78	+0.40
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	-0.17

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.0%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

33.6

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Deficiencies, last 12 months	0.00	+1.43
Chain size (log)	3.78	-1.00
For-profit ownership	1.00	-0.69
Occupancy	0.88	-0.55
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.12
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.11

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	FL median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	3.42	3.42	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.63	0.45	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	3.28	3.31	3.11	—
Weekday total	3.47	3.48	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	105.4	3.42	0.63	0.69	2.09	3.28	0.0%
2025Q3	92	107.8	3.42	0.55	0.76	2.11	3.13	0.0%
2025Q2	91	106.5	3.42	0.51	0.76	2.15	3.15	0.0%
2025Q1	90	108.2	3.41	0.60	0.67	2.14	3.18	0.0%
2024Q4	92	108.0	3.37	0.56	0.65	2.16	3.16	0.0%
2024Q3	92	109.6	3.22	0.57	0.62	2.03	3.05	0.0%
2024Q2	91	107.1	3.32	0.62	0.64	2.06	3.09	0.0%
2024Q1	91	103.7	3.42	0.60	0.74	2.08	3.18	0.0%
2023Q4	92	105.9	3.35	0.49	0.78	2.08	3.15	0.0%
2023Q3	92	103.2	3.40	0.47	0.83	2.09	3.15	0.0%
2023Q2	91	107.2	3.43	0.36	0.92	2.16	3.25	0.0%
2023Q1	90	104.9	3.53	0.38	0.94	2.22	3.31	0.0%
2022Q4	92	112.3	3.45	0.37	0.90	2.18	3.25	0.0%
2022Q3	92	111.9	3.28	0.23	0.90	2.16	3.17	0.0%
2022Q2	91	109.8	3.09	0.28	0.84	1.97	2.99	0.0%
2022Q1	90	104.2	3.19	0.36	0.75	2.07	2.99	0.0%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

D × 5

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2025-06-26	Health	F0584	Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.	D	2025-08-12
2025-06-26	Health	F0755	Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.	D	2025-08-12
2023-01-25	Health	F0641	Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.	D	2023-02-17
2023-01-25	Health	F0644	Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.	D	2023-02-17
2023-01-25	Health	F0880	Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.	D	2023-02-17

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
PANHANDLE NURSI	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2023-01-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
PANHANDLE NURSING CARE INC.	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2024-01-01	current	hcris_a_8_1
BROWN, FATE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2017-05-01	current	pecos_ownership
CHERY, DAWN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2017-06-08	current	pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST 2015 FAMILY TR	INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	2015-12-31	current	pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST, ROYCE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2018-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
DONCHEY, STEVEN	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2025-12-31	current	pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
HODGE, ASHLEY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2020-09-18	current	pecos_ownership
HSP PANHANDLE, LLC	5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST	—	2013-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
JOHN J NOTERMANN BUSINESS TR	INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	2017-11-12	current	pecos_ownership
KAAR, SUSAN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2013-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
KELLY, MICHELLE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2018-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
MANGINE, JOHN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2012-06-25	current	pecos_ownership
MELTON, DONALD	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2009-02-15	current	pecos_ownership
NOTERMANN, BRENDA	INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-12-03	current	pecos_ownership
NOTERMANN, WILLIAM	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
ORIX REAL ESTATE CAPITAL LLC	5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST	—	2025-01-01	current	pecos_ownership
PANHANDLE NURSING CARE, INC.	5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST	—	2013-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
PH-JN, LLC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2013-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
PH-MC, LLC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2013-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2013-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-12-03	current	pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE DISBURSEMENTS LLC	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2013-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC	DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	—	2012-02-01	current	pecos_ownership
WDW TRUST	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2013-06-01	current	pecos_ownership
PANHANDLE NURSI	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2020-01-01	ended 2020-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
PANHANDLE NURSI	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2022-01-01	ended 2022-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
PANHANDLE NURSI	Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider	100%	2021-01-01	ended 2021-12-31	hcris_a_8_1
JOHN MANGINE	INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	3%	2012-06-25	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ASHLEY HODGE	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2020-09-18	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
DAWN CHERY	MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY	—	2017-06-08	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
DONALD MELTON	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2009-02-15	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
FATE BROWN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2017-05-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
MICHELLE KELLY	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2018-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
ROYCE CRONQUIST	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2018-02-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
STEVEN DONCHEY	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2025-12-31	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SUSAN KAAR	MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY	—	2013-06-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
WILLIAM NOTERMANN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-01-01	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2024-12-31	$975,377	$494,513	$480,864	—	—	8	propco
2023-12-31	$980,837	$528,784	$452,053	—	—	8	propco
2022-12-31	$943,710	$534,689	$409,021	—	—	8	propco
2021-12-31	$982,722	$574,679	$408,043	—	—	8	propco
2020-12-31	$981,021	$594,133	$386,888	—	—	8	propco

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — FL snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-02-01	MARIANNA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	—	—	—	180	MARIANNA REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC
2024-11-20	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE LELY PALMS	—	—	—	117	LP SNF OPERATIONS LLC
2024-11-01	GULF COAST MEDICAL CENTER SKILLED NURSING UNIT	—	—	—	75	LEE HEALTH SYSTEM INC
2024-09-19	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA	—	—	—	118	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA OPCO LLC
2024-08-01	PENINSULA HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW	—	—	—	120	PENINSULA CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	BAYONET POINT HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW	—	—	—	120	LIVING CENTER OF BAYONET POINT BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	KISSIMMEE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	120	KISSIMMEE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	HARBORVIEW HEALTH CENTER WEST ALTAMONTE	—	—	—	116	WEST ALTAMONTE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	HARBORVIEW SARASOTA	—	—	—	81	SARASOTA CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE	—	—	—	167	NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-09	WATERS EDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	—	—	—	36	SANDHILL COVE LLC
2024-07-01	RIVERWOOD HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	120	RIVERWOOD NURSING SNF LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 12091	acs median gross	0	$1,094	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12091	fmr	0	$1,362	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12091	acs median gross	1	$1,298	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12091	fmr	1	$1,581	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12091	acs median gross	2	$1,460	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12091	fmr	2	$1,785	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12091	acs median gross	3	$1,823	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12091	fmr	3	$2,448	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12091	acs median gross	4	$2,275	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12091	fmr	4	$2,979	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12091	acs median gross	5	$1,589	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12091	acs median gross		$1,612	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12091	acs recent mover gross		$2,094	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32547	acs median gross	0	$1,028	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32547	acs median gross	1	$1,437	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32547	acs median gross	2	$1,458	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32547	acs median gross	3	$1,855	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32547	acs median gross	4	$2,481	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32547	acs median gross		$1,611	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32547	acs recent mover gross		$1,962	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32547	payment standard 110	0	$1,419	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	payment standard 90	0	$1,161	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	safmr	0	$1,290	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	payment standard 110	1	$1,650	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	payment standard 90	1	$1,350	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	safmr	1	$1,500	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	payment standard 110	2	$1,859	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	payment standard 90	2	$1,521	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	safmr	2	$1,690	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	payment standard 110	3	$2,552	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	payment standard 90	3	$2,088	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	safmr	3	$2,320	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	payment standard 110	4	$3,102	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	payment standard 90	4	$2,538	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32547	safmr	4	$2,820	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.