Reads as: riskier than 60.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
SHELBY JACK
31 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.60
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.42
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.46
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.66
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
69.7
3.60
0.42
0.79
2.39
3.46
1.6%
2025Q3
92
72.8
3.62
0.42
0.77
2.42
3.46
1.0%
2025Q2
91
74.5
3.59
0.38
0.74
2.47
3.44
0.5%
2025Q1
90
73.6
3.51
0.34
0.76
2.41
3.38
0.1%
2024Q4
92
75.1
3.47
0.24
0.90
2.33
3.36
1.0%
2024Q3
92
72.9
3.50
0.41
0.72
2.36
3.44
1.2%
2024Q2
91
77.0
3.38
0.40
0.63
2.36
3.31
0.0%
2024Q1
91
77.7
3.10
0.40
0.80
1.90
1.96
0.1%
2023Q4
92
77.2
2.76
0.36
0.81
1.59
1.62
6.0%
2023Q3
92
75.7
3.26
0.26
0.96
2.04
1.95
13.6%
2023Q2
91
76.2
3.10
0.32
0.94
1.84
1.71
17.0%
2023Q1
90
74.5
3.27
0.14
1.06
2.07
2.52
29.6%
2022Q4
92
74.4
3.81
0.25
1.02
2.54
3.67
25.4%
2022Q3
92
73.6
3.92
0.28
0.99
2.65
3.85
32.5%
2022Q2
91
74.3
3.73
0.42
0.82
2.49
3.75
30.5%
2022Q1
90
74.0
3.90
0.47
0.85
2.58
3.75
35.8%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure the activities program is directed by a qualified professional.
E
2025-08-15
2025-07-17
Health
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
D
2025-08-15
2025-07-17
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-08-15
2025-07-17
Health
F0773
Provide or obtain laboratory tests/services when ordered and promptly tell the ordering practitioner of the results.
D
2025-08-15
2025-07-17
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-08-15
2024-08-20
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-09-13
2024-08-20
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
G
2024-09-13
2023-06-08
Health
F0645
PASARR screening for Mental disorders or Intellectual Disabilities
E
2023-07-08
2023-06-08
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2023-07-08
2023-06-08
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2023-07-08
2023-06-08
Health
F0742
Provide the appropriate treatment and services to a resident who displays or is diagnosed with mental disorder or psychosocial adjustment difficulty, or who has a history of trauma and/or post-traumatic stress disorder.
D
2023-07-08
2023-06-08
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
D
2023-07-08
2023-06-08
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-07-08
2023-06-08
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2023-07-08
2023-06-08
Health · complaint
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
D
2023-07-08
2023-06-08
Health · complaint
F0925
Make sure there is a pest control program to prevent/deal with mice, insects, or other pests.
E
2023-07-08
2021-07-23
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2021-08-23
2021-07-23
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2021-08-23
2021-07-23
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2021-08-23
2021-07-23
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
E
2021-08-23
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FL MASTER OPCO HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
GREENBRIAR SNF HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
MCCULLOUGH, ANDREA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
SHELBY, JACK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
210 21ST AVE LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-01-01
ended 2020-12-31
hcris_a_8_1
ANDREA MCCULLOUGH
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JACK SHELBY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GOLD FL TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SILVER FL TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COPPER FL TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2020-12-31
$970,107
—
$561,717
—
—
12
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2022-07-27
—
GREENBRIAR HEALTHCARE REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12081
acs median gross
0
$1,526
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12081
fmr
0
$1,418
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12081
acs median gross
1
$1,380
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12081
fmr
1
$1,686
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12081
acs median gross
2
$1,639
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12081
fmr
2
$1,958
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12081
acs median gross
3
$1,845
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12081
fmr
3
$2,537
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12081
acs median gross
4
$2,578
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12081
fmr
4
$3,027
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12081
acs median gross
5
$1,939
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12081
acs median gross
$1,671
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12081
acs recent mover gross
$2,078
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34205
acs median gross
0
$1,190
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34205
acs median gross
1
$1,176
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34205
acs median gross
2
$1,472
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34205
acs median gross
3
$1,589
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34205
acs median gross
4
$2,299
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34205
acs median gross
5
$1,629
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34205
acs median gross
$1,441
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 34205
acs recent mover gross
$1,458
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 34205
payment standard 110
0
$1,254
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
payment standard 90
0
$1,026
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
safmr
0
$1,140
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
payment standard 110
1
$1,485
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
payment standard 90
1
$1,215
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
safmr
1
$1,350
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
payment standard 110
2
$1,727
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
payment standard 90
2
$1,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
safmr
2
$1,570
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
payment standard 110
3
$2,233
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
payment standard 90
3
$1,827
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
safmr
3
$2,030
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
payment standard 110
4
$2,673
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
payment standard 90
4
$2,187
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 34205
safmr
4
$2,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.