Reads as: riskier than 13.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
47 chains
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
251 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.35
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.40
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.15
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.42
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
124.6
3.35
0.40
0.86
2.08
3.15
0.0%
2025Q3
92
124.2
3.46
0.45
0.88
2.14
3.22
0.0%
2025Q2
91
128.1
3.46
0.44
0.88
2.14
3.19
0.0%
2025Q1
90
124.0
3.49
0.47
0.90
2.12
3.23
0.0%
2024Q4
92
126.1
3.50
0.50
0.81
2.18
3.27
0.0%
2024Q3
92
128.2
3.48
0.45
0.86
2.17
3.22
0.0%
2024Q2
91
128.4
3.42
0.39
0.89
2.15
3.13
0.0%
2024Q1
91
128.2
3.39
0.40
0.87
2.13
3.11
0.0%
2023Q4
92
124.5
3.46
0.37
0.90
2.18
3.19
0.0%
2023Q3
92
131.7
3.42
0.37
0.86
2.19
3.22
0.0%
2023Q2
91
127.8
3.56
0.33
0.95
2.28
3.29
0.0%
2023Q1
90
134.6
3.44
0.34
0.88
2.22
3.11
0.0%
2022Q4
92
130.7
3.40
0.32
0.88
2.20
3.20
0.0%
2022Q3
92
126.7
3.48
0.23
0.91
2.34
3.29
0.0%
2022Q2
91
125.8
3.19
0.20
0.95
2.04
2.92
0.0%
2022Q1
90
124.5
3.32
0.22
0.94
2.16
3.12
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
4
D × 4
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2025-03-27
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
D
2025-05-01
2025-03-27
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-05-01
2025-03-27
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-05-01
2025-03-27
Health
F0732
Post nurse staffing information every day.
D
2025-05-01
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
31
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BROWN, FATE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-05-01
current
pecos_ownership
CHERY, DAWN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2017-06-08
current
pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST 2015 FAMILY TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
CRONQUIST, ROYCE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
FARUQUI, IQBAL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1996-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
FORVIS MAZARS LLP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
HSP PANHANDLE, LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN J NOTERMANN BUSINESS TR
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2017-11-12
current
pecos_ownership
KAAR, SUSAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2003-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELLY, MICHELLE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
MANGINE, JOHN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-06-25
current
pecos_ownership
MANGINE, JOHN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2015-12-31
current
pecos_ownership
MELTON, DONALD
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
NOBLES, TRENTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-12-02
current
pecos_ownership
NOTERMANN, BRENDA
INDIVIDUAL IS AN OWNER, PARTNER OR TRUSTEE OF ANY ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
NOTERMANN, WILLIAM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2025-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-12-04
current
pecos_ownership
SOUTHERN HEALTHCARE MANAGEMENT LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-02-12
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE DISBURSEMENTS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2012-02-12
current
pecos_ownership
SOVEREIGN HEALTHCARE HOLDINGS LLC
DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2012-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHN MANGINE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
3%
2015-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAWN CHERY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-06-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONALD MELTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FATE BROWN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2017-05-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
IQBAL FARUQUI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
1996-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MANGINE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2012-06-25
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHELLE KELLY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROYCE CRONQUIST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2018-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SUSAN KAAR
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2003-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TRENTON NOBLES
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2024-12-02
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WILLIAM NOTERMANN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$576,046
—
$576,046
—
—
6
—
2023-12-31
$554,792
—
$554,792
—
—
6
—
2022-12-31
$476,880
—
$476,880
—
—
6
—
2021-12-31
$527,186
—
$527,186
—
—
6
—
2020-12-31
$515,844
—
$515,844
—
—
6
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
27
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12013
acs median gross
0
$1,652
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12013
fmr
0
$848
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12013
fmr
1
$888
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12013
acs median gross
2
$557
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12013
fmr
2
$973
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12013
acs median gross
3
$999
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12013
fmr
3
$1,283
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12013
fmr
4
$1,288
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12013
acs median gross
$779
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32424
acs median gross
2
$396
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32424
acs median gross
3
$1,192
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 32424
acs median gross
$640
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 32424
payment standard 110
0
$935
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
payment standard 90
0
$765
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
safmr
0
$850
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
payment standard 110
1
$979
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
payment standard 90
1
$801
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
safmr
1
$890
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
payment standard 110
2
$1,067
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
payment standard 90
2
$873
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
safmr
2
$970
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
payment standard 110
3
$1,408
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
payment standard 90
3
$1,152
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
safmr
3
$1,280
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
payment standard 110
4
$1,419
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
payment standard 90
4
$1,161
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 32424
safmr
4
$1,290
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.