Reads as: riskier than 8.3% of the 14,684 facilities in the snf peer group. percentile within peer group, 100 = highest risk. Grade bands are fixed percentile cuts (F is the top 5% of peer risk), so a grade is a position, not an absolute level.
weighted_contribution sums to pre_rank_index over rows where counts_toward_index is true. The composite is the facility's percentile position of that index within its peer group, so contributions explain the input, and the rank explains the score.
ML signals — parallel engine
12
Kind
Finding
Signal
Subject
First seen
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+28.0 vs natl
MAHRT DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+23.0 vs natl
MYERS WALTER
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+21.9 vs natl
SWAIN JARED
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.7 vs natl
COTTONWOOD HEALTHCARE LLC
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet risk far above national
+20.0 vs natl
MYERS KATIE
16 facilities
connection
Owner spans multiple chains
6 chains
REDDY VIKAS
13 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
55% fined
MAHRT DAVID
11 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
50% fined
MYERS KATIE
16 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
47% fined
SWAIN JARED
19 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
47% fined
SWAIN HOLLY
15 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
MYERS WALTER
22 facilities
connection
Owner fleet enforcement cluster
41% fined
COTTONWOOD HEALTHCARE LLC
22 facilities
Findings from the always-on scanning layer: anomalies on this facility, connections through its current owners and past buyers. Runs beside the deterministic composite, never inside it. Full board on the ML Lab page.
Change-of-ownership footprint in the CMS Provider of Services file: control-family, legal-name and address deltas across quarterly snapshots, plus certification reset recency and Medicare tenure.
R23/W4-3. Deterministic logistic p(Medicare termination within 12m), SNF only. Label = first POS termination date (any code: voluntary closure, involuntary termination, merger exit); facilities already terminated by the panel date are excluded, not counted as safe. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=46,466, 283 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x, top-decile capture 95.4% of the 65 terminations that followed. Separability is high because closures announce themselves in the data: collapsing occupancy is the strongest signal, and the learned NEGATIVE weight on 12m deficiency counts is the surveys-stop signature of a facility winding down, not a claim that clean inspections are dangerous. Same 15 as-of-date features and anti-leakage chassis as p_chow_12m; SFF entry rejected as a label (only one month of SFF history exists, so as-of transitions cannot be reconstructed). Score = probability x 100; grade NULL. Not in any composite.
R22/W4-2. Deterministic logistic p(CHOW within 12m), SNF only. Trained on panels 2024-07/2024-10/2025-01 (n=50,700, 1,207 positives), evaluated on the held-out later panel 2025-04 BEFORE shipping: AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x (top 10% of predictions captured 49.6% of the CHOWs that actually closed in the next 12 months). Shipped coefficients are the evaluated ones; no post-holdout refit. Caveat: holdout positives (133) run below the training base rate because recent CHOWs surface in public records with a lag, so measured lift is conservative. Features are as-of-date public records: PBJ staffing level/trend/contract share (quarterly history to 2022Q1), deficiency and CMP counts (12m), ownership tenure and churn from CHOW-evidenced transactions, beds, occupancy, ownership type, chain size. Chain membership and ownership type are current-state (history not published). SFF and star ratings deliberately excluded (no as-of history). Notable learned direction: long ownership tenure RAISES sale odds and a recent prior CHOW lowers them. Score = probability x 100; grade is NULL because a probability is not a quality letter. Not in any composite.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later financial_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later regulatory_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Pre-registry model iteration, superseded by a later staffing_risk rebuild. Rows retained for audit per project convention (see regulatory_risk v0.4-pos); never consumed because v_cii_api_facility_score and the composite eligibility join both require status = default. Backfilled 2026-07-26 by alert triage on model_registry_integrity.
Rows with counts_toward_composite false come from models that are addressable or retracted rather than default. They exist and may be informative, but they did not enter the published composite and must not be summed as though they had.
p_adverse_action_12m: probability the facility's Medicare participation terminates within 12 months (any POS termination code; already-terminated facilities are excluded, not scored safe). Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.971, top-decile lift 9.5x. Closures announce themselves: collapsing occupancy dominates, and fewer recent surveys is a winding-down signature. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models. | p_chow_12m: probability of a change of ownership within 12 months. Deterministic logistic over as-of-date public records, SNF only. Holdout (2025-04 panel, evaluated before shipping): AUC 0.874, top-decile lift 5.0x. inputs.features holds raw feature values, inputs.contributions each feature's standardized pull on the log-odds. Predictions never enter the composite. See /v1/models for full notes.
Probability the facility's Medicare participation ends within 12 months, from public records only. Red bars raise exit odds. A negative pull from deficiencies is the winding-down signature — surveys stop as a facility empties — not evidence that clean inspections are dangerous.
Staffing vs peers
16
2025Q4 HPRD
This facility
CO median
National median
National p25–p75
Total nurse
2.97
3.19
3.28
2.90–3.77
RN
0.63
0.57
0.39
0.25–0.58
Weekend total
2.64
3.02
3.11
—
Weekday total
3.10
3.27
3.35
—
Quarter
Days
Avg census
Total HPRD
RN
LPN
CNA
Weekend
Contract %
2025Q4
92
89.1
2.97
0.63
0.49
1.85
2.64
0.0%
2025Q3
92
86.1
2.91
0.74
0.32
1.85
2.68
0.0%
2025Q2
91
86.0
2.81
0.73
0.37
1.71
2.50
0.0%
2025Q1
90
82.3
2.63
0.74
0.32
1.56
2.53
0.0%
2024Q4
92
82.5
2.70
0.83
0.22
1.64
2.64
0.0%
2024Q3
92
81.5
2.64
0.69
0.32
1.63
2.58
0.1%
2024Q2
91
77.8
2.86
0.68
0.39
1.79
2.74
10.5%
2024Q1
91
83.5
2.79
0.74
0.39
1.66
2.68
21.2%
2023Q4
92
77.5
2.57
0.75
0.34
1.49
2.48
16.2%
2023Q3
92
82.7
1.81
0.38
0.33
1.11
1.73
19.6%
2023Q2
91
84.3
2.54
0.64
0.42
1.48
2.48
11.3%
2023Q1
90
85.6
2.44
0.76
0.30
1.39
2.46
7.3%
2022Q4
92
83.9
2.38
0.50
0.34
1.53
2.35
0.2%
2022Q3
92
84.2
2.49
0.65
0.34
1.50
2.36
0.0%
2022Q2
91
77.0
2.56
0.71
0.29
1.56
2.47
0.0%
2022Q1
90
71.8
2.89
0.78
0.40
1.71
2.69
0.0%
HPRD is census-weighted: total hours over the quarter divided by total resident-days, not an average of daily ratios. Source is CMS Payroll-Based Journal daily records; only SNFs report PBJ, so other settings legitimately return zero rows.
Penalties
0
No penalties on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Deficiencies
17
D × 8E × 6F × 3
deficiencies by survey year
Survey
Type
Tag
Deficiency
Scope
Corrected
2026-01-28
Health · complaint
F0600
Protect each resident from all types of abuse such as physical, mental, sexual abuse, physical punishment, and neglect by anybody.
D
2026-02-20
2025-12-11
Health · complaint
F0550
Honor the resident's right to a dignified existence, self-determination, communication, and to exercise his or her rights.
E
2026-01-15
2024-09-19
Health
F0623
Provide timely notification to the resident, and if applicable to the resident representative and ombudsman, before transfer or discharge, including appeal rights.
D
2024-10-30
2024-09-19
Health
F0625
Notify the resident or the resident’s representative in writing how long the nursing home will hold the resident’s bed in cases of transfer to a hospital or therapeutic leave.
D
2024-10-30
2024-09-19
Health
F0656
Develop and implement a complete care plan that meets all the resident's needs, with timetables and actions that can be measured.
E
2024-10-30
2024-09-19
Health
F0679
Provide activities to meet all resident's needs.
D
2024-10-30
2024-09-19
Health
F0755
Provide pharmaceutical services to meet the needs of each resident and employ or obtain the services of a licensed pharmacist.
E
2024-10-30
2024-09-19
Health
F0801
Employ sufficient staff with the appropriate competencies and skills sets to carry out the functions of the food and nutrition service, including a qualified dietician.
F
2024-10-30
2024-09-19
Health
F0803
Ensure menus must meet the nutritional needs of residents, be prepared in advance, be followed, be updated, be reviewed by dietician, and meet the needs of the resident.
E
2024-10-30
2024-09-19
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2024-10-30
2023-05-09
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
D
2023-05-24
2023-05-09
Health
F0585
Honor the resident's right to voice grievances without discrimination or reprisal and the facility must establish a grievance policy and make prompt efforts to resolve grievances.
E
2023-05-24
2023-05-09
Health
F0660
Plan the resident's discharge to meet the resident's goals and needs.
D
2023-05-24
2023-05-09
Health
F0695
Provide safe and appropriate respiratory care for a resident when needed.
D
2023-05-24
2023-05-09
Health
F0758
Implement gradual dose reductions(GDR) and non-pharmacological interventions, unless contraindicated, prior to initiating or instead of continuing psychotropic medication; and PRN orders for psychotropic medications are only used when the medication is necessary and PRN use is limited.
D
2023-05-24
2023-05-09
Health
F0812
Procure food from sources approved or considered satisfactory and store, prepare, distribute and serve food in accordance with professional standards.
F
2023-05-24
2022-02-01
Health
F0561
Honor the resident's right to and the facility must promote and facilitate resident self-determination through support of resident choice.
E
2022-02-25
scope_severity uses the CMS letter grid: A is least serious, L most. J, K and L are immediate jeopardy. Rows are the surveyor's findings of record, not the model's opinion.
Licensure actions
0
No licensure actions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Ownership
20
Owner
Role
Pct
From
Status
Source
COTTONWOOD HEALTHCARE LLC
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HIENEMAN, CATHY
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
HIENEMAN, CATHY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
MAHRT, DAVID
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, KATIE
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MYERS, WALTER
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
REDDY, VIKAS
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-23
current
pecos_ownership
SWAIN, HOLLY
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
SWAIN, JARED
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
—
2024-09-01
current
pecos_ownership
MAZE FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
50%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CHARLY BELLO FAMILY LIMITED PARTNERSHIP
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
40%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
WALTER MYERS
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
25%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
KATIE MYERS
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
24%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
JARED SWAIN
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
20%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
HOLLY SWAIN
INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
19%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PICKD LLC
5% OR GREATER DIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
10%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
DAVID MAHRT
5% OR GREATER INDIRECT OWNERSHIP INTEREST
0%
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHY HIENEMAN
OPERATIONAL/MANAGERIAL CONTROL
—
2024-09-01
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
CATHY HIENEMAN
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
VIKAS REDDY
ADP OF THE SNF
—
2026-01-23
ended 2026-05-18
pecos_ownership
PECOS ownership and managing-control associations. Current edges have no end date in the source; historical edges are retained.
Related-party costs
4
FY end
Total allowable
Rent
Home office
Therapy
Staffing
Counterparties
PropCo
2022-12-31
$358,186
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-12-31
$74,794
—
—
—
—
1
—
2021-09-30
$512,673
—
$512,673
—
—
2
—
2020-09-30
$408,959
—
$408,959
—
—
3
—
Cost-report related-party spend by fiscal year. has_propco flags real-estate counterparties.
Transactions
0
No transactions on record for this facility. Absence of a record here means the sources CII ingests contain none, not that none exists anywhere.
Most recent same-state, same-setting trades. Most CHOW-derived trades carry no disclosed consideration, so price, $/bed, and cap rate show only where a sale price was resolved from a deed or filing — blanks are honest, not missing data.
Market rent context
36
Geo
Kind
BR
Amount
As of
Source
county 08041
acs median gross
0
$1,103
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
0
$1,196
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
1
$1,390
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
1
$1,464
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
2
$1,587
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
2
$1,735
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
3
$2,072
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
3
$2,413
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
4
$2,304
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
fmr
4
$2,744
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_FMR
county 08041
acs median gross
5
$2,786
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
acs median gross
$1,696
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
county 08041
acs recent mover gross
$1,853
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80910
acs median gross
0
$1,075
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80910
acs median gross
1
$1,156
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80910
acs median gross
2
$1,403
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80910
acs median gross
3
$1,934
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80910
acs median gross
4
$1,949
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80910
acs median gross
5
$1,819
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80910
acs median gross
$1,361
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zcta 80910
acs recent mover gross
$1,408
2024-12-31
CENSUS_ACS5
zip 80910
payment standard 110
0
$1,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
payment standard 90
0
$990
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
safmr
0
$1,100
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
payment standard 110
1
$1,474
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
payment standard 90
1
$1,206
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
safmr
1
$1,340
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
payment standard 110
2
$1,749
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
payment standard 90
2
$1,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
safmr
2
$1,590
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
payment standard 110
3
$2,431
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
payment standard 90
3
$1,989
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
safmr
3
$2,210
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
payment standard 110
4
$2,772
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
payment standard 90
4
$2,268
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
zip 80910
safmr
4
$2,520
2025-10-01
HUD_USER_SAFMR
ACS median gross rents and HUD FMR/SAFMR for the facility's county and ZIP. Context for underwriting, not facility pricing.