Screener / 106135

DOLPHIN POINTE HEALTH CARE CENTER

snfFL

5355 DOLPHIN POINT BLVD, JACKSONVILLE, FL 32211 · CCN 106135

Composite

37.9 / 100 percentile

Peer group

snf n = 14,684

Evidence depth

deep

Certified beds

146

Model

v1.2

Reads as: riskier than 37.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.

Score model6 ML signals1 Components16 CHOW radar1 Distress radar1 Staffing16 Penalties0 Deficiencies19 Licensure0 Ownership17 Related party4 Transactions0 Comps12 Market rent35

Composite explanation

Component	Percentile	Raw	Weight	Weight share	Contribution	Counts
billing conduct	82.1	54.2	0.30	0.2069	16.99	in index
lease risk	61.0	55.8	0.15	0.1034	6.31	in index
regulatory risk	29.5	20.1	0.30	0.2069	6.10	in index
financial risk	28.2	32.8	0.30	0.2069	5.83	in index
chow risk	43.9	18.3	0.15	0.1034	4.54	in index
staffing risk	24.3	24.4	0.25	0.1724	4.19	in index

weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.

ML signals — parallel engine

Kind	Finding	Signal	Subject	First seen
connection	Owner spans multiple chains	5 chains	FIFTH THIRD BANK	15 facilities

Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.

Component scores and registry models

Score type	Score	Grade	Model	Status	Registry model notes
billing conduct	54.2	C	v0.1-pacpuf-snf	default · in composite	R22. PAC PUF SNF 2023. PDPM coding intensity vs acuity, stay length, charge markup.
chow risk	30.8	B	v0.1-pos	default · in composite	Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
chow risk	5.8	A	v0.6	default · in composite
financial risk	32.8	B	v0.5	default · in composite	R18.
lease risk	55.8	C	v0.5	default · in composite
p adverse action 12m	0.1	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
p chow 12m	1.4	—	v0.1	default · in composite	R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
regulatory risk	20.1	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Deficiency-based, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.5-pos.
staffing risk	24.4	A	v0.3	default · in composite	Cost-report staffing, SNF population. Runs alongside v0.4-pos, which covers ICF/IID from POS.
financial risk	50.6	C	v0.3	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
financial risk	36.9	B	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
lease risk	60.0	C	v0.4	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	20.0	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
regulatory risk	20.0	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	24.4	A	v0.1	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
staffing risk	24.4	A	v0.2	superseded	Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.

Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.

CHOW radar — 12-month sale probability

full board →

p(CHOW, 12m)

1.4%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

63.5

100 = most likely to sell

Holdout AUC

0.874

evaluated before shipping, never refit

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
For-profit ownership	1.00	+0.69
Never sold on record	1.00	+0.62
Occupancy	0.91	-0.60
Current owner tenure (years)	25.00	+0.57
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.42
Chain size (log)	0.00	-0.40
Ownership changes, last 5 years	0.00	+0.20
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	3.79	-0.15

p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.

Distress radar — 12-month termination probability

full board →

p(termination, 12m)

0.1%

model v0.1 · computed 2026-07-29

Percentile among SNFs

52.1

100 = most likely to lose certification

Holdout AUC

0.971

top decile caught 95% of actual exits

Driver	Value	Pull on odds
Chain size (log)	0.00	+1.20
For-profit ownership	1.00	-0.69
Occupancy	0.91	-0.66
Deficiencies, last 12 months	5.00	+0.50
No PBJ staffing report	0.00	+0.39
Total nurse staffing (HPRD)	3.79	-0.24
Fine amount, 12m (log)	0.00	+0.18
Facility size (log beds)	4.99	-0.13

Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.

Staffing vs peers

2025Q4 HPRD	This facility	FL median	National median	National p25–p75
Total nurse	3.79	3.42	3.28	2.90–3.77
RN	0.35	0.45	0.39	0.25–0.58
Weekend total	3.67	3.31	3.11	—
Weekday total	3.84	3.48	3.35	—

Quarter	Days	Avg census	Total HPRD	RN	LPN	CNA	Weekend	Contract %
2025Q4	92	132.3	3.79	0.35	0.86	2.59	3.67	0.5%
2025Q3	92	139.9	3.71	0.24	0.84	2.62	3.71	2.9%
2025Q2	91	140.8	3.73	0.25	0.90	2.57	3.58	13.6%
2025Q1	90	139.0	3.60	0.26	0.86	2.48	3.31	7.9%
2024Q4	92	139.2	3.53	0.24	0.84	2.44	3.44	10.6%
2024Q3	92	140.2	3.41	0.26	0.90	2.25	3.40	13.7%
2024Q2	91	137.1	3.58	0.28	0.91	2.39	3.30	14.3%
2024Q1	91	139.0	3.51	0.32	0.81	2.38	3.23	8.7%
2023Q4	92	133.9	3.56	0.27	0.91	2.38	3.51	7.1%
2023Q3	92	138.5	3.49	0.24	0.99	2.26	3.38	3.4%
2023Q2	91	135.4	3.71	0.45	0.91	2.34	3.57	9.4%
2023Q1	90	132.3	3.69	0.36	1.01	2.32	3.51	1.6%
2022Q4	92	139.6	3.52	0.28	1.06	2.19	3.40	0.5%
2022Q3	92	140.1	3.67	0.26	1.08	2.33	3.56	6.8%
2022Q2	91	133.3	3.81	0.23	1.16	2.42	3.71	35.0%
2022Q1	90	128.2	4.59	0.23	1.57	2.79	4.27	51.2%

HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.

Penalties

No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Deficiencies

D × 14E × 1F × 4

deficiencies by survey year

Survey	Type	Tag	Deficiency	Scope	Corrected
2026-01-30	Health	F0554	Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.	D	2026-03-13
2026-01-30	Health	F0607	Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.	D	2026-03-13
2026-01-30	Health	F0677	Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.	E	2026-03-13
2026-01-30	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	F	2026-03-13
2026-01-30	Health	F0842	Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.	D	2026-03-13
2024-02-15	Health	F0585	Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.	D	2024-03-15
2024-02-15	Health	F0644	Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.	D	2024-03-15
2024-02-15	Health	F0684	Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.	D	2024-03-15
2024-02-15	Health	F0686	Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.	D	2024-03-15
2024-02-15	Health	F0695	Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.	D	2024-03-15
2024-02-15	Health	F0759	Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.	D	2024-03-15
2024-02-15	Health	F0761	Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.	D	2024-03-15
2024-02-15	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	F	2024-03-15
2024-02-15	Health	F0842	Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.	D	2024-03-15
2022-03-24	Health	F0684	Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.	D	2022-05-03
2022-03-24	Health	F0758	Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.	D	2022-05-03
2022-03-24	Health	F0812	Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.	F	2022-05-03
2022-03-24	Health	F0838	Conduct and document a facility-wide assessment to determine what resources are necessary to care for residents competently during both day-to-day operations (including nights and weekends) and emergencies.	F	2022-05-03
2022-03-24	Health	F0842	Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.	D	2022-05-03

scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.

Licensure actions

No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Ownership

Owner	Role	Pct	From	Status	Source
OLT II, INC	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	40%	2016-07-15	current	pecos_ownership
CLEVELAND, JEFFREY	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	20%	2016-07-15	current	pecos_ownership
DOLPHIN POINTE MEDICAL INVESTORS, LLC I	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	20%	2016-07-15	current	pecos_ownership
DOLPHIN POINTE MEDICAL INVESTORS, LLC II	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	20%	2016-07-15	current	pecos_ownership
DOLPHIN POINTE MEDICAL INVESTORS, LLC III	5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	20%	2016-07-15	current	pecos_ownership
FRASER, GEOFFREY	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	20%	2016-07-15	current	pecos_ownership
NELSON, SEAN	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	20%	2016-07-15	current	pecos_ownership
FIFTH THIRD BANK	5% OR GREATER MORTGAGE INTEREST	—	2017-02-24	current	pecos_ownership
FRASER, GEOFFREY	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	—	2016-07-16	current	pecos_ownership
KALLEN, JASON	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-12-04	current	pecos_ownership
NELSON, DENISE	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	—	2016-07-15	current	pecos_ownership
DENISE NELSON	CORPORATE OFFICER	40%	2016-07-15	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
GEOFFREY FRASER	OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL	20%	2016-07-16	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
GEOFFREY FRASER	CORPORATE DIRECTOR	20%	2016-07-15	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JEFFREY CLEVELAND	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	20%	2016-07-15	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
SEAN NELSON	5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST	20%	2016-07-15	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership
JASON KALLEN	ADP OF THE SNF	—	2025-12-04	ended 2026-05-18	pecos_ownership

PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.

Related-party costs

FY end	Total allowable	Rent	Home office	Therapy	Staffing	Counterparties	PropCo
2023-12-31	$174,500	—	—	$177	$100	9	—
2022-12-31	$123,103	—	—	—	$4,850	8	—
2021-12-31	$60,894	—	—	$1,777	$40	9	—
2020-12-31	$104,972	—	—	$7,657	$45,982	9	—

Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.

Transactions

No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.

Comparable trades — FL snf

Close	Facility	Price	$/bed	Cap rate	Beds	Buyer
2025-02-01	MARIANNA HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	—	—	—	180	MARIANNA REHABILITATION CENTER, LLC
2024-11-20	SOLARIS HEALTHCARE LELY PALMS	—	—	—	117	LP SNF OPERATIONS LLC
2024-11-01	GULF COAST MEDICAL CENTER SKILLED NURSING UNIT	—	—	—	75	LEE HEALTH SYSTEM INC
2024-09-19	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA	—	—	—	118	ARABELLA HEALTH & WELLNESS OF PENSACOLA OPCO LLC
2024-08-01	PENINSULA HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW	—	—	—	120	PENINSULA CARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	BAYONET POINT HEALTH CENTER BY HARBORVIEW	—	—	—	120	LIVING CENTER OF BAYONET POINT BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	KISSIMMEE NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	120	KISSIMMEE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	HARBORVIEW HEALTH CENTER WEST ALTAMONTE	—	—	—	116	WEST ALTAMONTE NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	HARBORVIEW SARASOTA	—	—	—	81	SARASOTA CENTER FOR NURSING AND REHABILITATION BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-15	NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE	—	—	—	167	NURSING AND REHABILITATION CENTER OF MELBOURNE BY HARBORVIEW LLC
2024-07-09	WATERS EDGE HEALTH AND REHABILITATION	—	—	—	36	SANDHILL COVE LLC
2024-07-01	RIVERWOOD HEALTHCARE & REHABILITATION CENTER	—	—	—	120	RIVERWOOD NURSING SNF LLC

Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.

Market rent context

Geo	Kind	BR	Amount	As of	Source
county 12031	acs median gross	0	$1,218	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12031	fmr	0	$1,355	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12031	acs median gross	1	$1,245	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12031	fmr	1	$1,382	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12031	acs median gross	2	$1,508	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12031	fmr	2	$1,658	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12031	acs median gross	3	$1,665	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12031	fmr	3	$2,043	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12031	acs median gross	4	$1,935	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12031	fmr	4	$2,561	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_FMR
county 12031	acs median gross	5	$1,899	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12031	acs median gross		$1,475	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
county 12031	acs recent mover gross		$1,642	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32211	acs median gross	0	$1,136	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32211	acs median gross	1	$963	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32211	acs median gross	2	$1,202	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32211	acs median gross	3	$1,353	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32211	acs median gross	4	$2,029	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32211	acs median gross		$1,185	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32211	acs recent mover gross		$1,397	2024-12-31	CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32211	payment standard 110	0	$1,221	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	payment standard 90	0	$999	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	safmr	0	$1,110	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	payment standard 110	1	$1,243	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	payment standard 90	1	$1,017	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	safmr	1	$1,130	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	payment standard 110	2	$1,496	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	payment standard 90	2	$1,224	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	safmr	2	$1,360	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	payment standard 110	3	$1,848	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	payment standard 90	3	$1,512	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	safmr	3	$1,680	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	payment standard 110	4	$2,310	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	payment standard 90	4	$1,890	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32211	safmr	4	$2,100	2025-10-01	HUD_USER_SAFMR

ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.