Reads as: riskier than 22.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
MUSTAKLEM MARWAN
17 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
IN median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.66
2.85
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.56
0.40
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.63
2.71
3.11
—
Weekday total
2.67
2.90
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
86.2
2.66
0.56
0.32
1.78
2.63
0.0%
2025Q3
92
85.5
2.96
0.69
0.30
1.97
2.89
0.0%
2025Q2
91
81.4
2.91
0.56
0.38
1.97
2.81
0.0%
2025Q1
90
85.1
2.73
0.39
0.49
1.85
2.78
0.0%
2024Q4
92
82.5
2.79
0.44
0.49
1.86
2.81
0.0%
2024Q3
92
81.5
2.84
0.40
0.49
1.95
2.87
0.0%
2024Q2
91
82.6
2.91
0.37
0.57
1.97
2.78
0.0%
2024Q1
91
86.0
2.81
0.40
0.57
1.85
2.75
0.0%
2023Q4
92
84.1
2.81
0.44
0.58
1.79
2.80
0.0%
2023Q3
92
87.1
2.94
0.44
0.54
1.97
2.99
0.0%
2023Q2
91
86.0
2.73
0.23
0.69
1.82
2.62
0.0%
2023Q1
90
89.4
2.49
0.21
0.69
1.59
2.52
0.0%
2022Q4
92
88.7
2.61
0.29
0.58
1.74
2.52
0.0%
2022Q3
92
86.2
2.66
0.22
0.65
1.78
2.58
0.0%
2022Q2
91
85.6
2.38
0.15
0.70
1.52
2.29
0.0%
2022Q1
90
81.0
2.40
0.18
0.76
1.47
2.19
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
9
D × 9
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-23
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2026-02-25
2026-01-23
Health
F0641
Ensure each resident receives an accurate assessment.
D
2026-02-25
2026-01-23
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2026-02-25
2026-01-23
Health
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
D
2026-02-25
2026-01-23
Health
F0791
Provide or obtain dental services for each resident.
D
2026-02-25
2025-01-27
Health · complaint
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2025-02-13
2025-01-27
Health · complaint
F0697
Provide safe, appropriate pain management for a resident who requires such services.
D
2025-02-13
2023-11-17
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
D
2023-12-08
2023-11-17
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
D
2023-12-08
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
50
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
AMERICAN SENIOR COMMUNITIES LLC
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-19
current
pecos_ownership
CHIES, STEVEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
DICE, MARK
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
DYNES, SHELDON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-04-27
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, BLAKE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, ETHAN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, MARK
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, MICHAEL
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-05-14
current
pecos_ownership
JACKSON, WESSLEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
JUSTICE, DAVID
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
KELSEY, DONNA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-18
current
pecos_ownership
MUSTAKLEM, MARWAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
MUSTAKLEM, MARWAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-19
current
pecos_ownership
PIDGEON, JOHN
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
RING, BRIAN
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-08-01
current
pecos_ownership
RYBOLT, SHERRI
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHANE, ANDREW
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-02-01
current
pecos_ownership
SHORE, MARION
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-01-01
current
pecos_ownership
STITLE, STEPHEN
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
VAN CAMP, STEVEN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
current
pecos_ownership
WARE, DEBORAH
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2021-08-27
current
pecos_ownership
WARE, STACEY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
WARE, STACEY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-24
current
pecos_ownership
WRIGHT, THERESSA
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
current
pecos_ownership
BRIAN RING
CORPORATE OFFICER
0%
2022-08-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ANDREW SHANE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-02-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
BLAKE JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID JUSTICE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DEBORAH WARE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2021-08-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DONNA KELSEY
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-07-18
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
ETHAN JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JOHN PIDGEON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARION SHORE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK DICE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARK JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARWAN MUSTAKLEM
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-19
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MARWAN MUSTAKLEM
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MICHAEL JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2024-05-14
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHELDON DYNES
TRUSTEE OF THE SNF
—
2013-01-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SHERRI RYBOLT
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACEY WARE
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STACEY WARE
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2025-03-24
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEPHEN STITLE
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN CHIES
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
STEVEN VAN CAMP
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2023-06-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
THERESSA WRIGHT
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WESSLEY JACKSON
MANAGING CONTROL - GOVERNING BODY
—
2022-10-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
6
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2024-12-31
$1,427,122
$834,185
—
—
—
0
—
2023-12-31
$1,410,092
$809,947
—
—
—
0
—
2022-12-31
$364,552
$201,156
—
—
—
14
—
2022-09-30
$463,438
—
—
—
—
13
—
2021-12-31
$600,038
—
—
—
—
14
—
2020-12-31
$555,413
—
—
—
—
14
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2022-10-01
—
HENRY COUNTY MEMORIAL HOSPITAL
THE HEALTH AND HOSPITAL CORPORATION OF MARION COUNTY
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 18041
acs median gross
0
$775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18041
fmr
0
$659
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18041
acs median gross
1
$683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18041
fmr
1
$754
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18041
acs median gross
2
$815
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18041
fmr
2
$956
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18041
acs median gross
3
$948
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18041
fmr
3
$1,184
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18041
acs median gross
4
$1,019
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18041
fmr
4
$1,266
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 18041
acs median gross
5
$1,530
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18041
acs median gross
$791
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 18041
acs recent mover gross
$851
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47331
acs median gross
0
$775
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47331
acs median gross
1
$683
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47331
acs median gross
2
$812
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47331
acs median gross
3
$939
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47331
acs median gross
4
$1,019
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47331
acs median gross
5
$1,530
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47331
acs median gross
$789
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 47331
acs recent mover gross
$851
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 47331
payment standard 110
0
$726
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
payment standard 90
0
$594
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
safmr
0
$660
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
payment standard 110
1
$836
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
payment standard 90
1
$684
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
safmr
1
$760
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
payment standard 110
2
$1,056
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
payment standard 90
2
$864
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
safmr
2
$960
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
payment standard 110
3
$1,386
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
payment standard 90
3
$1,134
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
safmr
3
$1,260
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
payment standard 110
4
$1,628
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
payment standard 90
4
$1,332
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 47331
safmr
4
$1,480
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.