VILLAGE PLACE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER
snfFL
2370 HARBOR BLVD, PORT CHARLOTTE, FL 33952 · CCN 106072 · chain COPPER FL TRUST II
Composite
95.9 / 100 percentile
Peer group
snf n = 14,684
Evidence depth
deep
Certified beds
104
Model
v1.2
Reads as: riskier than 95.9% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
1
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
5 chains
SHELBY JACK
31 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
11
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
FL median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
3.77
3.42
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.28
0.45
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
3.54
3.31
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.86
3.48
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
95.9
3.77
0.28
1.07
2.42
3.54
1.5%
2025Q3
92
97.1
3.63
0.34
0.94
2.36
3.40
0.0%
2025Q2
91
98.3
3.47
0.28
0.91
2.29
3.41
0.0%
2025Q1
90
99.0
3.35
0.34
0.80
2.22
3.34
0.0%
2024Q4
92
95.4
3.33
0.39
0.74
2.20
3.32
0.4%
2024Q3
92
90.3
3.60
0.49
0.83
2.29
3.58
0.0%
2024Q2
91
69.7
3.59
0.40
0.99
2.21
3.45
0.0%
2024Q1
91
14.0
3.51
0.46
0.82
2.23
3.45
0.0%
2022Q3
92
98.3
3.77
0.32
0.99
2.45
3.59
0.0%
2022Q2
91
100.1
3.66
0.30
0.85
2.51
3.67
0.0%
2022Q1
90
96.7
3.86
0.33
0.90
2.63
3.76
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
J
2025-07-25
2025-06-11
Health · complaint
F0602
Protect each resident from the wrongful use of the resident's belongings or money.
E
2025-07-25
2025-06-11
Health · complaint
F0689
Ensure that a nursing home area is free from accident hazards and provides adequate supervision to prevent accidents.
J
2025-07-25
2025-06-11
Health · complaint
F0726
Ensure that nurses and nurse aides have the appropriate competencies to care for every resident in a way that maximizes each resident's well being.
J
2025-07-25
2025-06-11
Health · complaint
F0835
Administer the facility in a manner that enables it to use its resources effectively and efficiently.
J
2025-07-25
2024-06-20
Health · complaint
F0557
Honor the resident's right to be treated with respect and dignity and to retain and use personal possessions.
D
2024-07-20
2024-06-20
Health · complaint
F0580
Immediately tell the resident, the resident's doctor, and a family member of situations (injury/decline/room, etc.) that affect the resident.
D
2024-07-20
2024-06-20
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2024-07-20
2024-06-20
Health
F0657
Develop the complete care plan within 7 days of the comprehensive assessment; and prepared, reviewed, and revised by a team of health professionals.
D
2024-07-20
2024-06-20
Health
F0677
Provide care and assistance to perform activities of daily living for any resident who is unable.
E
2024-07-20
2024-06-20
Health · complaint
F0684
Provide appropriate treatment and care according to orders, resident’s preferences and goals.
E
2024-07-20
2024-06-20
Health
F0686
Provide appropriate pressure ulcer care and prevent new ulcers from developing.
D
2024-07-20
2024-06-20
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2024-07-20
2024-06-20
Health
F0880
Provide and implement an infection prevention and control program.
E
2024-07-20
2022-06-16
Health
F0565
Honor the resident's right to organize and participate in resident/family groups in the facility.
E
2022-07-14
2022-06-16
Health
F0577
Allow residents to easily view the nursing home's survey results and communicate with advocate agencies.
D
2022-07-14
2022-06-16
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
D
2022-07-14
2022-06-16
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
D
2022-07-14
2022-06-16
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2022-07-14
2022-06-16
Health
F0761
Ensure drugs and biologicals used in the facility are labeled in accordance with currently accepted professional principles; and all drugs and biologicals must be stored in locked compartments, separately locked, compartments for controlled drugs.
D
2022-07-14
2022-06-16
Health
F0825
Provide or get specialized rehabilitative services as required for a resident.
D
2022-07-14
2021-01-07
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2021-02-06
2021-01-07
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
E
2021-02-06
2021-01-07
Health
F0685
Assist a resident in gaining access to vision and hearing services.
D
2021-02-06
2021-01-07
Health
F0688
Provide appropriate care for a resident to maintain and/or improve range of motion (ROM), limited ROM and/or mobility, unless a decline is for a medical reason.
D
2021-02-06
2021-01-07
Health
F0808
Ensure therapeutic diets are prescribed by the attending physician and may be delegated to a registered or licensed dietitian, to the extent allowed by State law.
D
2021-02-06
2021-01-07
Health
F0881
Implement a program that monitors antibiotic use.
D
2021-02-06
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
10
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
FL MASTER OPCO HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
VILLAGE SNF HOLDCO LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
100%
2022-03-23
current
pecos_ownership
SHELBY, JACK
CORPORATE OFFICER
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
SHEPARD, MELISSA
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
—
2022-07-27
current
pecos_ownership
2370 HARBOR BLVD LLC
Corporation, partnership or other organization has financial interest in provider
100%
2020-02-01
ended 2021-01-31
hcris_a_8_1
JACK SHELBY
CORPORATE OFFICER
100%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
MELISSA SHEPARD
W-2 MANAGING EMPLOYEE
100%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
GOLD FL TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
SILVER FL TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
45%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
COPPER FL TRUST II
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2022-07-27
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
1
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2021-01-31
$1,218,762
—
$678,902
—
—
13
propco
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
1
Close date
Price
Buyer
Seller
Evidence
2022-07-27
—
VILLAGE PLACE HEALTHCARE AND REHABILITATION CENTER LLC
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
33
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 12015
acs median gross
0
$1,333
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12015
fmr
0
$1,159
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12015
acs median gross
1
$1,085
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12015
fmr
1
$1,167
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12015
acs median gross
2
$1,396
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12015
fmr
2
$1,470
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12015
acs median gross
3
$1,690
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12015
fmr
3
$2,041
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12015
acs median gross
4
$2,144
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12015
fmr
4
$2,326
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 12015
acs median gross
$1,464
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 12015
acs recent mover gross
$1,860
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33952
acs median gross
0
$3,501
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33952
acs median gross
1
$1,045
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33952
acs median gross
2
$1,307
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33952
acs median gross
3
$1,703
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33952
acs median gross
$1,478
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 33952
acs recent mover gross
$1,701
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 33952
payment standard 110
0
$1,199
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
payment standard 90
0
$981
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
safmr
0
$1,090
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
payment standard 110
1
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
payment standard 90
1
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
safmr
1
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
payment standard 110
2
$1,518
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
payment standard 90
2
$1,242
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
safmr
2
$1,380
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
payment standard 110
3
$2,112
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
payment standard 90
3
$1,728
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
safmr
3
$1,920
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
payment standard 110
4
$2,398
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
payment standard 90
4
$1,962
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 33952
safmr
4
$2,180
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.