Parallel model engine
ML Lab
Open anomalies
499
data contradicting peers or own record
Open connections
2,907
implied by the ontology, stated nowhere
Last scan
2026-07-29
weekly · Mondays 09:40 UTC · pg_cron
Learned models
2
score refresh weekly · retrain monthly
Engine runs
| Kind | Started | Finished | OK | Stats |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| anomaly_scan | 2026-07-29 | 2026-07-29 | yes | resolved=0 · penalty_spike=234 · staffing_cliff=127 · ownership_churn=0 · staffing_collapse=35 · high_risk_high_stars=103 |
| connection_scan | 2026-07-29 | 2026-07-29 | yes | resolved=0 · serial_acquirer=5 · cross_chain_owner=500 · enforcement_cluster=938 · fleet_risk_signature=1464 |
| retrain | 2026-08-01 | 2026-08-01 | FAILED | error=No module named 'numpy' |
| score_refresh | 2026-08-03 | 2026-08-03 | FAILED | error=permission denied for table cii_model_registry |
| model p_adverse_action_12m | 2026-07-29 | v0.1 | default | R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite. |
| model p_chow_12m | 2026-07-29 | v0.1 | default | R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite. |
scans execute inside Postgres on pg_cron; score refreshes and retrains run in the API process, triggered over pg_net — the cadence survives sandbox loss
Anomalies — 234 open · Penalty spike
| Facility | Type | Signal | Setting | State | City | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BROOKSIDE INN | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | CO | CASTLE ROCK | 2026-07-29 |
| Merkel Nursing Center | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | TX | Merkel | 2026-07-29 |
| KINZUA NURSING AND REHAB | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | PA | WARREN | 2026-07-29 |
| AVIATA AT BIG BEND | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | FL | PERRY | 2026-07-29 |
| Fort Dodge Health and Rehabilitation | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | IA | Fort Dodge | 2026-07-29 |
| MERIDIAN CARE OF ALICE | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | TX | ALICE | 2026-07-29 |
| Norfolk Health Care Center | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | VA | NORFOLK | 2026-07-29 |
| GOLDEN YEARS CENTER FOR REHAB AND HEALTHCARE | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | MO | HARRISONVILLE | 2026-07-29 |
| Clayton Rehabilitation and Healthcare Center | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | NC | Clayton | 2026-07-29 |
| Advanced Rehabilitation and Healthcare of Athens | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | TX | Athens | 2026-07-29 |
| MILLER HEALTH CARE CENTER | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | IL | KANKAKEE | 2026-07-29 |
| GARDENS OF EUCLID BEACH | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | OH | CLEVELAND | 2026-07-29 |
| THE HAMPTONS CENTER FOR REHABILITATION AND NURSING | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | NY | SOUTH HAMPTON | 2026-07-29 |
| Buena Vida Nursing and Rehab-San Antonio | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | TX | SAN ANTONIO | 2026-07-29 |
| Good Samaritan Society - Windom | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | MN | WINDOM | 2026-07-29 |
| Trinity Center at Luther Park | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | IA | Des Moines | 2026-07-29 |
| FRANCISCAN CARE CTR SYLVANIA | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | OH | TOLEDO | 2026-07-29 |
| Peach Tree Place | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | TX | Weatherford | 2026-07-29 |
| OLD DOMINION REHABILITATION AND NURSING | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | VA | NEWPORT NEWS | 2026-07-29 |
| TRENTON GARDENS REHABILITATION AND NURSING CENTER | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | NJ | TRENTON | 2026-07-29 |
| Fairlane Gardens Nursing and Rehab at Reading | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | PA | READING | 2026-07-29 |
| Arbor Grace Guest Care Center | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | TX | Kilgore | 2026-07-29 |
| Chapters Living of Council Bluffs | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | IA | Council Bluffs | 2026-07-29 |
| WATERS EDGE AT PORT JEFFERSON FOR REHAB AND NRSG | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | NY | PORT JEFFERSON | 2026-07-29 |
| Benedictine Care Community | Penalty spike | no prior fines | snf | MN | ADA | 2026-07-29 |
trailing-12-month fines ≥$50k and ≥3x the facility's own prior 3-year annual average
Connections — 500 open · Cross-chain owner
| Subject | Relation | Strength | Evidence | First seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FORVIS MAZARS LLP | Cross-chain owner | 47 chains · 251 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| WELLTOWER INC | Cross-chain owner | 35 chains · 135 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| WELLTOWER OP LLC | Cross-chain owner | 33 chains · 147 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| FREUND NOCHUM | Cross-chain owner | 28 chains · 109 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| TRAVITSKY AARON | Cross-chain owner | 28 chains · 106 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| DAGAN AMITAI | Cross-chain owner | 27 chains · 101 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| GOLDBERGER ABRAHAM | Cross-chain owner | 27 chains · 100 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| WELLTOWER NNN GROUP LLC | Cross-chain owner | 27 chains · 102 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| LUMENT REAL ESTATE CAPITAL LLC | Cross-chain owner | 24 chains · 45 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CLIFTONLARSONALLEN LLP | Cross-chain owner | 20 chains · 98 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| GOLDBERGER FAIGY | Cross-chain owner | 20 chains · 68 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CTR PARTNERSHIP LP | Cross-chain owner | 18 chains · 99 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| ENSIGN SERVICES INC | Cross-chain owner | 18 chains · 286 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| PLANTE MORAN PLLC | Cross-chain owner | 18 chains · 55 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| BURNAM SOON | Cross-chain owner | 17 chains · 335 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| KEETCH CHAD | Cross-chain owner | 17 chains · 283 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| BAKER TILLY ADVISORY GROUP LP | Cross-chain owner | 16 chains · 77 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| AEGIS THERAPIES INC | Cross-chain owner | 15 chains · 32 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| BAKER TILLY US LLP | Cross-chain owner | 15 chains · 63 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CARETRUST REIT INC | Cross-chain owner | 15 chains · 96 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| CIBC BANK USA | Cross-chain owner | 15 chains · 155 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| WILLIG ZACHARY | Cross-chain owner | 15 chains · 81 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| BARNEY LEIGH | Cross-chain owner | 14 chains · 122 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| BRAND SONNENSCHINE LLP | Cross-chain owner | 14 chains · 42 facilities | 2026-07-29 | |
| DAVIS DAVID | Cross-chain owner | 14 chains · 122 facilities | 2026-07-29 |
one canonical owner holding ≥5% stakes in facilities branded under 3+ different chains