Reads as: riskier than 21.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
2
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
BLACKROCK INC
303 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
8 chains
VANGUARD GROUP INC
324 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
TN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.30
3.28
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.29
0.34
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.94
3.10
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.45
3.36
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
181.8
3.30
0.29
1.02
1.99
2.94
0.0%
2025Q3
92
181.9
3.18
0.35
0.96
1.87
2.84
0.0%
2025Q2
91
181.3
3.06
0.27
1.08
1.71
2.74
0.0%
2025Q1
90
174.1
3.18
0.27
1.06
1.84
2.92
0.0%
2024Q4
92
172.5
3.56
0.38
1.02
2.16
3.15
0.0%
2024Q3
92
174.2
3.55
0.44
0.95
2.16
3.16
0.0%
2024Q2
91
182.0
3.34
0.41
0.94
1.99
3.03
0.0%
2024Q1
91
181.4
3.35
0.45
0.89
2.01
3.01
0.0%
2023Q4
92
181.7
3.44
0.43
0.86
2.15
3.08
0.0%
2023Q3
92
180.1
3.45
0.41
0.93
2.11
3.06
0.0%
2023Q2
91
181.4
3.36
0.40
0.96
2.00
3.02
0.2%
2023Q1
90
177.3
3.41
0.33
0.98
2.10
3.15
2.3%
2022Q4
92
182.0
3.40
0.33
1.03
2.04
3.12
1.7%
2022Q3
92
175.0
3.56
0.27
1.12
2.17
3.24
3.3%
2022Q2
91
175.6
3.53
0.23
1.10
2.19
3.17
10.3%
2022Q1
90
175.1
3.54
0.25
1.19
2.10
3.02
12.7%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
10
D × 7E × 2F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2024-10-16
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-16
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
D
2024-11-15
2024-10-16
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-11-16
2022-01-12
Health
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2022-02-25
2022-01-12
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2022-02-25
2022-01-12
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2022-02-25
2022-01-12
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2022-02-25
2022-01-12
Health
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
D
2022-02-25
2022-01-12
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2022-02-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
29
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
BIDWELL, GREGORY
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2010-01-20
current
pecos_ownership
DODSON, VICKI
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
HARNDEN, CELESTE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-11-01
current
pecos_ownership
JOHNSTON, CHARLES
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-12-11
current
pecos_ownership
KIDD, BRIAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY INSTITUTIONAL ADVISORS LLC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-11-08
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTHCARE CORPORATION
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-05-22
current
pecos_ownership
NHC-OP LP
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
NHC/DELAWARE INC
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
RAFFA, ANTHONY J
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-18
current
pecos_ownership
RAFFA, ANTHONY J
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-29
current
pecos_ownership
USSERY, ROBERT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
current
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2006-11-30
current
pecos_ownership
BLACKROCK INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
13%
2019-03-20
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VANGUARD GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
9%
2017-03-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
NATIONAL HEALTH CORPORATION
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
7%
2000-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DIMENSIONAL FUND ADVISORS LP
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
6%
2023-03-07
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MORGAN STANLEY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2024-11-08
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY J RAFFA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-29
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANTHONY J RAFFA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2016-04-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BRIAN KIDD
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CELESTE HARNDEN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-11-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLES JOHNSTON
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2017-12-11
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GREGORY BIDWELL
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT USSERY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2000-07-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VICKI DODSON
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2019-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,848,902
—
—
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$1,193,172
—
$444,605
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$698,878
—
$512,104
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$1,668,637
—
$836,398
$16,988
$31,017
2
—
2020-12-31
$2,473,981
—
$14,654
$938,836
$64,670
2
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 47065
acs median gross
0
$966
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47065
fmr
0
$1,211
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47065
acs median gross
1
$1,136
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47065
fmr
1
$1,263
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47065
acs median gross
2
$1,220
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47065
fmr
2
$1,390
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47065
acs median gross
3
$1,457
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47065
fmr
3
$1,734
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47065
acs median gross
4
$1,658
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47065
fmr
4
$1,853
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 47065
acs median gross
5
$1,651
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47065
acs median gross
$1,253
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 47065
acs recent mover gross
$1,461
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37404
acs median gross
0
$624
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37404
acs median gross
1
$902
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37404
acs median gross
2
$1,047
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37404
acs median gross
3
$1,476
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37404
acs median gross
4
$1,705
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37404
acs median gross
5
$1,246
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37404
acs median gross
$1,094
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 37404
acs recent mover gross
$1,435
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 37404
payment standard 110
0
$1,243
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
payment standard 90
0
$1,017
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
safmr
0
$1,130
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
payment standard 110
1
$1,298
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
payment standard 90
1
$1,062
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
safmr
1
$1,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
payment standard 110
2
$1,430
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
payment standard 90
2
$1,170
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
safmr
2
$1,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
payment standard 110
3
$1,782
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
payment standard 90
3
$1,458
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
safmr
3
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
payment standard 110
4
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
payment standard 90
4
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 37404
safmr
4
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.