Reads as: riskier than 22.0% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
4 chains
ESTES TIMOTHY
15 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
MS median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.62
3.68
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.26
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.22
3.30
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.77
3.82
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
53.9
3.62
0.26
1.02
2.34
3.22
0.0%
2025Q3
92
53.1
3.67
0.26
1.09
2.32
3.24
0.0%
2025Q2
91
53.6
3.81
0.36
1.00
2.45
3.18
0.0%
2025Q1
90
55.6
3.64
0.35
0.98
2.31
3.14
0.0%
2024Q4
92
57.3
3.45
0.34
0.90
2.21
2.96
0.1%
2024Q3
92
57.2
3.31
0.33
0.93
2.06
2.92
0.8%
2024Q2
91
55.7
3.65
0.21
1.01
2.43
3.18
25.1%
2024Q1
91
55.9
3.30
0.31
0.94
2.05
2.79
13.1%
2023Q4
92
49.2
3.59
0.38
1.02
2.19
2.98
10.3%
2023Q3
92
49.4
3.67
0.41
1.01
2.25
3.06
0.4%
2023Q2
91
50.8
3.42
0.43
0.93
2.06
2.79
0.1%
2023Q1
90
51.3
3.54
0.45
0.91
2.17
2.93
4.8%
2022Q4
92
53.8
3.32
0.38
0.88
2.06
2.69
10.8%
2022Q3
92
47.1
3.33
0.42
0.98
1.93
2.68
6.3%
2022Q2
91
43.5
3.40
0.39
1.10
1.92
2.75
13.3%
2022Q1
90
44.7
3.49
0.37
1.08
2.04
2.80
17.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
16
D × 10E × 5F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-22
Health · complaint
F0690
Provide appropriate care for residents who are continent or incontinent of bowel/bladder, appropriate catheter care, and appropriate care to prevent urinary tract infections.
D
2026-05-25
2026-02-23
Health · complaint
F0725
Provide enough nursing staff every day to meet the needs of every resident; and have a licensed nurse in charge on each shift.
E
2026-03-28
2025-10-02
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-12-15
2025-10-02
Health · complaint
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-12-15
2025-10-02
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-12-15
2025-10-02
Health · complaint
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2025-12-15
2025-05-08
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
D
2025-05-30
2025-05-08
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2025-05-30
2025-05-08
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
F
2025-05-30
2023-11-02
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-12-13
2023-11-02
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2023-12-13
2023-11-02
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-12-13
2023-11-02
Health
F0865
Have a plan that describes the process for conducting QAPI and QAA activities.
E
2023-12-13
2021-02-11
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2021-03-11
2021-02-11
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
E
2021-03-11
2021-02-11
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2021-03-11
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
41
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
ELTON G BEEBE SR REVOCABLE TRUST
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
EXTENDED CARE ASSOCIATES, INC.
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
80%
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAY STREET PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2023-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
BAY STREET PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
WILLIAMS, HIBERNIA
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ACCOUNT MANAGEMENT SERVICES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
ADMINISTRATIVE SYSTEMS INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BAY STREET PROPERTIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEASLEY, KARI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-04-07
current
pecos_ownership
BEEBE, BOBBY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEEBE, BOBBY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEEBE, ELTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BEEBE, ELTON
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2025-07-15
current
pecos_ownership
BELTON, ANN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
DUCKWORTH, DOROTHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
ESTES, TIMOTHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-04-01
current
pecos_ownership
LINDA MAYNOR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2011-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
NUTRITION SYSTEMS CONSULTING INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2008-01-31
current
pecos_ownership
PARKINSON, TONI
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
PARKINSON, TONI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PHARMACEUTICAL CONSULTING SERVICES OF AMERICA LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-03-28
current
pecos_ownership
PROVIDER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REGIONAL CARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
REGIONAL SERVICES, INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
TRISTAR REHAB INC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
WILLIAMS, PAMELA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
current
pecos_ownership
ELTON BEEBE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2025-07-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BAY STREET PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2021-01-01
ended 2021-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BAY STREET PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
BAY STREET PROPERTIES LLC
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
25%
2022-01-01
ended 2022-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
HIBERNIA WILLIAMS
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
15%
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANN BELTON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBY BEEBE
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BOBBY BEEBE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DOROTHY DUCKWORTH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2022-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ELTON BEEBE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KARI BEASLEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2020-04-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PAMELA WILLIAMS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TIMOTHY ESTES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2021-04-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TONI PARKINSON
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2011-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TONI PARKINSON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2010-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$190,604
$18,000
—
—
$2,632
2
propco
2023-12-31
$85,708
$18,000
—
—
—
2
propco
2022-12-31
$173,281
$18,000
—
—
—
2
propco
2021-12-31
$90,633
$18,000
—
—
—
1
propco
2020-12-31
$74,935
—
—
—
—
1
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
28
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 28111
fmr
0
$766
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28111
acs median gross
1
$589
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28111
fmr
1
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28111
acs median gross
2
$566
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28111
fmr
2
$1,047
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28111
acs median gross
3
$1,078
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 28111
fmr
3
$1,348
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28111
fmr
4
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 28111
acs median gross
$755
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39476
acs median gross
1
$240
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39476
acs median gross
2
$597
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39476
acs median gross
3
$1,079
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 39476
acs median gross
$735
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 39476
payment standard 110
0
$847
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
payment standard 90
0
$693
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
safmr
0
$770
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
payment standard 110
1
$946
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
payment standard 90
1
$774
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
safmr
1
$860
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
payment standard 110
2
$1,133
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
payment standard 90
2
$927
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
safmr
2
$1,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
payment standard 110
3
$1,452
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
payment standard 90
3
$1,188
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
safmr
3
$1,320
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
payment standard 110
4
$1,507
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
payment standard 90
4
$1,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 39476
safmr
4
$1,370
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.