CII TerminalCare Infrastructure Intelligence · model v1.2
pilot · 57,911 facilities
LIVE SIGNALS
ENFAXIS HEALTHCARE LLCTX · 2026-08-04 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFSWIFT RESPONSE INCTX · 2026-07-31 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFRGV GUARDIANS OF CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-31 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFDOVE HOSPICE CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-28 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFHANDS OF GOLD HOME CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-24 · HHSC: closure noticeENFCHRIST HOME CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-24 · HHSC: closure noticeENFAMOR CURA PHC LLCTX · 2026-07-24 · HHSC: closure noticeENFKINDER HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS LLCTX · 2026-07-20 · HHSC: closure noticeENFSUPREME TOUCH HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLCTX · 2026-07-20 · HHSC: closure noticeENFFACO HEALTHCARE SERVICES INCTX · 2026-07-20 · HHSC: closure noticeENFSAMNENAA CARE, INCTX · 2026-07-19 · HHSC: closure noticeENFINDEPENDENCE CARE OF TEXAS LLCTX · 2026-07-18 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFLA FAMILIA DEL PASO INCTX · 2026-07-10 · HHSC: closure noticeENFFRONTIDA HOSPICE CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-07 · HHSC: closure noticeMOVECrouse Community Center Inc+98.5NY · composite 0.0 → 98.5MOVEHOME INSTEAD-92.9FL · composite 98.3 → 5.4MOVEHOMEWELL CARE SERVICES-92.0FL · composite 98.3 → 6.3MOVEHOME INSTEAD-90.9FL · composite 97.2 → 6.3MOVEHOME HEART FLORIDA-90.3FL · composite 97.7 → 7.4MOVEVITALCARING GROUP-87.7FL · composite 98.1 → 10.4MOVESENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS-87.6FL · composite 90.6 → 3.0MOVERIGHT AT HOME-85.6FL · composite 93.8 → 8.2EXITSCANDINAVIAN HOME INC54.7%RI · p(termination 12m)EXITBEADLES NEW BEGINNINGS37.9%OK · p(termination 12m)EXITBlue Valley Lutheran Nursing Home36.5%NE · p(termination 12m)EXITPRESBYTERIAN HOME FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK INC35.1%NY · p(termination 12m)CHOWBEARTOOTH REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC76.9%MT · p(sale 12m)CHOWStonehaven Senior Living39.4%CA · p(sale 12m)CHOWAvoyelles Manor Nursing Home31.6%LA · p(sale 12m)CHOWKIT CARSON NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER30.5%CA · p(sale 12m)ENFAXIS HEALTHCARE LLCTX · 2026-08-04 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFSWIFT RESPONSE INCTX · 2026-07-31 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFRGV GUARDIANS OF CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-31 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFDOVE HOSPICE CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-28 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFHANDS OF GOLD HOME CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-24 · HHSC: closure noticeENFCHRIST HOME CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-24 · HHSC: closure noticeENFAMOR CURA PHC LLCTX · 2026-07-24 · HHSC: closure noticeENFKINDER HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS LLCTX · 2026-07-20 · HHSC: closure noticeENFSUPREME TOUCH HEALTHCARE SERVICES LLCTX · 2026-07-20 · HHSC: closure noticeENFFACO HEALTHCARE SERVICES INCTX · 2026-07-20 · HHSC: closure noticeENFSAMNENAA CARE, INCTX · 2026-07-19 · HHSC: closure noticeENFINDEPENDENCE CARE OF TEXAS LLCTX · 2026-07-18 · HHSC: ENFORCEMENT ACTION PENDENFLA FAMILIA DEL PASO INCTX · 2026-07-10 · HHSC: closure noticeENFFRONTIDA HOSPICE CARE LLCTX · 2026-07-07 · HHSC: closure noticeMOVECrouse Community Center Inc+98.5NY · composite 0.0 → 98.5MOVEHOME INSTEAD-92.9FL · composite 98.3 → 5.4MOVEHOMEWELL CARE SERVICES-92.0FL · composite 98.3 → 6.3MOVEHOME INSTEAD-90.9FL · composite 97.2 → 6.3MOVEHOME HEART FLORIDA-90.3FL · composite 97.7 → 7.4MOVEVITALCARING GROUP-87.7FL · composite 98.1 → 10.4MOVESENIOR CARE SOLUTIONS-87.6FL · composite 90.6 → 3.0MOVERIGHT AT HOME-85.6FL · composite 93.8 → 8.2EXITSCANDINAVIAN HOME INC54.7%RI · p(termination 12m)EXITBEADLES NEW BEGINNINGS37.9%OK · p(termination 12m)EXITBlue Valley Lutheran Nursing Home36.5%NE · p(termination 12m)EXITPRESBYTERIAN HOME FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK INC35.1%NY · p(termination 12m)CHOWBEARTOOTH REHABILITATION AND NURSING LLC76.9%MT · p(sale 12m)CHOWStonehaven Senior Living39.4%CA · p(sale 12m)CHOWAvoyelles Manor Nursing Home31.6%LA · p(sale 12m)CHOWKIT CARSON NURSING & REHABILITATION CENTER30.5%CA · p(sale 12m)
AS OF 2026-08-04 17:21 UTC
Parallel model engine

ML Lab

the parallel engine — runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it · every finding is a reproducible SQL read
Open anomalies
499
data contradicting peers or own record
Open connections
2,907
implied by the ontology, stated nowhere
Last scan
2026-07-29
weekly · Mondays 09:40 UTC · pg_cron
Learned models
2
score refresh weekly · retrain monthly

Engine runs

KindStartedFinishedOKStats
anomaly_scan2026-07-292026-07-29yesresolved=0 · penalty_spike=234 · staffing_cliff=127 · ownership_churn=0 · staffing_collapse=35 · high_risk_high_stars=103
connection_scan2026-07-292026-07-29yesresolved=0 · serial_acquirer=5 · cross_chain_owner=500 · enforcement_cluster=938 · fleet_risk_signature=1464
retrain2026-08-012026-08-01FAILEDerror=No module named 'numpy'
score_refresh2026-08-032026-08-03FAILEDerror=permission denied for table cii_model_registry
model p_adverse_action_12m2026-07-29v0.1defaultR23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
model p_chow_12m2026-07-29v0.1defaultR22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
scans execute inside Postgres on pg_cron; score refreshes and retrains run in the API process, triggered over pg_net — the cadence survives sandbox loss

Anomalies — 127 open · Staffing cliff

AllStaffing collapseStaffing cliffRisk vs stars divergenceOwnership churnPenalty spike
FacilityTypeSignalSettingStateCityFirst seen
SAMARITAN KEEP NURSING HOME INCStaffing cliff−100% QoQsnfNYWATERTOWN2026-07-29
SAMARITAN SENIOR VILLAGE, INCStaffing cliff−100% QoQsnfNYWATERTOWN2026-07-29
BLOOMINGTON REHABILITATION & HCCStaffing cliff−100% QoQsnfILBLOOMINGTON2026-07-29
ST LUKE LIVING CENTERStaffing cliff−100% QoQsnfKSMARION2026-07-29
MAISON TECHE NURSING CENTERStaffing cliff−100% QoQsnfLAJEANERETTE2026-07-29
Chapters Living of Council BluffsStaffing cliff−100% QoQsnfIACouncil Bluffs2026-07-29
Avoyelles Manor Nursing HomeStaffing cliff−98% QoQsnfLADUPONT2026-07-29
Heritage Gardens Health Care CenterStaffing cliff−97% QoQsnfCALoma Linda2026-07-29
HICKMAN COMMUNITY NURSING HOMEStaffing cliff−97% QoQnfTNCENTERVILLE2026-07-29
CASA DE MODESTOStaffing cliff−97% QoQsnfCAMODESTO2026-07-29
Martin Rehabilitation Center, LLCStaffing cliff−96% QoQsnfFLSTUART2026-07-29
DELMAR GARDENS OF LENEXAStaffing cliff−95% QoQsnfKSLENEXA2026-07-29
TWO PALMS CARE CENTERStaffing cliff−92% QoQsnfCAPASADENA2026-07-29
CHENANGO MEMORIAL HOSPITAL INC S N FStaffing cliff−90% QoQsnfNYNORWICH2026-07-29
TJ Samson Community HospitalStaffing cliff−89% QoQsnfKYGlasgow2026-07-29
Madison Healthcare ServicesStaffing cliff−89% QoQsnfMNMADISON2026-07-29
WILLOW CREEK POST ACUTEStaffing cliff−87% QoQsnfORMADRAS2026-07-29
REHABILITATION CENTER AT JEFFERSON HILLS, THEStaffing cliff−86% QoQsnfPAJEFFERSON HILLS2026-07-29
Santa Fe Care CenterStaffing cliff−85% QoQsnfNMSanta Fe2026-07-29
Arbor Acres United Methodist Retirement CommunityStaffing cliff−83% QoQsnfNCWinston Salem2026-07-29
La Bella of MorrisonStaffing cliff−83% QoQsnfILMORRISON2026-07-29
BOOKER HOSPITAL DISTRICT DBA: TWIN OAKS MANORStaffing cliff−82% QoQsnfTXBOOKER2026-07-29
HI-LINE RETIREMENT CENTERStaffing cliff−79% QoQsnfMTMALTA2026-07-29
LATIMER NURSING HOMEStaffing cliff−79% QoQsnfOKWILBURTON2026-07-29
PARKVIEW HEALTHCARE CENTERStaffing cliff−79% QoQsnfCAANAHEIM2026-07-29
quarter-over-quarter total HPRD drop ≥25% landing under 3.0 HPRD

Connections — 5 open · Serial acquirer

AllSerial acquirerCross-chain ownerFleet risk signatureEnforcement cluster
SubjectRelationStrengthEvidenceFirst seen
FANNIN COUNTY HOSPITAL AUTHORITYSerial acquirer8 facilities / 24mostates: TX2026-07-29
NORTH BIG HORN HOSPITAL DISTRICTSerial acquirer8 facilities / 24mostates: WY2026-07-29
FRIO HOSPITAL DISTRICTSerial acquirer6 facilities / 24mostates: TX2026-07-29
WINNIE-STOWELL HOSPITAL DISTRICTSerial acquirer6 facilities / 24mostates: TX2026-07-29
SWEENY HOSPITAL DISTRICTSerial acquirer5 facilities / 24mostates: TX2026-07-29
one buyer organization taking over 5+ facilities inside 24 months — a chain being assembled in real time