300 Shelby Station Drive, Louisville, KY 40245 · CCN 185455 · chain PACS HOLDINGS LLC
Composite
65.3 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
162
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 65.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
4
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
JERGENSEN JOSHUA
249 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
7 chains
MITCHELL JOHN
264 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
THE PROVIDENCE GROUPS LLC
34 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
APT FREDERICK
254 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
KY median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.72
3.11
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.49
0.41
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.48
3.01
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.82
3.16
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
154.7
3.72
0.49
0.99
2.25
3.48
15.4%
2025Q3
92
155.2
3.54
0.56
0.83
2.16
3.43
11.5%
2025Q2
91
141.0
4.32
0.65
1.02
2.65
4.35
28.8%
2025Q1
90
148.0
3.56
0.49
1.02
2.05
3.21
23.1%
2024Q4
92
143.5
3.55
0.32
1.21
2.03
3.09
19.7%
2024Q3
92
141.4
3.81
0.33
1.29
2.19
3.38
30.1%
2024Q2
91
140.8
3.84
0.40
1.23
2.21
3.48
28.6%
2024Q1
91
153.2
3.40
0.32
1.17
1.93
3.00
19.7%
2023Q4
92
153.2
3.29
0.31
1.08
1.89
2.86
0.0%
2023Q3
92
154.7
3.56
0.39
1.13
2.03
3.21
0.0%
2023Q2
91
149.5
3.98
0.53
1.15
2.31
3.46
0.0%
2023Q1
90
149.0
3.44
0.31
0.85
2.27
3.52
0.0%
2022Q4
92
139.5
3.00
0.26
0.84
1.90
2.90
0.0%
2022Q3
92
139.1
3.08
0.36
0.74
1.97
3.01
0.0%
2022Q2
91
127.1
3.23
0.39
0.77
2.07
3.06
0.0%
2022Q1
90
124.8
3.13
0.32
0.84
1.97
2.88
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Ensure food and drink is palatable, attractive, and at a safe and appetizing temperature.
E
2026-05-01
2025-08-08
Health · complaint
F0687
Provide appropriate foot care.
D
2025-08-15
2025-05-14
Health
F0730
Observe each nurse aide's job performance and give regular training.
D
2025-08-08
2025-05-14
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2025-08-15
2024-05-17
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2024-05-06
2024-04-20
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
E
2024-05-06
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0554
Allow residents to self-administer drugs if determined clinically appropriate.
E
2024-03-01
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2024-03-01
2024-02-06
Health
F0658
Ensure services provided by the nursing facility meet professional standards of quality.
D
2024-03-01
2024-02-06
Health
F0678
Provide basic life support, including CPR, prior to the arrival of emergency medical personnel , subject to physician orders and the resident’s advance directives.
D
2024-03-01
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2022-01-01
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0693
Ensure that feeding tubes are not used unless there is a medical reason and the resident agrees; and provide appropriate care for a resident with a feeding tube.
D
2024-03-01
2024-02-06
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2024-03-01
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-03-01
2024-02-06
Health
F0814
Dispose of garbage and refuse properly.
F
2024-03-01
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
J
2022-01-01
2024-02-06
Health · complaint
F0837
Establish a governing body that is legally responsible for establishing and implementing policies for managing and operating the facility and appoints a properly licensed administrator responsible for managing the facility.
J
2022-01-01
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
15
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
PROVIDENCE GROUP INC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
APT, FREDERICK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
BABAR, MUHAMMAD
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
ESTES, TAYLOR
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-10-17
current
pecos_ownership
JERGENSEN, JOSHUA
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
MITCHELL, JOHN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
PACS GROUP, INC.
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PACS HOLDINGS, LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2023-06-30
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JASON MURRAY
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2024-04-15
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK HANCOCK
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
42%
2020-12-31
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
FREDERICK APT
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN MITCHELL
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOSHUA JERGENSEN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2024-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MUHAMMAD BABAR
CONTRACTED MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2018-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
TAYLOR ESTES
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-10-17
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
5
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,060,422
—
$1,060,422
—
—
2
—
2023-12-31
$1,214,693
—
$1,214,693
—
—
2
—
2022-12-31
$1,023,865
—
$1,023,865
—
—
2
—
2021-12-31
$170,007
$-1,255,943
$1,435,792
—
—
1
—
2020-12-31
$1,001,324
—
$1,001,324
—
—
1
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
35
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 21111
acs median gross
0
$932
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21111
fmr
0
$966
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21111
acs median gross
1
$954
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21111
fmr
1
$1,047
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21111
acs median gross
2
$1,169
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21111
fmr
2
$1,272
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21111
acs median gross
3
$1,385
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21111
fmr
3
$1,625
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21111
acs median gross
4
$1,591
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21111
fmr
4
$1,891
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 21111
acs median gross
5
$1,619
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21111
acs median gross
$1,149
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 21111
acs recent mover gross
$1,269
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40245
acs median gross
0
$1,469
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40245
acs median gross
1
$1,426
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40245
acs median gross
2
$1,682
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40245
acs median gross
3
$2,232
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40245
acs median gross
4
$2,334
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40245
acs median gross
$1,688
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 40245
acs recent mover gross
$1,696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 40245
payment standard 110
0
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
payment standard 90
0
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
safmr
0
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
payment standard 110
1
$1,639
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
payment standard 90
1
$1,341
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
safmr
1
$1,490
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
payment standard 110
2
$1,980
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
payment standard 90
2
$1,620
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
safmr
2
$1,800
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
payment standard 110
3
$2,530
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
payment standard 90
3
$2,070
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
safmr
3
$2,300
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
payment standard 110
4
$2,948
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
payment standard 90
4
$2,412
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 40245
safmr
4
$2,680
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.