Parallel model engine
ML Lab
Open anomalies
499
data contradicting peers or own record
Open connections
2,907
implied by the ontology, stated nowhere
Last scan
2026-07-29
weekly · Mondays 09:40 UTC · pg_cron
Learned models
2
score refresh weekly · retrain monthly
Engine runs
| Kind | Started | Finished | OK | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| anomaly_scan | 2026-07-29 | 2026-07-29 | yes | resolved=0 · penalty_spike=234 · staffing_cliff=127 · ownership_churn=0 · staffing_collapse=35 · high_risk_high_stars=103 |
| connection_scan | 2026-07-29 | 2026-07-29 | yes | resolved=0 · serial_acquirer=5 · cross_chain_owner=500 · enforcement_cluster=938 · fleet_risk_signature=1464 |
| retrain | 2026-08-01 | 2026-08-01 | FAILED | error=No module named 'numpy' |
| score_refresh | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-03 | FAILED | error=permission denied for table cii_model_registry |
| model p_adverse_action_12m | 2026-07-29 | v0.1 | default | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| model p_chow_12m | 2026-07-29 | v0.1 | default | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
scans execute inside Postgres on pg_cron; score refreshes and retrains run in the API process, triggered over pg_net — the cadence survives sandbox loss
Anomalies — 35 open · Staffing collapse
| Facility | Type | Signal | Setting | State | City | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MAISON TECHE NURSING CENTER | Staffing collapse | 5.4σ below state mean | snf | LA | JEANERETTE | 2026-07-29 |
| Avoyelles Manor Nursing Home | Staffing collapse | 5.3σ below state mean | snf | LA | DUPONT | 2026-07-29 |
| Rose Linn Care Center | Staffing collapse | 5.3σ below state mean | snf | OR | WEST LINN | 2026-07-29 |
| Heritage Gardens Health Care Center | Staffing collapse | 4.5σ below state mean | snf | CA | Loma Linda | 2026-07-29 |
| SAMARITAN KEEP NURSING HOME INC | Staffing collapse | 4.4σ below state mean | snf | NY | WATERTOWN | 2026-07-29 |
| SAMARITAN SENIOR VILLAGE, INC | Staffing collapse | 4.4σ below state mean | snf | NY | WATERTOWN | 2026-07-29 |
| REHABILITATION CENTER AT JEFFERSON HILLS, THE | Staffing collapse | 4.3σ below state mean | snf | PA | JEFFERSON HILLS | 2026-07-29 |
| ST LUKE LIVING CENTER | Staffing collapse | 4.1σ below state mean | snf | KS | MARION | 2026-07-29 |
| Beaconshire Nursing Centre | Staffing collapse | 4.0σ below state mean | snf | MI | Detroit | 2026-07-29 |
| Bayou Vista Nursing and Rehab Center | Staffing collapse | 4.0σ below state mean | snf | LA | BUNKIE | 2026-07-29 |
| Mahoning Operating LLC | Staffing collapse | 3.9σ below state mean | snf | PA | LEHIGHTON | 2026-07-29 |
| DELMAR GARDENS OF LENEXA | Staffing collapse | 3.9σ below state mean | snf | KS | LENEXA | 2026-07-29 |
| La Bella of Morrison | Staffing collapse | 3.9σ below state mean | snf | IL | MORRISON | 2026-07-29 |
| Madison Healthcare Services | Staffing collapse | 3.8σ below state mean | snf | MN | MADISON | 2026-07-29 |
| EAMC LANIER NURSING HOME | Staffing collapse | 3.7σ below state mean | snf | AL | VALLEY | 2026-07-29 |
| PARKVIEW HEALTHCARE CENTER | Staffing collapse | 3.7σ below state mean | snf | CA | ANAHEIM | 2026-07-29 |
| LATIMER NURSING HOME | Staffing collapse | 3.6σ below state mean | snf | OK | WILBURTON | 2026-07-29 |
| BOOKER HOSPITAL DISTRICT DBA: TWIN OAKS MANOR | Staffing collapse | 3.6σ below state mean | snf | TX | BOOKER | 2026-07-29 |
| Hayes Residence | Staffing collapse | 3.1σ below state mean | snf | MN | SAINT PAUL | 2026-07-29 |
| Bywood East Health Care | Staffing collapse | 3.1σ below state mean | snf | MN | MINNEAPOLIS | 2026-07-29 |
| COLDWATER MANOR | Staffing collapse | 3.1σ below state mean | snf | TX | STRATFORD | 2026-07-29 |
| HILLSIDE MANOR NURSING HOME | Staffing collapse | 3.0σ below state mean | snf | IN | WASHINGTON | 2026-07-29 |
| Birchwood Care Home | Staffing collapse | 2.9σ below state mean | snf | MN | MINNEAPOLIS | 2026-07-29 |
| REDDING POST ACUTE | Staffing collapse | 2.8σ below state mean | snf | CA | REDDING | 2026-07-29 |
| Santa Fe Care Center | Staffing collapse | 2.8σ below state mean | snf | NM | Santa Fe | 2026-07-29 |
latest quarter total nurse HPRD ≥2.5 state standard deviations below the state mean (census ≥20, ≥60 days reported)
Connections — 1,464 open · Fleet risk signature
| Subject | Relation | Strength | Evidence | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IOWA 5784 LLC | Fleet risk signature | +47.8 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| AMARANTHINE HOLDINGS LLC | Fleet risk signature | +47.2 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CARESAGE ADMINISTRATIVE CONSULTING LLC | Fleet risk signature | +47.2 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| JSJ 2020 FAMILY TR | Fleet risk signature | +47.2 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| HOWARD DANIEL | Fleet risk signature | +46.2 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| PANCER AARON | Fleet risk signature | +46.0 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| KEYSTONE HOLDING GROUP II LLC | Fleet risk signature | +45.7 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| HCF HOMECARE INC | Fleet risk signature | +45.4 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| BLOOMING WILLOW PARTNERS LLC | Fleet risk signature | +45.3 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| DERHOBEN TRUST | Fleet risk signature | +45.3 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| PAS B SOL TRUST | Fleet risk signature | +45.3 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| WILDFLOWER HEALTHCARE LLC | Fleet risk signature | +45.3 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| GOLDEN LAUREN | Fleet risk signature | +44.8 vs national · 8 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| DOYLE MARIA | Fleet risk signature | +44.7 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| JACOBS HYMAN | Fleet risk signature | +44.7 vs national · 8 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| WATSON NATHAN | Fleet risk signature | +44.7 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| SHABAT RONALD | Fleet risk signature | +44.6 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| GOLDEN SHAWN | Fleet risk signature | +44.4 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| SLM INVESTMENTS LLC | Fleet risk signature | +44.4 vs national · 5 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CHAD UNVERFERTH | Fleet risk signature | +44.1 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| METTERNICH CHRISTOPHER | Fleet risk signature | +44.1 vs national · 8 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CELESTE KLAY | Fleet risk signature | +43.9 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| KERRI ROMES | Fleet risk signature | +43.9 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| PRINCE DANNY | Fleet risk signature | +43.9 vs national · 12 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| SCOTT UNVERFERTH | Fleet risk signature | +43.9 vs national · 6 facilities | 2026-07-29 |
owner fleets of 5+ scored facilities whose mean composite sits 20+ points above the national mean