136 NORTHEAST 12TH AVENUE, CRYSTAL RIVER, FL 34429 · CCN 105317 · chain JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
Composite
39.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
150
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 39.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
REGIONS BANK
63 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
15
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.27
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.49
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.92
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.41
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
131.7
3.27
0.49
0.78
2.00
2.92
0.0%
2025Q3
92
133.1
3.31
0.45
0.75
2.11
3.00
0.0%
2025Q2
91
131.5
3.22
0.46
0.74
2.02
2.94
0.0%
2025Q1
90
127.2
2.80
0.35
0.82
1.62
2.51
0.0%
2024Q4
92
124.0
2.80
0.33
0.90
1.56
2.36
0.0%
2024Q3
92
121.3
2.98
0.36
0.94
1.68
2.75
0.0%
2024Q2
91
120.3
2.92
0.43
0.83
1.66
2.60
0.0%
2024Q1
91
125.3
2.94
0.48
0.74
1.72
2.60
0.0%
2023Q4
92
122.7
2.90
0.38
0.83
1.69
2.53
0.0%
2023Q3
92
122.1
2.72
0.32
0.91
1.49
2.33
0.0%
2023Q2
91
124.5
2.76
0.42
0.80
1.53
2.41
0.0%
2023Q1
90
128.1
2.68
0.40
0.81
1.47
2.38
0.0%
2022Q4
92
126.7
2.39
0.33
0.83
1.23
2.05
0.0%
2022Q3
92
125.5
2.54
0.33
0.90
1.31
2.10
0.0%
2022Q2
91
114.6
2.82
0.31
0.89
1.63
2.54
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
26
D × 20E × 6
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-04-02
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-02
Health
F0628
Provide the required documentation or notification related to the resident's needs, appeal rights, or bed-hold policies.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-02
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-02
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-02
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-02
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2026-05-04
2026-04-02
Health
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-02
Health
F0757
Ensure each resident’s drug regimen must be free from unnecessary drugs.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-02
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2026-05-04
2026-04-02
Health
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2026-05-04
2024-10-24
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-12-02
2024-10-24
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
D
2024-12-02
2024-10-24
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2024-12-02
2024-10-24
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2024-12-02
2024-10-24
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2024-12-02
2024-10-24
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-12-02
2024-10-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-12-02
2023-06-23
Health
F0578
Honor the resident's right to request, refuse, and/or discontinue treatment, to participate in or refuse to participate in experimental research, and to formulate an advance directive.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0692
Provide enough food/fluids to maintain a resident's health.
D
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
E
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2023-07-31
2023-06-23
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-07-31
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
27
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
CRYSTAL RIVER HEALTH AND REHABILITAT
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2023-06-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
CRYSTAL RIVER HEALTH AND REHABILITAT
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2024-06-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
ESTES, JAMES
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
68%
1999-02-19
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES N ESTES JR FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2019-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER E AGEE FAMILY DYNASTY TR NO 2
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2019-09-30
current
pecos_ownership
JAMES NORMAN ESTES JR TR
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
JENNIFER LEE ESTES TR 031093
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2013-06-30
current
pecos_ownership
BOYD, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
LONG, PHILLIP
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MCVEA, CHERI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2021-09-27
current
pecos_ownership
RASCO, LYNN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2022-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
REGIONS BANK
5% OR GREATER SECURITY INTEREST
—
2014-08-26
current
pecos_ownership
SCHNEIDER, JULIE
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2023-04-21
current
pecos_ownership
TONEY, DARIN
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
—
2024-04-15
current
pecos_ownership
CRYSTAL RIVER HEALTH AND REHABILITAT
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2022-06-01
ended 2023-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
CRYSTAL RIVER HEALTH AND REHABILITAT
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2021-06-01
ended 2022-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
CRYSTAL RIVER HEALTH AND REHABILITAT
Individual has financial interest in both related organization and provider
100%
2020-06-01
ended 2021-05-31
hcris_a_8_1
JAMES ESTES
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
1999-02-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT BOYD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2024-03-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRANDON AGEE
OTHER
33%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
OTHER
33%
2022-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHERI MCVEA
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
25%
2021-09-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DARIN TONEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
25%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JULIE SCHNEIDER
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
25%
2023-04-21
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
LYNN RASCO
CORPORATE DIRECTOR
25%
2022-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NHS MANAGEMENT LLC
OTHER
0%
2007-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PHILLIP LONG
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2019-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2025-05-31
$1,551,672
$3,002
$844,276
—
—
3
propco
2024-05-31
$1,394,948
—
$768,939
—
—
3
propco
2023-05-31
$1,027,388
—
$387,177
—
—
3
propco
2022-05-31
$1,347,185
—
$694,193
—
—
3
propco
2021-05-31
$1,458,822
—
$713,877
—
—
3
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
31
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12017
acs median gross
0
$775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12017
fmr
0
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12017
acs median gross
1
$847
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12017
fmr
1
$988
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12017
acs median gross
2
$1,004
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12017
fmr
2
$1,225
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12017
acs median gross
3
$1,381
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12017
fmr
3
$1,704
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12017
acs median gross
4
$1,466
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12017
fmr
4
$2,016
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12017
acs median gross
$1,107
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12017
acs recent mover gross
$1,410
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34429
acs median gross
1
$1,077
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34429
acs median gross
2
$706
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34429
acs median gross
3
$1,478
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34429
acs median gross
$1,046
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 34429
payment standard 110
0
$1,089
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
payment standard 90
0
$891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
safmr
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
payment standard 110
1
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
payment standard 90
1
$900
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
safmr
1
$1,000
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
payment standard 110
2
$1,364
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
payment standard 90
2
$1,116
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
safmr
2
$1,240
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
payment standard 110
3
$1,892
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
payment standard 90
3
$1,548
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
safmr
3
$1,720
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
payment standard 110
4
$2,244
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
payment standard 90
4
$1,836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34429
safmr
4
$2,040
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.