160 S MAIN ST, OCEAN GROVE, NJ 07756 · CCN 315365 · chain SMS 2021 TRUST
Composite
67.5 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
147
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 67.5% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
6
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.7 vs natl
PC HMH PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.2 vs natl
PC HMH PROPCO INTERMEDIATE 9 LLC
7 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.7 vs natl
PC HMH TOPCO PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
6 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.3 vs natl
PC HMH HOLDINGS LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+26.3 vs natl
PC HMH OPCO HOLDNGS LLC
8 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.7 vs natl
SABELLA SABRINA
5 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
NJ median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.40
3.31
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.32
0.35
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.35
3.21
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.41
3.37
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
89.5
3.40
0.32
1.01
2.06
3.35
25.4%
2025Q3
92
88.8
3.22
0.32
0.81
2.09
3.33
19.5%
2025Q2
91
91.3
3.39
0.31
0.96
2.11
3.20
23.1%
2025Q1
90
90.2
3.50
0.29
1.06
2.15
3.42
26.4%
2024Q4
92
84.5
3.70
0.29
1.14
2.27
3.61
26.0%
2024Q3
92
92.9
3.73
0.30
1.19
2.24
3.68
37.2%
2024Q2
91
92.8
3.63
0.62
1.01
2.00
3.36
28.4%
2024Q1
91
86.1
3.97
0.55
0.95
2.47
3.41
14.1%
2023Q4
92
85.7
3.63
0.42
1.13
2.08
3.35
20.5%
2023Q3
92
86.3
2.69
0.31
0.64
1.75
2.33
6.6%
2023Q2
91
90.6
2.92
0.50
0.23
2.19
2.54
30.1%
2023Q1
90
86.7
3.42
0.50
0.72
2.21
3.15
30.1%
2022Q4
92
85.8
3.98
0.52
0.96
2.50
3.57
33.2%
2022Q3
92
88.4
3.63
0.51
0.77
2.34
3.25
22.0%
2022Q2
91
91.2
3.80
0.61
0.77
2.43
3.46
24.6%
2022Q1
90
93.9
3.29
0.57
0.86
1.86
2.84
24.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
26
D × 19E × 6F × 1
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-06
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-03-03
2025-07-24
Health
F0584
Honor the resident's right to a safe, clean, comfortable and homelike environment, including but not limited to receiving treatment and supports for daily living safely.
D
2025-09-25
2025-07-24
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2025-09-30
2025-07-24
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2025-09-25
2025-07-24
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-09-25
2025-07-24
Health
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2025-09-25
2025-07-24
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
E
2025-09-25
2025-07-24
Health
F0760
Ensure that residents are free from significant medication errors.
E
2025-09-25
2025-07-24
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
E
2025-09-25
2025-07-24
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-09-25
2025-07-24
Health
F0813
Have a policy regarding use and storage of foods brought to residents by family and other visitors.
D
2025-09-25
2025-07-24
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2025-09-25
2025-05-15
Health · complaint
F0727
Have a registered nurse on duty 8 hours a day; and select a registered nurse to be the director of nurses on a full time basis.
D
2025-06-23
2025-05-15
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2025-06-23
2024-06-28
Health · complaint
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-08-07
2024-06-28
Health · complaint
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
E
2024-08-07
2024-02-19
Health
F0582
Give residents notice of Medicaid/Medicare coverage and potential liability for services not covered.
E
2024-03-29
2024-02-19
Health
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-03-29
2024-02-19
Health
F0609
Timely report suspected abuse, neglect, or theft and report the results of the investigation to proper authorities.
D
2024-03-29
2024-02-19
Health
F0610
Respond appropriately to all alleged violations.
D
2024-03-29
2024-02-19
Health
F0655
Create and put into place a plan for meeting the resident's most immediate needs within 48 hours of being admitted
D
2024-03-29
2024-02-19
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2024-03-29
2024-02-19
Health
F0759
Ensure medication error rates are not 5 percent or greater.
D
2024-03-29
2024-02-19
Health
F0842
Safeguard resident-identifiable information and/or maintain medical records on each resident that are in accordance with accepted professional standards.
D
2024-03-29
2024-02-19
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2024-03-29
2021-11-17
Health
F0644
Coordinate assessments with the pre-admission screening and resident review program; and referring for services as needed.
D
2021-12-10
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
25
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PC HMH OPCO HOLDNGS LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH PROPCO HOLDING LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2024-01-01
current
hcris_a_8_1
PC HMH PROPCO HOLDING LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2023-03-16
current
hcris_a_8_1
DUDICK, FRANCINE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
EEF CAPITAL LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
HOCH, ROBERT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
MERCADO, WANDA
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
OCEAN GROVE PROPCO HOLDCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
OCEAN GROVE PROPCO LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PASS, MARK
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH HOLDINGS LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH PROPCO INTERMEDIATE 9 LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PC HMH TOPCO PROPCO HOLDINGS LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
PEACE CAPITAL HOLDINGS LLC (DE)
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SABELLA, SABRINA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SMS 2021 TRUST
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
STEIN, SHALOM
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
STERN, JOSEPH
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
current
pecos_ownership
SHALOM STEIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
5%
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FRANCINE DUDICK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSEPH STERN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK PASS
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ROBERT HOCH
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SABRINA SABELLA
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WANDA MERCADO
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-03-16
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$2,569,889
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-12-31
$2,106,384
—
—
—
—
2
propco
2023-03-15
$422,382
—
—
$113,962
$179,146
10
—
2022-12-31
$3,122,758
—
$869,813
$79,388
$1,386,550
10
—
2021-12-31
$2,916,430
—
—
$41,722
$1,409,807
10
—
2020-12-31
$1,567,767
—
$807,890
$35,268
$18,181
10
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
32
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 34025
acs median gross
0
$1,439
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
0
$1,676
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
1
$1,497
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
1
$1,889
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
2
$2,057
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
2
$2,328
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
3
$2,485
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
3
$3,043
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
4
$2,753
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
fmr
4
$3,371
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 34025
acs median gross
5
$2,261
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
acs median gross
$1,827
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 34025
acs recent mover gross
$2,294
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07756
acs median gross
0
$1,109
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07756
acs median gross
1
$1,287
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07756
acs median gross
3
$3,108
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 07756
acs median gross
$1,488
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 07756
payment standard 110
0
$1,375
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
payment standard 90
0
$1,125
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
safmr
0
$1,250
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
payment standard 110
1
$1,540
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
payment standard 90
1
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
safmr
1
$1,400
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
payment standard 110
2
$1,903
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
payment standard 90
2
$1,557
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
safmr
2
$1,730
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
payment standard 110
3
$2,486
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
payment standard 90
3
$2,034
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
safmr
3
$2,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
payment standard 110
4
$2,761
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
payment standard 90
4
$2,259
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 07756
safmr
4
$2,510
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.