Reads as: riskier than 8.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
9 chains
ASTON HEALTHCARE LLC
26 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
GUTMAN SAMUEL
11 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later lease_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.27
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.50
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.11
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.34
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
103.9
3.27
0.50
0.69
2.09
3.11
0.0%
2025Q3
92
103.9
3.09
0.45
0.63
2.01
3.06
0.0%
2025Q2
91
108.0
3.13
0.33
0.82
1.98
3.11
0.0%
2025Q1
90
110.2
3.27
0.42
0.80
2.05
3.15
1.5%
2024Q4
92
111.5
3.33
0.53
0.69
2.11
3.17
0.4%
2024Q3
92
106.1
3.46
0.48
0.84
2.14
3.32
1.3%
2024Q2
91
107.9
3.35
0.34
0.93
2.07
3.26
7.6%
2024Q1
91
109.7
3.46
0.46
0.76
2.23
3.29
5.3%
2023Q4
92
111.6
3.41
0.40
0.77
2.23
3.20
4.3%
2023Q3
92
113.1
3.24
0.27
0.80
2.17
3.20
3.3%
2023Q2
91
111.2
3.18
0.26
0.79
2.12
3.13
15.0%
2023Q1
90
113.1
3.22
0.28
0.77
2.17
3.16
12.7%
2022Q4
92
111.5
3.30
0.29
0.77
2.24
3.18
12.9%
2022Q3
92
112.0
3.26
0.37
0.69
2.20
3.27
17.9%
2022Q2
91
108.4
3.31
0.54
0.50
2.26
3.33
28.7%
2022Q1
90
106.8
3.55
0.53
0.47
2.54
3.57
24.5%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
33
D × 29E × 4
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-02-21
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2026-03-21
2026-02-21
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-03-21
2026-02-21
Health · complaint
F0840
Employ or obtain outside professional resources to provide services in the nursing home when the facility does not employ a qualified professional to furnish a required service.
D
2026-03-21
2026-02-21
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2026-03-21
2025-11-20
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2025-12-20
2025-11-20
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2025-12-20
2025-11-20
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-12-20
2024-09-11
Health
F0558
Reasonably accommodate the needs and preferences of each resident.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0583
Keep residents' personal and medical records private and confidential.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
E
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health · complaint
F0607
Develop and implement policies and procedures to prevent abuse, neglect, and theft.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health · complaint
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0699
Provide care or services that was trauma informed and/or culturally competent.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-10-11
2024-09-11
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-10-11
2022-09-01
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
D
2022-09-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-09-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2022-09-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2022-09-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2022-09-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2022-09-30
2022-09-01
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2022-09-30
2021-04-15
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2021-05-15
2021-04-15
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2021-05-15
2021-04-15
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2021-05-15
2021-04-15
Health
F0700
Try different approaches before using a bed rail. If a bed rail is needed, the facility must (1) assess a resident for safety risk; (2) review these risks and benefits with the resident/representative; (3) get informed consent; and (4) Correctly install and maintain the bed rail.
D
2021-05-15
2021-04-15
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2021-05-15
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
23
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FAIRWAY OAKS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
33%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
AGBANEJE STERLIN, EMMANUEL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-05
current
pecos_ownership
ASTON HEALTHCARE LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRWAY OAKS HOLDCO LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
FAIRWAY OAKS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FAIRWAY OAKS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2022-10-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
FRIEDMAN, LEOPOLD
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-12-15
current
pecos_ownership
GUERRERO CUETO, RAMON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
GUTMAN, SAMUEL
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARRIS, TOMIKA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-18
current
pecos_ownership
LCE PARTNERS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2021-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
LEGENDARY, ZECHARIAH
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-19
current
pecos_ownership
LEGENDARY, ZECHARIAH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
THACKER, TRICIA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-04
current
pecos_ownership
LEOPOLD FRIEDMAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
80%
2023-12-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SAMUEL GUTMAN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2021-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
EMMANUEL AGBANEJE STERLIN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-03-05
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FAIRWAY OAKS PROPERTY HOLDINGS LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
—
2021-10-01
ended 2022-09-30
hcris_a_8_1
RAMON GUERRERO CUETO
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TOMIKA HARRIS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-02-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRICIA THACKER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-04-04
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZECHARIAH LEGENDARY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-11-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ZECHARIAH LEGENDARY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,695,433
$1,695,433
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$735,010
$735,010
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-09-30
$2,011,145
$2,011,145
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-09-30
$933,256
$933,256
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-09-30
$432,146
$284,656
—
$147,490
—
0
propco
2020-09-30
$430,727
—
—
$383,402
$47,325
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12057
acs median gross
0
$1,424
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12057
fmr
0
$1,593
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12057
acs median gross
1
$1,408
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12057
fmr
1
$1,696
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12057
acs median gross
2
$1,671
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12057
fmr
2
$1,977
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12057
acs median gross
3
$1,895
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12057
fmr
3
$2,527
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12057
acs median gross
4
$2,257
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12057
fmr
4
$3,077
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12057
acs median gross
5
$2,604
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12057
acs median gross
$1,667
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12057
acs recent mover gross
$1,939
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33613
acs median gross
0
$930
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33613
acs median gross
1
$1,261
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33613
acs median gross
2
$1,419
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33613
acs median gross
3
$1,429
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33613
acs median gross
4
$947
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33613
acs median gross
5
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33613
acs median gross
$1,298
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33613
acs recent mover gross
$1,490
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 33613
payment standard 110
0
$1,584
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
payment standard 90
0
$1,296
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
safmr
0
$1,440
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
payment standard 110
1
$1,694
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
payment standard 90
1
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
safmr
1
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
payment standard 110
2
$1,969
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
payment standard 90
2
$1,611
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
safmr
2
$1,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
payment standard 110
3
$2,519
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
payment standard 90
3
$2,061
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
safmr
3
$2,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
payment standard 110
4
$3,069
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
payment standard 90
4
$2,511
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33613
safmr
4
$2,790
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.